The UFC Vegas 53 main card features six bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. It will be capped by a pivotal bantamweight showdown between contenders Rob Font (pictured above left) and Marlon “Chito” Vera (pictured above right). All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. You can find the previews for the prelim card HERE.

Krzysztof Jotko vs. Gerald Meerschaert (Men’s Middleweight)

Krzysztof Jotko

• Record: 23-5-0
• Division Ranking: 21/68 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -170 (Favorite)

Gerald Meerschaert

• Record: 34-14-0
• Division Ranking: 18/68 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: +145 (Underdog)

Jotko has won four of his last five fights, with the lone loss in that stretch coming to top middleweight contender Sean Strickland (#2 CC, #4 UFC). Jotko has not scored a finish in quite some time with all of those wins coming by decision. Jotko does typically get a lot of top control time in his wins.

Meerschaert is on a three-fight win streak, with all three coming by way of submission. He has the most submissions in middleweight history. Prior to this most recent stretch, he had lost five of his previous seven. Meerschaert is hoping to continue his consistency in the right direction and possibly break into the top 15.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Meerschaert hasn’t been a part of a decision since 2019. If he can’t get the submission, it could be a long night for him. Jotko has only ever been submitted once and that came in 2014.

Editor’s Pick: Jotko

Darren Elkins vs. Tristan Connelly (Men’s Featherweight)

Darren Elkins

• Record: 27-10-0
• Division Ranking: 24/74 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: -180 (Favorite)

Tristan Connelly

• Record: 14-7-0
• Division Ranking: 73/74 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: +155 (Underdog)

Elkins is one of the most seasoned veterans of the game. He’s been very streaky during his long career. After winning six in a row from 2015 to 2018, a loss to then-future champ Alex Volkanovski kicked off a four-fight losing streak. He’s now one two of his last three as he winds down his time in the UFC. This will be his 26th UFC fight.

Connelly shocked the world, fighting on short notice and up two weight classes against Brazilian sensation Michel Pereira in his UFC debut. Connelly edged out a decision win in a memorable upset. However, he’s struggled back home at featherweight. Despite having only two UFC bouts under his belt, he is a ripe 36 years of age.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: If Elkins can manage his cardio well, he should be able to wrestle Connelly to a decision win. He has the skills to do it. The only question is the gas tank.

Editor’s Pick: Elkins

Jared Gordon vs. [13] Grant Dawson (Men’s Lightweight)

Jared Gordon

• Record: 18-4-0
• Division Ranking: 25/83 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +160 (Underdog)

Grant Dawson

• Record: 17-1-1
• Division Ranking: 14/83 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -190 (Favorite)

Gordon is an impressive 3-0 since July 2020. His last loss came against the current champion Charles Oliveira. While he certainly has a way to go, there is no doubt Gordon would like a rematch one day. Gordon’s not a prolific finisher, but he is finding ways to outpoint his opponents en route to decision wins as of late.

A product of Dana White’s Contender Series, Dawson (#13 CC, NR UFC) has won each of his five UFC bouts. He’ll threaten the official UFC rankings with another here. At just 28, Dawson already has 11 submission victories to his name. He will no doubt want to get this to the ground early.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Dawson has unreal potential. This is the next step in his evolution and he should be able to take care of business in the grappling.

Editor’s Pick: Dawson

Andre Fili vs. Joanderson Brito (Men’s Featherweight)

Andre Fili

• Record: 21-8-0
• Division Ranking: 33/74 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: -220 (Favorite)

Joanderson Brito

• Record: 12-3-1
• Division Ranking: 45/74 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: +180 (Underdog)

Fili is almost a year removed from a No Contest against Daniel Pineda after an accidental eye poke. Fili, up to that point, was looking excellent and on his way to a win. Despite having been in the UFC for almost a decade, Fili is just 31, looking to get some momentum. He’s faced some of the best the division has to offer.

Brito dropped his UFC debut rather unceremoniously in January. Now, he gets a chance to prove himself against a tough veteran opponent for his second act. He’s evenly spread out finishes, with six submissions and four KOs.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Fili has the big advantage on the feet, whereas Brito has a slight advantage in the ground game. All in all, Fili is the more well-rounded, experienced fighter in this one.

Editor’s Pick: Fili

[14] Andrei Arlovski vs. Jake Collier (Men’s Heavyweight)

Andrei Arlovski

• Record: 33-20-0
• Division Ranking: 15/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -135 (Favorite)

Jake Collier

• Record: 13-6-0
• Division Ranking: 31/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +115 (Underdog)

Arlovski (#14 CC, NR UFC) just can’t be counted out. At the age of 43, Arlovski has won three straight and five of his last six, with the only loss coming to top contender Tom Aspinall (#7 CC, #6 UFC). He may never again compete for the belt that was once his, but he is hanging around, making life difficult for young heavyweights. He just may work his way back into the UFC rankings if he keeps winning.

Collier is an even 5-5 since joining the UFC, having alternated wins and losses every time. Collier began at middleweight and worked his way up to heavyweight after undergoing a nearly unrecognizable body transformation. Because of that, Collier will likely have the speed advantage in this one (also because of the ten-year age gap).

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This is where the magical run comes to an end. Collier earned a first round submission his last time out. Arlovski won’t threaten any significant damage and Collier can use his speed to outpoint the former champion.

Editor’s Pick: Collier

[5] Rob Font vs. [6] Marlon Vera (Men’s Bantamweight)

Rob Font

• Record: 19-5-0
• Division Ranking: 6/79 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -120 (Favorite)

Marlon Vera

• Record: 18-7-1
• Division Ranking: 7/79 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +100 (Underdog)

Font (#5 CC, #5 UFC) had his run to the title stalled with a loss his last time out to Jose Aldo (#2 CC, #3 UFC). Prior, Font was on a four-fight win streak and seemed destined for gold. He still may be, but he has to get back in the win column. He has knockout power in his hands and can end a fight in a number of ways. Potentially complicating things is his weight miss on the scales. We’ll see how that impacts him.

Vera (#6 CC, #8 UFC) also fell victim to Aldo recently, breaking a streak of dominance. Vera is credited with handing Sean O’Malley (#12 CC, #13 UFC) his only professional loss to date. He’s delivered some stunning finishes in his career and is dangerous on the feet. However, an unsung talent is that he actually has more career submissions than KOs. Vera will be one to watch out for at just 29, beginning his trek towards the top 5.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This is Vera’s first main event. If the fight goes beyond the third round, that could play a factor, as could the fact that Font did not complete a full weight cut. If Vera can’t finish Font, it could play out in the Puerto Rican’s favor. Font hasn’t been finished in almost five years.

Editor’s Pick: Font

Photo Credit: UFC.com