The UFC 274 early prelim card has six bouts across six different weight divisions. It features an important women’s flyweight bout between Tracy Cortez (pictured above left) and undefeated Melissa Gatto (pictured above right). All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

Journey Newson vs. Fernie Garcia (Men’s Bantamweight)

Journey Newson

• Record: 9-3-0
• Division Ranking: 68/80 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +115 (Underdog)

Fernie Garcia

• Record: 10-1-0
• Division Ranking: 51/80 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -135 (Favorite)

After going 9-1 with a couple of championships prior to joining the UFC, Newson has had a difficult run since making the step up. He’s 0-2 with an additional No Contest in three octagon appearances. The one No Contest was originally a sensational KO win for Newson, but was called back after Newson failed a post-fight drug test. Newson’s led a pretty balanced career, with three decisions, three submissions, and three KOs over nine career wins.

Garcia earned a spot in the UFC with a first round finish in his lone Contender Series appearance. Compiling a 10-1 record is no small feat. That one loss came over three years ago and Garcia has strung together five straight wins since. One point of concern for Garcia is his relative inability to finish fights, with the vast majority of his wins coming by decision.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This fight is essentially a toss-up. With that being the case, lean towards the fighter with more UFC experience.

Editor’s Pick: Newson

[12] Ariane Carnelossi vs. Lupita Godinez (Women’s Strawweight)

Ariane Carnelossi

• Record: 14-2-0
• Division Ranking: 14/44 strawweights
• Vegas Odds: +155 (Underdog)

Lupita Godinez

• Record: 7-2-0
• Division Ranking: 22/44 strawweights
• Vegas Odds: -180 (Favorite)

Carnelossi (#12 CC, NR UFC) lost her pro MMA debut to fellow future UFC strawweight contender Amanda Ribas (#9 CC, #9 UFC) and lost her UFC debut five years later to Angela Hill (NR CC, #13 UFC). Other than that, she has been perfect. She’s won each of her last two trips to the UFC octagon and done so by finishing both fights. Over 14 career wins, Carnelossi has 11 finishes (nine KOs, two submissions). That is staggering for a strawweight. She briefly made an appearance in the UFC’s official strawweight rankings before being shuffled out. Another win might ensure she stays there next time.

Godinez took each of her last two fights on ridiculously short notice. She lost her bid to become the first UFC fighter to win two fights within a one week span. But, she recovered nicely with a win over Loma Lookboonmee in her most recent bout. Godinez finally has a full fight camp behind her this time. She doesn’t have the finishing ability of her opponent, but does have a championship resume pre-dating her UFC career. She’d no doubt like to add to that at some point in the future.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: It is borderline criminal that Carnelossi is a betting underdog here. She is one of the most physically fit fighters on the roster and has handled her last two opponents with ease. She shows shades of a younger Jessica Andrade in the cage and has massive upside. Expect to see exactly why in the octagon very soon.

Editor’s Pick: Carnelossi

Kleydson Rodrigues vs. CJ Vergara (Men’s Flyweight)

Kleydson Rodrigues

• Record: 7-1-0
• Division Ranking: 27/36 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -360 (Favorite)

CJ Vergara

• Record: 9-3-1
• Division Ranking: 32/36 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +280 (Underdog)

Rodrigues comes into this bout with a lot of hype behind him. Given that it’s been almost seven years since he suffered a loss in pro MMA, that makes some sense. He won his Contender Series debut and quickly got a UFC contract from Dana White. Rodriguez has a finishing rate of just above 70 percent in his career.

Vergara lost a rather boring decision to Ode Osbourne at UFC 268 in November. That snapped a five-fight win streak. Vergara is also a Contender Series product and won his contract with a first-minute KO of his opponent in a bout in which he was an underdog. Also similar to Rodrigues is Vergara’s 67 percent finishing rate.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Vergara’s debut did not inspire much confidence. While it’s difficult to make a debut, Rodrigues should have enough talent and skill to overcome that in multiple facets.

Editor’s Pick: Rodrigues

Tracy Cortez vs. [15] Melissa Gatto (Women’s Flyweight)

Tracy Cortez

• Record: 9-1-0
• Division Ranking: 17/40 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -140 (Favorite)

Melissa Gatto

• Record: 8-0-2
• Division Ranking: 16/40 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +120 (Underdog)

Cortez will get to fight in her hometown of Phoenix for this bout. After losing her pro debut, Cortez is on a nine-fight win streak. Her most recent bout saw her miss weight and fight veteran Justine Kish to a split decision. She had no such issues on the scale this time and is looking to show she belongs in this talent-heavy flyweight division. Improving her UFC record to 4-0 would go a long way towards accomplishing that. Cortez only has two finishes in her career, with most all of her fights going the distance.

Gatto (#15 CC, NR UFC) is also undefeated in the UFC, having defeated Victoria Leonardo and Sijara Eubanks. Both wins came by way of finish and bolstered Gatto’s 75 percent career finishing rate. In her last bout before joining the UFC, Gatto knocked off current UFC bantamweight contender Karol Rosa (#9 CC, #13 UFC). Gatto has never been defeated, but does have two draws to her name.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This will be a fantastic matchup. Cortez will have to worry about a finish from Gatto more so than she has in her recent bouts. That will limit some of what she can do. While Gatto may not end up finishing Cortez, she has the skills to fight out a decision win.

Editor’s Pick: Gatto

Andre Fialho vs. Cameron VanCamp (Men’s Welterweight)

Andre Fialho

• Record: 15-4-0
• Division Ranking: 55/83 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -420 (Underdog)

Cameron VanCamp

• Record: 15-5-1
• Division Ranking: 41/83 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: +330 (Favorite)

Fialho is certainly staying active. This will be his third UFC bout in the four months since he joined the promotion. His stock has only risen since. He took a short notice bout against the wild Michel Pereira in his debut and ultimately forced Pereira to scrap out a close decision. He then got a legit camp to fight the uber-talented Miguel Baeza. Fialho scored a first round KO. Now, he turns around three weeks later, looking to get another win under his belt to continue improving his stock in the division.

VanCamp has racked up just about every regional belt you can win. He became welterweight champion in five separate promotions before finally getting the call from the UFC. VanCamp racked up nine submissions over that time, establishing himself as a high-level grappler. Now, he gets a chance to prove that success was no fluke.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: VanCamp can bank on Fialho maybe not having the best gas tank on short notice again. Although, as a grappler, VanCamp will cede a lot of ground in the standup game. Fialho’s shown if he connects, it’s game over. If he’s hunting for an early finish, he just may find it.

Editor’s Pick: Fialho

[12] Blagoy Ivanov vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (Men’s Heavyweight)

Blagoy Ivanov

• Record: 18-4-0
• Division Ranking: 13/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +125 (Underdog)

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

• Record: 19-8-1
• Division Ranking: 18/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -150 (Favorite)

Ivanov (#12 CC, #15 UFC) has certainly had a heck of a career already. He became a top Bellator contender before being sidelined after being near-fatally stabbed in a bar fight in his hometown of Sofia, Bulgaria. Ivanov would come back two years later after being briefly in a coma. He’d win his next four fights before losing the Bellator heavyweight tournament to future contender Alexander Volkov (#6 CC, #7 UFC). Since joining the UFC, Ivanov’s fought top contenders and former champions. He’s had some bad luck as each of his last two bouts were lost by split decision. Maybe he’ll look to tak it out of the judges’ hands by adding to his 67 percent career finishing rate.

De Lima defeated the since-cut Ben Rothwell in just 37 seconds his last time out. It was a good performance, albeit somewhat marred by referee Herb Dean’s questionable stoppage. De Lima has a very respectable 14 KOs in his career. He began his UFC career at light heavyweight, before moving up. This usually affords him a speed advantage over opponents. He’s 4-2 since moving up in weight.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This is another very close bout. Despite his longevity, Ivanov is actually the younger fighter. Ivanov has also faced a more robust strength of schedule than De Lima. The only question is the speed factor, but Ivanov has faced down better.

Editor’s Pick: Ivanov

Photo Credit: My MMA News