The UFC 274 prelim card features four bouts. It includes an important flyweight bout between Brandon Royval and Matt Schnell as well as a women’s featherweight tilt between contenders Norma Dumont (pictured above right) and Macy Chiasson (pictured above left). All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

The early prelim previews can be found HERE.

Brandon Royval vs. [15] Matt Schnell (Men’s Flyweight)

Brandon Royval

• Record: 13-6-0
• Division Ranking: 19/36 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -260 (Favorite)

Matt Schnell

• Record: 15-5-0
• Division Ranking: 16/36 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +210 (Underdog)

Royval (NR CC, #6 UFC) has had a wild ride in five UFC fights. He started by finishing Tim Elliott (NR CC, #11 UFC) and Kai Kara-France (#5 CC, #2 UFC) respectively. He then got finished himself at the hands of Brandon Moreno (#1 CC, #1 UFC) and Alexandre Pantoja (#2 CC, #4 UFC). His last bout got him back in the win column via a very close split decision. Royval is one of the most exciting flyweights around and can submit anyone from anywhere. But, he also has KO power in his hands to watch out for. He’s just had to deal with an insanely tough strength of schedule early on.

Schnell (#15 CC, #9 UFC), on the other hand started slowly. He lost his first two bouts, which included a move down from bantamweight to flyweight. Then, he turned it on winning five of his next six. His last bout saw him lose, but was overturned after his opponent tested positive for a banned substance. Schnell is also a prolific submission artist, finishing most of his wins that way.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Royval is either criminally overrated by the UFC or criminally underrated by Cage Calculus’ forecast algorithm. The answer is likely somewhere in the middle, but leaning towards the latter. This bout should help fix that to some extent.

Editor’s Pick: Royval

[1] Macy Chiasson vs. [2] Norma Dumont (Women’s Featherweight)

Macy Chiasson

• Record: 8-2-0
• Division Ranking: 2/5 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: +190 (Underdog)

Norma Dumont

• Record: 7-1-0
• Division Ranking: 3/5 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: -230 (Favorite)

Chiasson (#1 CC, #11/bw UFC) had a tough go of it in her last bout. She made the last minute call to go up to featherweight and still missed weight by 2.5 pounds. Chiasson has spent the majority of her career in the UFC, with seven of her nine pro bouts taking place inside the octagon. She looked poised to make a run up the ranks before her most recent stumble. She successfully made featherweight and will likely take this challenge before trying to get back down to bantamweight for a run at that belt.

Death, taxes, and Norma Dumont (#2 CC, #15/bw UFC) missing weight are among the certainties in life. Dumont has been trying to come down to bantamweight and has even secured a spot in the rankings in that division, despite never having made 135 pounds. She’ll come in a half pound over the featherweight limit for this bout. Her woes on the scale should not distract from the fact that Dumont is immensely talented and combines power and speed well in the octagon. She’s handled some very tough opponents in her short run. The UFC clearly thinks highly of her ceiling to rank her before she’s even made the cut down to bantamweight. A win likely makes her next in line for the UFC women’s featherweight title, should it become available again.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: The weight miss is concerning for Dumont. She looked depleted and it is becoming a repeat issue for her. However, if she can avoid getting clipped with a haymaker, she has the ability to outpoint Chiasson all day long. Stick with Dumont.

Editor’s Pick: Dumont

[13] Francisco Trinaldo vs. Danny Roberts (Men’s Welterweight)

Francisco Trinaldo

• Record: 27-8-0
• Division Ranking: 14/83 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -105 (Underdog)

Danny Roberts

• Record: 18-5-0
• Division Ranking: 46/83 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -115 (Favorite)

Trinaldo (#13 CC, NR UFC) has been around for what seems like forever. He made his UFC debut back in June of 2012. He began by putting together 11 wins in his first 14 bouts. A couple of poorly-timed losses likely squandered what chances he would have of gaining UFC gold. He has, however, won four of his last five, so he can’t be counted out, even at age 43. One point of concern is how steeply his finish rate has dropped off as of late.

“Hot Chocolate” Roberts is on a streak of his own, having won two in a row. The Englishman is 7-4 since joining the UFC. An interesting statistic is that Roberts has never lost a fight by decision. All of his defeats have come by either KO or submission. For his part, he’s delivered 13 finishes (eight KOs, five submissions) in his 18 career victories.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This is a tight fight on paper. Trinaldo likely won’t be able to get Roberts out of there inside the distance. That being the case, a longer fight benefits Roberts’ style and a desperate Trinaldo might open up a possibility of a finish.

Editor’s Pick: Roberts

Randy Brown vs. Khaos Williams (Men’s Welterweight)

Randy Brown

• Record: 14-4-0
• Division Ranking: 29/83 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -105 (Underdog)

Khaos Williams

• Record: 13-2-0
• Division Ranking: 32/83 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -115 (Favorite)

Brown typically excites with his fights and is now exciting UFC fans with his potential. It has taken some of the best to get Brown out of there, with losses coming to Vicente Luque (#2 CC, #6 UFC) and Belal Muhammad (#4 CC, #5 UFC). Otherwise, Brown has done well with the competition. He also usually gets it done inside the distance with just under 80 percent of his wins coming by finish.

Williams came into the UFC with authority, delivering two KO wins that saw him spend less than one minute combined in the octagon. He would then stumble against Michel Pereira by decision before winning his next two, notching another KO in his most recent bout. Williams has fight-ending power and has collected three performance bonuses in five fights from the UFC. At just 28, Williams has a lot of time to get better and start KO’ing higher caliber opponents.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: It took the incredibly agile Michel Pereira to avoid Williams’ KO hammer. Brown is not that mobile inside the cage. Look for Williams to once again bring the power and drag Brown to deep water.

Editor’s Pick: Williams

Photo Credit: SportsManor