The UFC 280 main card features five bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. It will be capped by a bout for the vacant lightweight championship between former champion Charles Oliveira (pictured far left) and rising contender Islam Makhachev (pictured second from left). It will also see the bantamweight belt be contested between current champion Aljamain Sterling (pictured center left) and former champion TJ Dillashaw (pictured center right). All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

The previews for the prelim cards can be found HERE and HERE.

[1] Katlyn Chookagian vs. [8] Manon Fiorot (Women’s Flyweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Death, taxes, and Chookagian (#1 CC, #1 UFC) by decision are a few of the earthly certainties that exist. Chookagian has been an effective gatekeeper in the flyweight division, cutting down almost all prospects who’d hoped to step over her en route to a title shot. She doesn’t do it in exciting fashion, but with the exception of Jessica Andrade (#3/sw CC, #4 UFC), no one not named Shevchenko has been able to dispatch her in the last four years. Fiorot (#8 CC, #6 UFC) is looking to change this and ascend to greatness herself. She has uncommon power for this division and can end a fight at any time. However, it was telling how close her last fight was with Jennifer Maia (#15 CC, #8 UFC). Fiorot was a heavy favorite, but Maia made it close. Chookagian’s weight miss notwithstanding, if the same Fiorot that showed up against Maia shows up at UFC 280, Cookagian will add another would-be contender to her resume.

Editor’s Pick: Chookagian

[5] Beneil Dariush vs. [6] Mateusz Gamrot (Men’s Lightweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Expect a grappling clinic in this one. Dariush (#5 CC, #6 UFC) has been on a tear, winning seven straight. A lot of that is owed to his great ground game, but he has been known to make fireworks with his hands (the very first clip of Joe Rogan and Daniel Cormier falling over each other was due to a Dariush spinning backfist KO). Gamrot (#6 CC, #9 UFC) is coming off the biggest win of his career over Arman Tsarukyan (NR CC, #10 UFC). Gamrot was the smaller man, but was able to use technically magnificent scrambling to prevent Tsarukyan from controlling him on the ground. Age and speed will be working to his advantage in this bout and his skill set mitigates Dariush’s very well.

Editor’s Pick: Gamrot

[2] Petr Yan vs. [11] Sean O’Malley (Men’s Bantamweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Many believe Yan (#2 CC, #1 UFC) ought to be fighting in the next bout on this card, but alas he stands dethroned, having to work his way back. He is perhaps the best boxer in the UFC, with a standup game that wears down opponents and is as technically sound as you’ll find. This will be needed against the taller, longer O’Malley (#11 CC, #11 UFC), who is as big a threat on the feet as you’ll find. He has immense power and has routinely delivered one-punch KOs that stun the crowd. Barring an unfortunate no contest, this should be a fireworks show. As talented as O’Malley is, it is going to be tough to jump as high as Yan for his first real test. Expect some humility in this one.

Editor’s Pick: Yan

[C] Aljamain Sterling vs. [1] TJ Dillashaw (Men’s Bantamweight Championship)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Now that the controversy is behind him between his two fights with Petr Yan, Sterling can now focus on establishing his reign atop the bantamweight division. Sterling has long been known as one of the most talented wrestlers in the division, if not the UFC itself. He doesn’t have much power in his hands, but given his ground talent, he hasn’t needed much. His first post-Yan title defense comes against former champ and two-division contender, TJ Dillashaw (#1 CC, #2 UFC). Dillashaw, on the other hand, does have power in his hands and used it to establish his title reign back in the day. He’s now back at the top, looking to redeem himself after a positive PED test, which saw him suspended for a while. Expect Dillashaw’s power could keep Sterling a little more timid shooting takedowns. If the fight stays standing, Dillashaw will have the advantage and he will once again reclaim his old belt.

Editor’s Pick: Dillashaw

[1] Charles Oliveira vs. [3] Islam Makhachev (Men’s Lightweight Championship)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Though the belt is vacant, many rightly view Oliveira (#1 CC, #1 UFC) as the defending champ. Were it not for a half-pound weight miss in May, he would be. He’s the hottest lightweight on the planet and is entering the conversation as the greatest the division’s ever seen. He holds the most finishes in UFC history and is showing no signs of slowing down. He has the most dangerous submission game in the sport today. He now faces off against Islam Makhachev (#3 CC, #4 UFC). Makhachev is being billed as the second coming of former champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, who is routinely listed as one of the greatest of all-time. Makhachev has an effortless takedown and his top pressure is relentless. It’s said as if it feels like a middleweight is on top of you. On top of that Makhachev has shown power that his mentor Nurmagomedov never quite had. Both fighters may look to get this fight to the ground and go to work. The question remains whether Makhachev’s pressure or Oliveira’s quick transitions will win the day. Given that Makhachev has a good combination of both, there’s a reason he comes in as the favorite of oddsmakers, despite Oliveira’s higher ranking.

Editor’s Pick: Makhachev

Photo Credit: UFC