The UFC London main card features six bouts, the first three of which will be previewed in this post. All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

You can find the previews for the prelims HERE and HERE.

Jai Herbert vs. [14/FW] Ilia Topuria (Men’s Lightweight)

Jai Herbert

• Record: 11-3-0
• Division Ranking: 63/84 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +425 (Underdog)

Ilia Topuria

• Record: 11-0-0
• Division Ranking: 15/74 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: -575 (Favorite)

Herbert finally got the monkey off his back with a nice first round KO of Khama Worthy. That marked his first UFC in his third try, having been finished himself in the first two. Herbert is another Cage Warriors veteran and former lightweight champion in that promotion. The English fighter will no doubt be hoping the hometown crowd can lift him to another win. All but one of his eleven career wins have been finishes. He holds nine KOs and one submission.

Topuria (#14 CC/fw, #15 UFC/fw) is stepping up in weight to fill in on one month’s notice after Mike Davis dropped out of his scheduled bout with Herbert. Topuria is as dangerous as they come, rebuffing Ryan Hall in the ground game before knocking him out cold. Topuria is a multi-dimensional threat. He holds seven submissions and three KOs. The 25 year-old has higher ambitions, but is ready to put his undefeated record in jeopardy to fill in on this card.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: The only question is whether Topuria will experience complications going up in weight on short notice. Honestly, he very well might. And it likely won’t be enough to close the talent gap between him and Herbert. He’s that good.

Editor’s Pick: Topuria

[14] Molly McCann vs. Luana Carolina (Women’s Flyweight)

Molly McCann

• Record: 11-4-0
• Division Ranking: 15/42 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -130 (Favorite)

Luana Carolina

• Record: 8-2-0
• Division Ranking: 26/42 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +110 (Underdog)

McCann (#14 CC, NR UFC) is also a former Cage Warriors champion in the flyweight division. She broke her two-fight losing streak in September with a unanimous decision win over Ji Yeon Kim. She carries a 4-3 record since joining the UFC. However, two of those three losses came against flyweight submission queen Gillian Robertson and future title contender Taila Santos (#2 CC, #5 UFC). It has been over four years since McCann (pictured above) registered a KO. She already has four to her name. Getting a fifth in front of her home fans would be a nice way to begin an ascent up the rankings.

It’s tough to know what to make of Carolina lately. She was the victim of a brutal kneebar submission against Ariane Lipski back in July 2020. She then recovered with two straight wins. However, one was a split decision over Poliana Botelho in a bout where Carolina badly missed weight. The other was a victory over Lupita Godinez, who took the fight on one week’s notice and came up a weight class to do so. Fighting someone her own size with a full camp ought to give us more info on how Carolina fits into the flyweight picture.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This fight will be close. Carolina has a significant reach advantage, but McCann had a worse discrepancy against Kim and still emerged victorious. McCann may also have the advantage on the ground if she can land an early takedown.

Editor’s Pick: McCann

Gunnar Nelson vs. Takashi Sato (Men’s Welterweight)

Gunnar Nelson

• Record: 17-5-1
• Division Ranking: 22/78 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -500 (Favorite)

Takashi Sato

• Record: 16-4-0
• Division Ranking: 51/78 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: +380 (Underdog)

It has been well over two years since Nelson stepped into the octagon.So, perhaps he’s forgotten that he’s on a two-fight losing streak. However, those two came against former title challenger Gilbert Burns (#3 CC, #2 UFC) and future title challenger Leon Edwards (#4 CC, #3 UFC). Prior to that, Nelson compiled an impressive 8-3 UFC record, facing a number of top contenders along the way. Nelson is particularly dangerous on the ground, having 12 submission wins in his career.

Sato takes this bout on two week’s notice, replacing an injured Claudio Silva. Sato’s last bout came a little less than a year-and-a-half ago, losing via submission to Miguel Baeza. In the bout before that, he displayed his trademark power, notching his 11th KO win in just under a minute against Jason Witt. Sato is an even 2-2 since joining the UFC.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This is a nightmare in every sense for Sato. He’s already taking the fight on short notice. Three of Sato’s four career losses have come by submission. Nelson is a prolific submission artist. There’s almost no other way this plays out beyond Nelson submitting Sato after wearing him out.

Editor’s Pick: Nelson

Photo Credit: The Mirror