The UFC 277 main card features five bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. It will feature a bout between former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno (pictured above middle right) and top contender Kai Kara-France (pictured above far right) for the interim flyweight championship. The card is then headlined by a rematch between women’s bantamweight champion Julianna Pena (pictured above far left) and former champ and current women’s featherweight champion Amanda Nunes (pictured above middle left). All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

You can find the previews for the prelim cards HERE and HERE.

[4] Magomed Ankalaev vs. [3] Anthony Smith (Men’s Light Heavyweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: One second is all that separates Ankalaev (#4 CC, #4 UFC) from being a perfect 18-0 as a pro. He was submitted via leg triangle with 4:59 off the clock in the third and final round of his UFC debut against Paul Craig (#6 CC, #8 UFC). Every other second of his UFC career has been absolute dominance. The Dagestani phenom has heavy power in his hands and has demonstrated an ability to control the fight on the ground if he has to. He’ll face the veteran prolific finisher Smith (#3 CC, #5 UFC). Smith has finished a whopping 34 fights in his career. He’s now won three in a row, all by first round stoppage. Smith has faced a murderer’s row of light heavyweights during his time in the UFC. That includes a title shot against Jon Jones. Both men will no doubt be looking for a finish, trying to impress the UFC brass and earn a title shot against Jiri Prochazka. Smith can’t win a decision against the dynamic, younger Ankalaev and will need to hunt a finish. That will likely open him up to a KO blow coming at him or tire him out to allow Ankalaev to control this for all 15 minutes. Expect more dominance from the Dagestani.

Editor’s Pick: Ankalaev

[2] Alexandre Pantoja vs. [3] Alex Perez (Men’s Flyweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Pantoja (#2 CC, #4 UFC) has come close to the flyweight mountaintop a number of times, but is always just on the outside. Still, he has a number of wins against fighters in the top 15 of this division. He also has displayed a number of different ways he can end a fight. He’s scary and with the division’s interim belt going on the line just after him, he might be even more motivated to make a statement. Perez (#3 CC, #6 UFC) has made it to a title shot, losing by first round submission to the champ, Deiveson Figueiredo. This will be his first fight since that loss in November 2020. Perez also varies his finishes. These are two very similar fighters. The slight differences are that Pantoja has a higher finish rate and Perez has fought, on average, better opponents. This fight will be close, but the ring rust might be a factor tipping the scales toward Pantoja and getting him closer to an elusive title shot.

Editor’s Pick: Pantoja

[4] Derrick Lewis vs. [11] Sergei Pavlovich (Men’s Heavyweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Lewis (#4 CC, #5 UFC) is the UFC’s all-time leader in KOs. Having been KO’d himself in two of his last three, he’s sliding away from the title picture, which would lend him a third shot at UFC gold. However, he still has nuclear power in his hands and only ever needs one punch to win a fight. However, faster fighters have proven difficult if Lewis can’t square them up. And, his last loss to Tai Tuivasa (#6 CC, #3 UFC), a fellow KO seeker is a discouraging sign. Pavlovich has delivered two straight first round KOs before taking nearly three years off due to injury and a variety of visa issues. He managed to pick up where he left off this March when he delivered another first round KO. Pavlovich’s style is one that could cause issues for a fighter like Lewis, he just has to be careful about getting too close.

Editor’s Pick: Pavlovich

[1] Brandon Moreno vs. [5] Kai Kara-France (Men’s Interim Flyweight Championship)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: After going 1-1-1 in his trilogy with Deiveson Figueiredo, Moreno (#1 CC, #1 UFC) will look to earn a tetralogy with the champ by earning this interim belt. Moreno has proven to be a different fighter since he was cut by the UFC years ago. He’s became one of the foremost threats on the ground in the division. People didn’t give him much of a chance in his first two bouts with Figueiredo, but he proved more than game to handle the champ. The New Zealand native, Kara-France (#5 CC, #2 UFC) enters his first title shot in this one. He’s won each of his last three, showcasing some serious power for this division as well. He proved he could handle a grappler like Askar Askarov (#4 CC, #3 UFC) his last time out, which earned him this shot. The key difference could be Moreno’s power will have to be respected more than Askarov’s, which could open Kara-France up to more takedowns and submission threats.

Editor’s Pick: Moreno

[C] Julianna Pena vs. [1] Amanda Nunes (Women’s Bantamweight Championship)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: The rematch of the biggest upset in UFC history is finally here. We will be kinder this time. In our UFC 269 preview, we noted that Nunes was the biggest favorite in the history of the forecast and that there were a number of bantamweight contenders better suited for a title shot. Then Pena shocked the world and silenced the doubters (Cage Calculus included). Pena made it a dirty fight and eventually got it to the ground, where she’s been more comfortable in her career, having even submitted olympians. She’ll get more respect from the WMMA GOAT this time around. Nunes comes in looking to re-gain her second belt. She’s fought every women’s bantamweight champion in history and, with a win in the rematch, will have wins over all of them. There should be no expectation she’ll be daunted coming into this one.

Editor’s Pick: Nunes

Photo Credit: American Airlines Arena