It’s officially June. May had three action-packed fight cards in store. The men’s lightweight division saw an epic shakeup. We were treated to perhaps the worst title fight in the history of the promotion. And, a number of new faces cropped up on the horizon of potential future title shots. All this and more will be covered below.

Through the 36 fights on the UFC’s three May cards, the Cage Calculus forecast favorites went 17-19, bringing the forecast’s overall record since its inception to 223-141-2. All forecast projections are based on a fighter’s CC rating. You can find out how those ratings are generated HERE. The CC Editor’s Picks were 14-22 and the odds-on favorites according to Vegas were 19-17.

2022 Overall Standings

• Cage Calculus Forecast: 120-86
• Cage Calculus Editor Picks: 122-84
• Las Vegas Oddsmakers: 135-71

Without further ado, here’s what we learned from the UFC in May:

Lightweight Has a Champ and His Name is Oliveira

Doubts surrounded Charles Oliveira (#1 CC, #1 UFC) before his UFC 274 appearance. Would he still perform up to par even after missing weight? Could his style withstand the punching power of Justin Gaethje (#4 CC, #3 UFC)? The answers to both questions were an emphatic yes. Oliveira submitted Gaethje in the very first round after eating a number of high octane punches. Oliveira is not only beating the best lightweights in the world, but he is finishing them with seeming ease. He is far and away the best lightweight on the planet right now. He may not hold the belt because of his weight miss, but it’s clear he is in a tier of his own at the moment.

There is a Power Vacuum at Strawweight

Yes, Carla Esparza may have won the belt that was once hers and may be listed as the strawweight champion. However, looking at the data from that fight tells an ugly story. Esparza landed only 30 strikes over the entire 25 minute fight. For perspective, that is how many strikes Oliveira landed in the three minutes and 22 seconds he was in the cage with Gaethje. In the eyes of two of the three judges, Esparza’s 30 strikes, two takedowns, and 22 seconds of control time were enough to overcome Rose Namajunas (#1 CC, #1 UFC), who landed 38 strikes, one takedown, and had ten seconds of control time.

It’s hard to rightfully view Esparza as champion after that performance, despite officially owning the belt. Even the UFC’s official rankings only have Esparza as the third-rated strawweight in their pound-for-pound rankings. Esparza sits as the fourth-highest rated strawweight in the Cage Calculus rankings. The next title bout in this division should offer more clarity. Right now, it appears that the winner of the bout between former champs Joanna Jedrzejczyk (#5 CC, NR UFC) and Zhang Weili (#2 CC, #2 UFC) will get the first crack at Esparza. However, Marina Rodriguez (#4 CC, #3 UFC) has been as hot as anyone at strawweight lately.

Tony Ferguson Needs a Step Back

Ferguson (#9 CC, #9 UFC) has had a rough go of it lately, to say the least. He’s now lost four in a row and none of them were particularly close. However, those four losses came to four of the six men who occupy the top six spots in the UFC’s lightweight rankings. It’s not like he’s tallying up inexcusable losses to prospects. However, after getting slept this last time out, it might be time for him to visit a contender outside the top 10 to properly evaluate his place in the division.

A Good Win, But Slow the Talks of Polish Power’s Revival

Jan Blachowicz (#1 CC, #1 UFC) got back in the win column with a solid win over Aleksandar Rakic (#7 CC, #3 UFC). However, it was marred a bit by the fact that Rakic tore his ACL in the third round. The consensus was that each had won one round a piece until that point. Blachowicz clearly still belongs in the upper echelons, but did not display the type of KO power he came to be known for prior to his ascent to the title in 2020. With the light heavyweight strap on the line at UFC 275 on June 11, many are putting Blachowicz back at the front of the line to fight the winner. However, the winner of Magomed Ankalaev (#4 CC, #4 UFC) vs. Anthony Smith (#3 CC, #5 UFC) might have something to say about that.

Death, Taxes, and Katlyn Chookagian By Decision

Chookagian (#1 CC, #1 UFC) continues dispatching would-be contenders to Valentina Shevchenko’s throne. This was a much tighter decision than she’s accustomed to, and many onlookers thought Amanda Ribas (#9 CC/sw, #9 UFC/sw) won the bout. Regardless, Chookagian has won four in a row against the top of the flyweight division. With Shevchenko lapping the division, it may be time for the #1 contender to get another shot. It’s getting harder to argue.

Confusion at Women’s Bantamweight

Ketlen Vieira (#3 CC, #2 UFC) got the win over former champion Holly Holm (#5 CC, #3 UFC). However, most saw the fight go for Holm and the fight has sparked a sport-wide discussion on MMA judging. It was one of Verdict MMA’s most lopsidedly scored fights that went for the losing fighter (Holm won 48.4-46.6 on the global scorecard).

Regardless of the controversy, there’s not a natural next contender at bantamweight. Vieira now has a claim to fight the winner of Julianna Pena’s first title defense against Amanda Nunes (#1 CC, #1 UFC). Vieira sits at #2 in the official UFC rankings. However, former title contender Raquel Pennington (#2 CC, #5 UFC) has been surging lately with four straight wins. Also sitting in the top 5 is Irene Aldana (#6 CC, #4 UFC), who decisively knocked out Vieira in their 2019 and added another first round KO in her most recent bout at UFC 264. We’ll see what the matchmakers do shortly, but there’s no clear answer for sure.

Other Under-the-Radar Names to Watch From May Fights

• Andre Fialho (Men’s Welterweight)
• Tracy Cortez (Women’s Flyweight)
• Lupita Godinez (Women’s Strawweight)
• Tatsuro Taira (Men’s Flyweight)
• Viviane Araujo (Women’s Flyweight)
• Jailton Almeida (Men’s Light Heavyweight)
• Chase Hooper (Men’s Featherweight)

Photo Credit: SI.com