The UFC 272 main card features five bouts, all five of which will be previewed in this post. It is capped a key bad blood rivalry matchup between former friends and teammates Colby Covington (pictured above left) and Jorge Masvidal (pictured above right). Both are two-time welterweight title contenders looking to work their way towards an elusive third shot. All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

You can find the previews for the prelim bouts HERE and HERE.

Sergey Spivak vs. Greg Hardy (Men’s Heavyweight)

Sergey Spivak

• Record: 13-3-0
• Division Ranking: 21/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -190 (Favorite)

Greg Hardy

• Record: 7-4-0
• Division Ranking: 30/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +160 (Underdog)

The Moldovan Spivak was on a nice three-fight win streak before it was cut short in September at the hands of Tom Aspinall (#12 CC, #11 UFC). Spivak can take some comfort in knowing he took that fight on short notice. Now, with a full camp, he looks he to continue his assault on the upper echelons of the UFC heavyweight division. He holds impressive victories over the likes of Tai Tuivasa (#6 CC, #3 UFC) and Aleksey Oleinik.

Hardy, a former NFL linebacker boasts impressive KO power. Unfortunately for him, he’s been on the receiving end of some knockouts in his most recent octagon appearances against the aforementioned Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura (#7 CC, #9 UFC). Prior to those two, he’d won four of his last five (five of his last six if you count the No Contest where Hardy won, but was ruled to have an illegal inhaler). If Hardy connects cleanly, it’s lights out. We’ll see if he can put together some success again.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Spivak and Hardy have both faced top tier competition in their careers. Spivak has had more success in such fights and has more overall experience.

Editor’s Pick: Spivak

[15/MW] Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira (Men’s Welterweight)

Kevin Holland

• Record: 21-7-0
• Division Ranking: 16/68 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -360 (Favorite)

Alex Oliveira

• Record: 22-11-1
• Division Ranking: 53/76 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: +280 (Underdog)

Perhaps we’ll finally get to see the new and improved Holland (#15/MW CC, #14/MW CC) in this bout. After being embarrassingly outwrestled in two consecutive bouts, Holland vowed to step up his ground game. It was short-lived as an accidental clash of heads ended his last bout early in a No Contest. Holland wants to reclaim the magic of his 2020 campaign, which saw him win five fights in seven months. He’ll now do it in a different weight class, moving down to welterweight.

Going into the end of 2018, Oliveira was thriving, going 8-3 in the UFC and racking up the finishes along the way. Sadly, the tables have turned and he is now loser in six of his last eight. At 34, it’s tough to say he’s past his prime. However, he is in dangerous territory. Losers of four straight typically don’t get to stick around that long. Oliveira has 17 career finish wins and is promising another in this bout to turn his career around.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: No one knows how Holland will adjust to the new weight class. Will the lower weight take away the good power in his hands or will he overpower the lighter competition? Oliveira typically lands a couple of takedowns per fight. That could be enough to steal a couple rounds from someone who’s shown little grappling ability.

Editor’s Pick: Oliveira

[10] Edson Barboza vs. [9] Bryce Mitchell (Men’s Featherweight)

Edson Barboza

• Record: 22-10-0
• Division Ranking: 11/74 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: +140 (Underdog)

Bryce Mitchell

• Record: 14-0-0
• Division Ranking: 10/74 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: -165 (Favorite)

Barboza (#10 CC, #10 UFC) has performed admirably since his move down to featherweight. He debuted with a narrow split decision loss to Dan Ige (NR CC, #9 UFC). He followed that up with a convincing win over Makwan Amirkhani and a highlight knockout over Shane Burgos (NR CC, #14 UFC). Barboza is reaching the tail end of a storied career that has spanned 26 fights in the UFC, amassing a 16-10 record over that time. He has 13 KOs in his career and some of them have been among the most spectacular in UFC history.

“Thug Nasty” (#9 CC, #11 UFC) comes in defending an undefeated record in his biggest test yet. He’s 5-0 since joining the UFC and boasts 2019’s “Submission of the Year” for his twister submission over Matt Sayles. That was the ninth submission in his 14 fight career. He has one of the more impressive ground games and now he gets to show it off against an accomplished striker in a battle of styles.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Mitchell is younger and the more dominant fighter. Barboza’ edge is experience, but his overall record (even recently) leaves some to be decided. Look for Mitchell to get it to the ground and stay undefeated.

Editor’s Pick: Mitchell

[8] Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano (Men’s 160lb Catchweight)

Rafael Dos Anjos

• Record: 30-13-0
• Division Ranking: 9/84 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -175 (Favorite)

Renato Moicano

• Record: 16-4-1
• Division Ranking: 23/84 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +150 (Underdog)

The former lightweight champion Dos Anjos (#8 CC, #6 UFC) won his return to lightweight in November 2020 against Paul Felder and is looking to begin one last run to the top of the division he used to rule before calling it a career. He’s been a bit snakebitten of late, with a number of fights being cancelled due to injury. Originally slated for Rafael Fiziev (NR CC, #11 UFC), Fiziev pulled out due first to a visa issue then COVID-19. This will be his 31st trip to the octagon, having made his debut in November 2008 at UFC 91.

Moicano takes this fight on just five days’ notice. After being finished by the aforementioned Fiziev in December 2020, Moicano has delivered two straight submission wins. He’s 3-1 since moving up from featherweight to lightweight, with all three wins coming via rear-naked choke. He has nine total in his career. Dos Anjos, for his part, has only been submitted once and it came in 2010 due to a jaw injury. Moicano is newly invigorated, ready to take a monumental next step in his career with a defining win tonight.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Under ordinary circumstances, Moicano might be able to close the gap. However, taking a five-round co-main event on five days’ notice is a tall task for anyone.

Editor’s Pick: Dos Anjos

[5] Colby Covington vs. [4] Jorge Masvidal (Men’s Welterweight)

Colby Covington

• Record: 16-3-0
• Division Ranking: 6/76 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -330 (Favorite)

Jorge Masvidal

• Record: 35-15-0
• Division Ranking: 5/76 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: +260 (Underdog)

With the exception of Warlley Alves back in 2015, the only man who’s been able to defeat Covington (#5 CC, #1 UFC) in the octagon has been the welterweight champ, Kamaru Usman. It also must be said that Usman’s two closest fights during his title reign have been both of his bouts with Covington. Covington is a standout wrestler, who puts incredible pressure on when he gets opponents to the ground. Though he’s known more for his antics outside the cage, he remains one of the most talented fighters in the sport, regardless of weight class.

Masvidal (#4 CC, #6 UFC) is looking to settle his beef with Covington once and for all. The two were former teammates at American Top Team before a rift divided the gym and sent Covington packing. Masvidal will likely have the advantage in the standup game, with each of his last five wins coming by knockout, with a total of 16 for his career. The last time Masvidal faced a wrestler with whom he had a massive grudge, it was Ben Askren. And everyone remembers how that one played out. Look for Masvidal to throw strikes with extreme prejudice, trying to end the fight early.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Nothing Masvidal has shown as of late indicates he can dispatch a fighter of Covington’s quality. Covington ain’t Ben Askren. It will likely be a closer, more entertaining fight than some are giving credit for, but expect Covington to control the pace throughout en route to a win.

Editor’s Pick: Covington

Photo Credit: UFC