The UFC Vegas 53 prelim card features six bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. It will be capped by a heavyweight showdown between the returning Chase Sherman and the undefeated Moldovan contender Alexandr Romanov (pictured above). All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

Tatsuro Taira vs. Carlos Candelario (Men’s Flyweight)

Tatsuro Taira

• Record: 10-0-0
• Division Ranking: 13/37 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -240 (Favorite)

Carlos Candelario

• Record: 8-1-0
• Division Ranking: 30/37 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +200 (Underdog)

Taira comes to the UFC as the top-rated flyweight in Japan. In a relatively top-heavy division, he can make some waves by impressing early. Half of his ten career wins have come by submission. He has another three KOs to his name.

Candelario may not have the championship resume that Taira does, but he impressed enough in his two Contender Series appearances to earn a contract. Candelario has five finishes in eight career wins (three submissions, two KOs). He’s known as a fairly well-rounded fighter.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Taira’s talent is next level. Candelario can hang around, but if Taira gets the fight to the ground, he should have the upper hand.

Editor’s Pick: Taira

Gina Mazany vs. Shanna Young (Women’s Flyweight)

Gina Mazany

• Record: 7-5-0
• Division Ranking: 40/40 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -180 (Favorite)

Shanna Young

• Record: 7-4-0
• Division Ranking: 38/40 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +155 (Underdog)

Mazany has lost two of her three UFC appearances thus far, with the only win coming against the since cut Rachael Ostovich. She does have an impressive ability to finish fights for someone in her weight class, with all but two of her pro wins coming by finish (four KOs, one submission). She’ll look to climb out of the basement of the flyweight rankings after this one.

Young is still looking for her first UFC win and she’ll do it by coming down to flyweight from bantamweight. She was delivered two losses in her last two attempts by Macy Chiasson (#13 CC, #11 UFC) and Stephanie Egger (#15 CC, NR UFC). Those are both very respectable opponents and she no doubt gained valuable experience.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This is a battle of a striker (Young) versus a grappler (Mazany). Mazany has more experience, but Young’s is against better quality opponents. Also take into account Young may be the bigger fighter come fight time.

Editor’s Pick: Young

Natan Levy vs. Mike Breeden (Men’s Lightweight)

Natan Levy

• Record: 6-1-0
• Division Ranking: 78/83 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -195 (Favorite)

Mike Breeden

• Record: 10-4-0
• Division Ranking: 81/83 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +165 (Underdog)

Levy suffered his first career loss back in his UFC debut in November. Levy is very good in the ground game and is about as physically fit a fighter as you’ll ever see. He’ll look to combine his grappling and karate style into his first UFC win this time.

Breeden’s UFC debut lasted only 80 seconds when an overhand right from Alexander Hernandez shut the lights out. Granted, Breeden took the fight on very short notice. It was a taste of his own medicine, as Breeden is a prolific finisher himself with eight KOs in just ten career wins.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Levy definitely has the better skill set, but Breeden’s striking can end a fight at any time. Though, trust that Levy can avoid the KO blow and work his way to a decision.

Editor’s Pick: Levy

Yohan Lainesse vs. Gabe Green (Men’s Welterweight)

Yohan Lainesse

• Record: 8-0-0
• Division Ranking: 58/82 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: +115 (Underdog)

Gabe Green

• Record: 10-3-0
• Division Ranking: 68/82 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -135 (Favorite)

Lainesse comes in as an extremely talented fighter coming off a finish in his Contender Series appearance. He has six KO wins in just eight career wins. The Canadian “White Lion” can deliver stunning wins, but if the fight goes the distance, he tends to struggle with cardio.

It’s been 14 months since Green nabbed his first UFC win. Green has six submission wins, so is a threat in the ground game to the newcomer. He also has three KOs to his name, demonstrating he can finish from anywhere. It would be nice to follow up his first UFC win with his first UFC finish.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This is a very close fight on paper with two fighters who are talented in all facets. If Green can avoid being finished early, he should be able to get the fight to the ground and dominate there.

Editor’s Pick: Green

Daniel Da Silva vs. Francisco Figueiredo (Men’s Flyweight)

Daniel Da Silva

• Record: 11-2-0
• Division Ranking: 26/37 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -120 (Favorite)

Francisco Figueiredo

• Record: 12-4-1
• Division Ranking: 32/37 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +100 (Underdog)

Da Silva has a tendency to finish fights in the first round. He lost his last bout to Jeff Molina (#14 CC, NR UFC), who is on an eight-fight win streak. Otherwise, the power in Da Silva’s hands cause trouble for a lot of flyweights. He wants to demonstrate that to a UFC audience once and for all.

Figueiredo, brother of current champ Deiveson Figueiredo, got dealt his first UFC loss last time out against Malcolm Gordon (#10 CC, NR UFC). He is dangerous on the ground, with seven submissions to his name already.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Figueiredo can use his grappling to neutralize Da Silva’s striking to avoid the early finish.

Editor’s Pick: Figueiredo

[9] Alexandr Romanov vs. Chase Sherman (Men’s Heavyweight)

Alexandr Romanov

• Record: 15-0-0
• Division Ranking: 10/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -2000 (Favorite)

Chase Sherman

• Record: 15-9-0
• Division Ranking: 38/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +1000 (Underdog)

Romanov (#9 CC, NR UFC) was originally slated to take on Tanner Boser (#15 CC, NR UFC) before he dropped out. This fight was also supposed to take place last week but was delayed due to illness. Now, Romanov will put his impressive unbeaten record on the line. In 15 pro fights, he has 14 finishes, including nine submissions, a high number for a heavyweight. He’ll look to continue his assault on the rankings.

Sherman’s story is diametrically opposite. He was just cut from the roster before being brought back to fill in on short notice for this one after Boser dropped out. This would be an all-time upset if Sherman can pull this off against an undefeated mauler on short notice after being cut.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: There’s a reason it would be an all-time upset. Pick Romanov.

Editor’s Pick: Romanov

Photo Credit: UFC.com