The UFC Vegas 51 prelim card features eight bouts, the first four of which will be previewed in this post. It features four fights across four different weight classes. All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

Alateng Heili vs. Kevin Croom (Men’s Bantamweight)

Alateng Heili

• Record: 14-8-2
• Division Ranking: 71/79 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -175 (Favorite)

Kevin Croom

• Record: 21-14-0
• Division Ranking: 77/79 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +150 (Underdog)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This fight features two men who have struggled mightily as of late. While Croom will be the bigger fighter, having just come down from bantamweight, Heili is likely to have a significant advantage in the grappling game. In a bout between two men badly needing a win, Heili has the skills advantage if he can get in close and mitigate Croom’s size.

Editor’s Pick: Heili

Istela Nunes vs. Sam Hughes (Women’s Strawweight)

Istela Nunes

• Record: 7-2-0
• Division Ranking: 34/44 strawweights
• Vegas Odds: -220 (Favorite)

Sam Hughes

• Record: 5-4-0
• Division Ranking: 43/44 strawweights
• Vegas Odds: +180 (Underdog)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Hughes will get a fourth opportunity to pick up her first UFC win in this bout. She was outclassed in every sense her last time out by Luana Pinheiro (NR CC, #15 UFC). Nunes is facing a similar situation. She’s winless in the UFC (in just one attempt). She was dominated by Ariane Carnelossi (#12 CC, NR UFC) in her last appearance. Hughes will be the better wrestler, but Nunes is longer and has the striking advantage. And having just wrestled with someone of Carnelossi’s caliber will pay dividends.

Editor’s Pick: Nunes

Jordan Leavitt vs. Trey Ogden (Men’s Lightweight)

Jordan Leavitt

• Record: 9-1-0
• Division Ranking: 47/83 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +120 (Underdog)

Trey Ogden

• Record: 15-4-0
• Division Ranking: 50/83 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -140 (Favorite)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This bout features two primary grapplers. In those cases, the fight typically remains on the feet, where Ogden will have the advantage. But, should someone try to take it down, Ogden has 11 career submissions. It will be a close fight, but the styles seems tailored for an Ogden victory in his debut.

Editor’s Pick: Ogden

Chris Barnett vs. Martin Buday (Men’s Heavyweight)

Chris Barnett

• Record: 22-7-0
• Division Ranking: 25/37 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +190 (Underdog)

Martin Buday

• Record: 9-1-0
• Division Ranking: 27/37 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -230 (Favorite)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: On paper, Buday has the advantage. However, Barnett (pictured above) is coming off of one of 2022’s best knockouts at UFC 268. Barnett has momentum, winning four of his last five. And, he is one of the looser fighters in the game. He should be able to outpoint the newcomer, who may suffer from octagon jitters. Pick the veteran for the upset.

Editor’s Pick: Barnett

Photo Credit: FTW USA Today