The UFC Vegas 50 prelim card features eight bouts, the final four of which will be previewed in this post. All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. You can view the previews for the rest of the prelims HERE.

Damon Jackson vs. Kamuela Kirk (Men’s Featherweight)

Damon Jackson

• Record: 19-4-1
• Division Ranking: 26/74 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: -115 (Favorite)

Kamuela Kirk

• Record: 11-4-0
• Division Ranking: 62/74 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: +105 (Underdog)

Jackson is 2-1 since he returned to the UFC after a four-year stint with LFA. Jackson became the interim featherweight champion there. He won his return with a performance of the night submission over Mirsad Bektic. That submission was the 14th of his career. He is still one of the more dangerous submission artists in the promotion today. At 33, he is still a viable threat, especially if he’s worked out the kinks from his time away.

Kirk is dangerous in the submission game as well. He has six submission to his name in just 11 career wins. His UFC debut saw him take a unanimous decision victory over Makwan Amirkhani, himself a respected grappler in the sport. Kirk has a balanced game, having four KOs in addition to those six submissions, good for an overall 91 percent finishing rate.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: With two high-level grapplers, this fight may very well take place in the standup game. In that case, Kirk has displayed the better knockout power throughout his career. That may give him the edge in this close fight

Editor’s Pick: Kirk

Trevin Jones vs. Javid Basharat (Men’s Bantamweight)

Trevin Jones

• Record: 13-7-0
• Division Ranking: 69/79 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +135 (Underdog)

Javid Basharat

• Record: 11-0-0
• Division Ranking: 37/79 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -160 (Favorite)

Jones debuted with an impressive KO win over the dangerous Timur Valiev. Unfortunately, the win was overturned after a positive drug test. There would be no such overturn of his second fight, a KO win over Mario Bautista. Things would turn around when Jones was submitted by Saidyokub Kakhramonov in August. Jones typically balances his wins, with three KOs, four submissions, and six decisions.

Basharat is also a balanced fighter, but decisions are not a part of that balance. In eleven fights, he has eleven wins and eleven finishes (five KOs, six submissions). He comes in as a highly-touted Contender Series prospect and was a bantamweight champion back in the UK. Basharat will look to defend his perfect record and perfect finish rate in his UFC debut.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Both fighters have the talent to take this fight anywhere. Jones has, however, proven vulnerable in the submission game in the past. That should give the newcomer his strategy for the night.

Editor’s Pick: Basharat

JJ Aldrich vs. [12] Gillian Robertson (Women’s Flyweight)

JJ Aldrich

• Record: 10-4-0
• Division Ranking: 18/41 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +105 (Underdog)

Gillian Robertson

• Record: 10-6-0
• Division Ranking: 13/41 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -125 (Favorite)

Aldrich will make her 10th walk to the octagon for this bout. She’s compiled a 6-3 record to this point. Only one of those bouts finished inside the distance and it was her loss to Maycee Barber (#13 CC, #14 UFC). Aldrich typically excels in the standup game and usually has a reach advantage over opponents. This will again be the case, with a nearly four inch advantage over Robertson (pictured above).

Robertson (#12 CC, NR UFC) takes this fight on three weeks notice, filling in for Ariane Lipski. Robertson is currently in a tie with the champion Valentina Shevchenko for most finish wins in UFC flyweight history (six total: five submissions and one KO). When Robertson is not facing ranked competition, she excels. She has promised she’s improved her game and is ready to set up a title run in 2023. When she gets fights to the ground, it’s hard to argue that she’s not one of the best at 125 pounds.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This is a battle of styles. Barring any struggles relating to the short notice, Robertson should be able to dominate this fight on the ground and mitigate Aldrich’s striking advantage.

Editor’s Pick: Robertson

Matthew Semelsberger vs. AJ Fletcher (Men’s Welterweight)

Matthew Semelsberger

• Record: 9-3-0
• Division Ranking: 56/78 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -210 (Favorite)

AJ Fletcher

• Record: 9-0-0
• Division Ranking: 59/78 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: +175 (Underdog)

Semelsberger is an impressive 3-1 since joining the UFC. His most recent victory was a stunning KO just 15 seconds into his bout with Martin Sano at UFC 266. Semelsberger is very good at making opponents pay for mistakes in the standup game. The Rockville, MD product is on his way up in the welterweight division.

Fletcher is an exciting talent from the Contender Series. He produced a highlight reel KO and immediately earned a UFC contract. And now, he’ll make his UFC debut on roughly a week’s notice. In his nine career wins, Fletcher has eight finishes (four KOs and four submissions). He is one of the more promising up-and-comers the UFC has at its disposal right now.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This is a matchup nightmare in so many respects for Fletcher. He is already young and inexperienced and Semelsberger can easily capitalize. Add to that the fact that he’s had no fight camp and will have an eight inch reach disadvantage. A tough way to make your debut.

Editor’s Pick: Semelsberger

Photo Credit: Action Network