The month of August is officially in the books! The month saw a new champion rise in the welterweight division, coupled with the fall of one of the pound-for-pound best in the world.

Through the 35 fights on the UFC’s three August cards, the Cage Calculus forecast favorites went 14-19-2, bringing the forecast’s overall record since its inception to 307-201-4. All forecast projections are based on a fighter’s CC rating. You can find out how those ratings are generated HERE. The CC Editor’s Picks were 17-16-2 and the odds-on favorites according to Vegas were 19-14-2.

2022 Overall Standings

• Cage Calculus Forecast: 204-146-2
• Cage Calculus Editor Picks: 212-138-2
• Las Vegas Oddsmakers: 227-123-2

Without further ado, here’s what we learned from the UFC in August:

No One Is Invincible

August saw a couple of legends of the sport fall despite being heavy favorites in their respective bouts. Kamaru Usman (#1 CC, #1 UFC) is the most notable. He came in to his title defense as a 74.6 percent favorite according to the forecast. He was well on his way to backing that up before a perfect head kick by Leon Edwards ended his night and his title reign. He still sits as the #5 fighter in our Men’s Overall rankings, but has surrendered his belt.

UFC 278 also saw former featherweight champion, and top bantamweight contender Jose Aldo (#2 CC, #6 UFC) fall in defeat. Aldo had a 70.2 percent chance of defeating Merab Dvalishvili (#7 CC, #3 UFC) according to our forecast. This may well be the end for Aldo, as rumors are floating he may retire after this loss. He’ll still go down as one of the best of all-time, regardless of weight class.

The month also saw former bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz (#4 CC, #8 UFC), welterweight contender Vicente Luque (#7 CC, #10 UFC), and women’s strawweight contender Lupita Godinez fall in defeat despite being over 60 percent favorites according to the Cage Calculus forecast. All of this goes to show that the forecast merely produces probabilities and that on any given night, an underdog fighter can capitalize on the chance they have.

Certain Contenders Can Fly Undetected

The Cage Calculus forecast values active fighters who consistently win over higher-rated opponents and adds boosts for fighters who finish fights quickly. This allows certain fighters who have low finish rates and less experience to languish lower in the ratings for a while. The algorithm won’t pick up their true worth until they either string together a bunch of wins or start fighting higher competition. That is why fighters like the aforementioned Dvalishvili and Edwards, as well as fighters like Geoff Neal (NR CC, #6 UFC) and Marlon Vera (#5 CC, #5 UFC), are projected as heavy underdogs despite clear skill advantages that can be picked up just by watching fights.

This is part of the reason why the algorithm is dynamic. Fighters’ ratings change every time they fight and the rankings get shuffled. It’s also sensitive to new information, more so than other similar models. It is also why we added our “subjective spin on objective reality” and editor’s picks in the previews. Algorithms are informative tool, but not the end-all-be-all.

Under-the-Radar Names to Watch From August Fights

These fighters delivered solid wins and should be getting more respect in UFC rankings pictures than they are based on their CC Rating and recent performance. These fighters could be primed for big wins up the ladder soon.

• Cory McKenna
• Mayra Bueno Silva
• Nate Landwehr
• Yazmin Jauregui
• Amir Albazi
• Victor Altamirano

Photo Credit: CBS Sports