UFC Vegas 51 is in the books. When all was said and done, the night saw a seismic shift atop the welterweight rankings, with Belal Muhammad upsetting the red hot Vicente Luque. It also saw a number of top women’s bantamweights make statements for their place in the division.

Through the 14 fights on the UFC Vegas 51 card, the Cage Calculus forecast favorites went 8-6, bringing the forecast’s overall record since its inception to 192-114-2. All forecast projections are based on a fighter’s CC rating. You can find out how those ratings are generated HERE. You can view the projections for last week’s fights HERE, HERE, and HERE. The CC Editor’s Picks were 9-5 and the odds-on favorites according to Vegas were 9-5.

2022 Overall Standings

• Cage Calculus Forecast: 89-59
• Cage Calculus Editor Picks: 94-54
• Las Vegas Oddsmakers: 100-48

Without further ado, here’s what we learned from UFC Vegas 51:

Belal Muhammad is a Title Contender

Muhammad (#4 CC, #5 UFC) dominated on of the hottest fighters in the game. All of it went down while observing Ramadan fasts as well. No one has quite been able to figure out Muhammad’s wrestling. It’s become a bit of an internet meme that Muhammad’s fights are not that interesting, but at a certain point you have to tip your cap to the way he’s been able to neutralize some of the most dangerous weapons in the UFC today with his style. Muhammad has now won seven straight (and 11 of his last 12). Given that he’s about as game as they come, expect he’ll get another big name fight sooner rather than later. He might not promise the most exciting title bout, but he’s proven that it will take something special to handle his prowess on the ground.

We Were a Little Premature on Vicente Luque

Prior to Saturday, Cage Calculus had Luque (#2 CC, #6 UFC) rated as the #1 contender in the welterweight division. While his streak of finishes was as impressive as any in the UFC, he showed he clearly has some work to do before he can challenge the likes of Kamaru Usman. He still sits at #2 and will more than likely get a highly rated opponent his next time out. With something to prove, Luque could be even more dangerous than before. Don’t count him out, but know he may not be as underrated as we say. The playbook to beat him has now been written.

Andre Fialho Deserves Some Respect

Fialho took his UFC debut on very short notice and hung in there against a dangerous Michel Pereira. With a full camp, he came in and KO’d an equally dangerous Miguel Baeza in the very first round. He’s relatively new to the UFC, but his is now a name that fans of the sport should be watching, because he will certainly grow from this point. A frightening prospect for his fellow welterweights. You heard it here first. Watch this man in the coming months.

Mayra Bueno Silva Has a Home at Bantamweight

After struggling mightily at flyweight, Silva (#11 CC, NR UFC) appears to have a home in the bantamweight division. She turned in a fight of the night performance and secured a unanimous decision win. She has loads of potential, and the CC algorithm values her far more highly than the UFC does right now. She ought to get a higher level opponent her next time out to see truly where she stacks up at 135. We think it may be better than many think.

Don’t Overlook Pannie Kianzad

Kianzad (#10 CC, #10 UFC) got loads of redemption the last couple of weeks. She’s coming off a loss, her first since November 2019. However, that loss came against Raquel Pennington (#2 CC, #4 UFC), who’s been on a tear lately and secured a top 5 win last week at UFC 273. Now, Kianzad gets back in the win column to earn her fifth win in her last six bouts. Don’t let her recent loss fool you. It was a close bout against a bona fide title contender. Everyone else has fallen at the hands of the Iranian-Swede. Take her lightly at your own risk.

Photo Credit: ESPN