The UFC 278 prelim card features four bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. It will feature a high octane bantamweight bout between legend Jose Aldo and rising contender Merab Dvalishvili. It will also see the return of former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold against Paulo Costa. The main event will be for the welterweight championship between Kamaru Usman (pictured above left) and challenger Leon Edwards (pictured above right). All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

You can find the prelim previews HERE and HERE.

Tyson Pedro vs. Harry Hunsucker (Men’s Heavyweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: As evidenced by Pedro’s nearly identical rating and average opponent rating, he wins when he’s supposed to win and loses when he’s supposed to lose. This is one he’s supposed to win, as Hunsucker is currently vying for the title of lowest-rated heavyweight. Pedro’s move up shouldn’t be an issue and he should maintain his perfect finish rate.

Editor’s Pick: Pedro

Lucie Pudilova vs. Wu Yanan (Women’s Bantamweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: After a rough 2-5 start to her UFC career, Pudilova was cut and went back to fight in her native Czech Republic. She went 5-1 there and has earned her way back to the UFC. Yanan is also having a tough go in the UFC, being just 1-4. However, the difference maker may well be Yanan’s uncanny finishing ability for this division and the fact that Pudilova has not fought UFC-caliber talent in over two-and-a-half years.

Editor’s Pick: Yanan

[2] Jose Aldo vs. [15] Merab Dvalishvili (Men’s Bantamweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Aldo (#2 CC, #3 UFC) is one of the few men who can claim to be the greatest of all-time in the UFC. He could retire today and still go down as one of the best. Now, he’s back on a win streak in a new division, looking to get a crack at the belt. Up-and-comer Dvalishvili (#15 CC, #6 UFC) might have something to say about that. However, Dvalishvili is not a finishing threat to Aldo, and Aldo has proven he can outpoint younger bantamweights (with wins over Marlon Vera and Rob Font recently) to a decision. The veteran is not getting the credit he deserves in this bout that has “fight of the night” written all over it.

Editor’s Pick: Aldo

[9] Luke Rockhold vs. [12] Paulo Costa (Men’s Middleweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: In all honesty, this is the best possible matchup for Costa (#12 CC, #6 UFC) coming off a fight where he missed weight by over 20 pounds and still lost. Rockhold (#9 CC, NR UFC) is a very chinny fighter, who is susceptible to the kind of KO power Costa brings to the table. It’s been a while since Rockhold’s fought and even longer since he’s won. Unless the time off at American Kickboxing Academy has paid dividends, it looks like Costa will be able to successfully KO hunt Rockhold’s, whose CC Rating is buoyed by the fact he’s a former division champ.

Editor’s Pick: Costa

[C] Kamaru Usman vs. [2] Leon Edwards (Men’s Welterweight Championship)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: These are two of the hottest fighters in the welterweight division right now. Usman has not lost in the UFC, and his only career defeat came in May of 2013. Edwards (#2 CC, #2 UFC) has not lost since December 2015, when he was defeated by Usman himself. Usman now reigns as the UFC’s pound-for-pound best. Edwards wants revenge for his prior loss. Since that first fight, Usman has gotten leaps and bounds better, looking almost invincible, while Edwards has still shown some holes in his game (notably almost getting KO’d by Nate Diaz). Expect the best to stay that way tonight.

Editor’s Pick: Usman

Photo Credit: UFC