The UFC 274 main card features five bouts. It features two title bouts, with the first being a strawweight rematch between champion Rose Namajunas and former champ Carla Esparza. The headliner is a lightweight chmpionship bout between Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje (because of a weight miss, Oliveira will be stripped of his title when the fight begins and only Gaethje will be eligible for the belt). All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

The prelim previews can be found HERE and HERE.

Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon (Men’s Lightweight)

Donald Cerrone

• Record: 36-16-0
• Division Ranking: 22/85 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -190 (Favorite)

Joe Lauzon

• Record: 28-16-0
• Division Ranking: 36/85 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +160 (Underdog)

“Cowboy” Cerrone is a legend of the game. There are no doubts about that. A win in this bout would move him into sole possession of first place on the UFC’s all-time wins list with 24. In his prime, Cerrone went on a stretch winning 12 of 13 with the one loss being his failed bid for the UFC’s lightweight championship. It seems as if his career may be coming to an end, having lost five of his last six, with the sixth being a No Contest against Niko Price. Cerrone has 27 career finishes (10 KOs, 17 submissions). A staggering 16 of those came inside the UFC, placing him at second all-time in that respect.

It has been almost three years since we’ve seen Lauzon in the octagon. It was a KO win over Jonathan Pearce. Lauzon made his UFC debut at UFC 63 in September 2006. He is 15-12 in his 27 fights in the promotion. He sits in a tie for third place all-time with 15 bonus awards during his time. He sits behind only Cerrone and the lightweight champion, Charles Oliveira. Lauzon still has more fights on his contract, but given his proclivity for long hiatuses, this might be his last.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Regardless of how you see this going down, this will be a showcase of two of the game’s absolute legends. Cerrone has the edge due to his recent activity. Ring rust after 31 months away might be a bit much for Lauzon.

Editor’s Pick: Cerrone

Mauricio Rua vs. Ovince Saint Preux (Men’s Light Heavyweight)

Mauricio Rua

• Record: 27-12-1
• Division Ranking: 17/39 light heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +210 (Underdog)

Ovince Saint Preux

• Record: 25-16-0
• Division Ranking: 25/39 light heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -260 (Favorite)

Speaking of legends of the game, Rua was the last man to hold the light heavyweight title before Jon Jones came and made the division his own. He has been in the UFC nearly 15 years now. Rua holds the all-time light heavyweight record for most knockdowns in a UFC career with 14 (tied with Chuck Liddell). Rua is getting older, but is 5-2-1 in his last eight, with both losses coming to men comfortably in the top 10 of the division. He may be overlooked because of his longevity.

OSP also contended for the light heavyweight title, but came up short against Jones in his lone title bid. He has bounced back and forth between light heavyweight and heavyweight recently, but now comes back to his original division. He too has struggled a bit to reclaim his former glory, but has also been matched up with a number of ranked contenders.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Comparatively, Rua has looked marginally better against better competition in recent bouts.

Editor’s Pick: Rua

[13] Michael Chandler vs. [4] Tony Ferguson (Men’s Lightweight)

Michael Chandler

• Record: 22-7-0
• Division Ranking: 14/85 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -360 (Favorite)

Tony Ferguson

• Record: 26-6-0
• Division Ranking: 5/85 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +280 (Underdog)

Chandler (#13 CC, #5 UFC) may be 1-2 in his UFC career, but he has delivered some all-time great performances while he’s been here. He began with a first round KO of Dan Hooker (NR CC, #13 UFC). He then lost his title bid to Oliveira, but certainly had him on the ropes for a bit in the first round. He then turned in perhaps the best UFC fight of all-time with Justin Gaethje (#2 CC, #1 UFC) his last time out, falling short. Prior to the UFC, Chandler was a dominant Bellator lightweight champion. Adding a UFC belt is no doubt on his mind before calling it a career. And what a career it would be. He has 17 finishes over 22 wins.

Ferguson (#4 CC, #7 UFC) had one of the best lightweight win streaks of all-time. He’d won 12 in a row prior to his interim title bout with Gaethje at UFC 249. He was upset in that bout. He followed up by falling to Oliveira by decision. Another loss has put his losing streak now at three. It may go down as one of the greatest injustices in UFC history that he never got to fight for undisputed gold. This bout could be one last bid to make a run at gold. He has 20 career submissions of his own.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: On paper, Chandler has the edge with Ferguson appearing to have dropped off as of late. But, if you look at who Ferguson’s fought, it’s hard to say he suffered an inexcusable loss. Chandler’s style differs from the grapplers who’ve given Ferguson trouble. Why not go with “El Cucuy” to get back in the win column?

Editor’s Pick: Ferguson

[C] Rose Namajunas vs. [5] Carla Esparza (Women’s Strawweight Championship)

Rose Namajunas

• Record: 12-4-0
• Division Ranking: 1/44 strawweights
• Vegas Odds: -220 (Favorite)

Carla Esparza

• Record: 19-6-0
• Division Ranking: 6/44 strawweights
• Vegas Odds: +180 (Underdog)

Namajunas is slowly cementing herself as the greatest strawweight ever. Given she’s only 29, she’ll have time to potentially become the greatest female UFC fighter ever. A win in this bout would give her victories over every other UFC strawweight champion in history and avenge her UFC debut loss, which saw her fight for the inaugural strawweight belt. Namajunas is one of the most precise strikers in the game, but also has an excellent submission game, finishing most of her fights that way. She’s dangerous everywhere.

Esparza (#5 CC, #2 UFC) would set a UFC record for most time between title reigns if she reclaims the belt that was hers seven and a half years ago. Esparza is on a five-fight winning streak and is looking to show she is far from done in this division. Her last win came by dominant TKO. She also showcased superior grappling, which is how she dispatched Namajunas the first time around.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: While Esparza has won their only bout, this is a far different Namajunas than the first time. Rose is better on the feet and on the ground. Expect Namajunas to outpoint Esparza all the way to a clean decision.

Editor’s Pick: Namajunas

[C] Charles Oliveira vs. [2] Justin Gaethje (Men’s Lightweight Championship)

Charles Oliveira

• Record: 32-8-0
• Division Ranking: 1/85 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -140 (Favorite)

Justin Gaethje

• Record: 23-3-0
• Division Ranking: 3/85 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +120 (Underdog)

Oliveira will not be fighting to defend his title. He missed weight by a half pound. Once the bout begins, he’ll cease to be champion and only Gaethje can win the belt after. He’ll be motivated by the desire to secure another shot with a win. Oliveira, at just 32, is already the UFC’s all-time leader in submissions and finishes overall. He also keeps it exciting, with the most bonuses ever as well. Now that he’s got some adversity behind hi, he could be extra dangerous. There is no one in UFC history that is as much a threat in the grappling as Oliveira.

Gaethje (#2 CC, #1 UFC) has a golden opportunity. He lost his prior shot at UFC gold to Khabib Nurmagomedov by submission. Other than that, he’s been borderline unstoppable. He also has power unlike any other lightweight in his hands. He already has 19 career KOs, over just 23 total career wins. It should be noted he was also an all-American wrestler. So, he is no slouch when it comes to the ground game.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Gaethje showed vulnerabilities on the ground against Nurmagomedov. Now, he faces the most dangerous submission artist ever. However, Oliveira has shown weak striking defense, having been dropped in each of his last two bouts, but recovering. Against someone like Gaethje, that’s a problem. Add to that the fact that he underwent a tough weight cut and is mentally shaken by losing his belt on the scale, this comes together well for Gaethje.

Editor’s Pick: Gaethje

Photo Credit: UFC