The UFC Vegas 57 prelim card features six bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. It will be capped by a light heavyweight showdown between Tafon Nchukwi (pictured above right) and Carlos Ulberg (pictured above left). All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

Jinh Yu Frey vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (Women’s Strawweight)

Jinh Yu Frey

• Record: 11-6-0
• Division Ranking: 20/42 strawweights
• Vegas Odds: -230 (Favorite)

Vanessa Demopoulos

• Record: 7-4-0
• Division Ranking: 34/42 strawweights
• Vegas Odds: +190 (Underdog)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Frey will have a decided size advantage in this one, with a nearly six-inch reach advantage. This should be enough to mitigate whatever advantages Demopoulos might bring to the table. Frey should be able to control the fight wherever it takes place. She just has to watch being careless and getting caught in a quick submission, something Demopoulos has been good at.

Editor’s Pick: Frey

Mario Bautista vs. Brian Kelleher (Men’s Bantamweight)

Mario Bautista

• Record: 9-2-0
• Division Ranking: 46/70 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -170 (Favorite)

Brian Kelleher

• Record: 24-13-0
• Division Ranking: 37/70 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +145 (Underdog)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Kelleher can control this fight by getting it to the ground, where he has the wrestling advantage. He can use the power in his hands to set up the takedown. Bautista is also a knockout threat, but we’ve seen so many strikers get neutralized by wrestling and the judges usually play along.

Editor’s Pick: Kelleher

Cody Durden vs. JP Buys (Men’s Flyweight)

Cody Durden

• Record: 12-4-1
• Division Ranking: 35/39 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +100 (Underdog)

JP Buys

• Record: 9-4-0
• Division Ranking: 37/39 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -120 (Favorite)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Durden gassed out quickly en route to being finished by Muhammad Mokaev his last time out. Buys, despite still having zero UFC wins, will look to showcase the talent many hoped he’d show to rise up this division. If he can get it to the ground, Buys should be able to use the same playbook Mokaev rode to victory.

Editor’s Pick: Buys

Raulian Paiva vs. Sergey Morozov (Men’s Bantamweight)

Raulian Paiva

• Record: 21-4-0
• Division Ranking: 34/70 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +130 (Underdog)

Sergey Morozov

• Record: 17-5-0
• Division Ranking: 54/70 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -155 (Favorite)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Paiva is coming off a tough loss to Sean O’Malley (#12 CC, #13 UFC) his last time out. Prior, though, he was knocking on the door of the official UFC rankings and is a very well-rounded fighter. Morozov has likewise had a tough UFC schedule thus far being victimized by some excellent grapplers. With the fight staying on the feet, look for Paiva to do better with the range more in his comfort zone.

Editor’s Pick: Paiva

TJ Brown vs. Shayilan Neurdanbieke (Men’s Featherweight)

TJ Brown

• Record: 16-8-0
• Division Ranking: 68/68 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -195 (Favorite)

Shayilan Neurdanbieke

• Record: 37-10-0
• Division Ranking: 57/68 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +165 (Underdog)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Despite two consecutive wins, Brown still occupies the very bottom wrung on the Cage Calculus bantamweight ladder. He will be facing off against a smaller fighter in Neurdanbieke, who is coming off a win as well. Brown doesn’t typically deal well with adversity in the cage. Neurdanbieke needs to force a mistake to overcome his physical limitations.

Editor’s Pick: Neurdanbieke

Tafon Nchukwi vs. Carlos Ulberg (Men’s Light Heavyweight)

Tafon Nchukwi

• Record: 6-2-0
• Division Ranking: 35/38 light heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -120 (Favorite)

Carlos Ulberg

• Record: 6-1-0
• Division Ranking: 38/38 light heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +100 (Underdog)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This promises to be a delightful striking battle between two promising young light heavyweights. Ulberg reassured fans about his cardio by winning a decision his last time out. His defense still leaves a bit to be desired, but his offense is what understandably makes him a well-watched prospect. If he can utilize his height, he should be able to get the W, provided he doesn’t get careless.

Editor’s Pick: Ulberg

Photo Credit: MMA Fighting