The UFC Vegas 49 prelim card features six bouts, the first three of which will be previewed in this post. All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

Victor Altamirano vs. Carlos Hernandez (Men’s Flyweight)

Victor Altamirano

• Record: 10-1-0
• Division Ranking: 18/35 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +120 (Underdog)

Carlos Hernandez

• Record: 7-1-0
• Division Ranking: 24/35 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -140 (Favorite)

Altamirano earned his UFC contract via a narrow split decision victory on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) back in August of last year. Prior, he spent much of his time in the LFA promotion, accumulating a 9-1 professional record prior to his DWCS appearance. Altamirano had a good amount of success in the ground game, delivering four wins by submission. Interestingly, each submission came by a different method (heel hook, armbar, rear-naked choke, d’arce choke successively).

Like his opponent, Hernandez earned his UFC contract with a split decision win on DWCS. Hernandez also has four submission wins to his name, all by rear-naked choke. Hernandez was the flyweight champion for Hoosier FC, an Indiana-based promotion. He hasn’t lost since his pro debut in January of 2017.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Both fighters have very similar backgrounds. There’s a reason the betting odds are as close as they are. Altamirano has been the more active fighter in his career, fighting more over a shorter period of time. He’s also spent more time in a higher-level promotion like LFA, whereas Hernandez fought largely in a regional promotion.

Editor’s Pick: Altamirano

Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Micheal Gillmore (Men’s Welterweight)

Ramiz Brahimaj

• Record: 9-4-0
• Division Ranking: 67/76 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -360 (Favorite)

Micheal Gillmore

• Record: 6-4-0
• Division Ranking: 74/76 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: +280 (Underdog)

Brahimaj (pictured above) made his UFC debut in gruesome fashion back in November 2020. He was stopped via TKO because his ear quite literally almost fell off in the third round after a Max Griffin elbow. He would recover his next time out and get a win with a first round rear-naked choke over Sasha Palatnikov. He fell last month to Court McGee in his most recent bout. Brahimaj is a dangerous grappler, with all nine of his wins coming by submission.

Gillmore suffered a defeat in season 29 of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF). Nevertheless, he secured a fight in the UFC just three months later. That appearance went about as well as his time on TUF. Both ended in stoppage losses. Six months later, Gillmore will look to finally get in the win column. Gillmore would prefer to have the fight take place on the feet, having no submission wins to his name. He does have a 50 percent KO rate.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Once Brahimaj gets this fight to the ground, it is likely over. He is a superior grappler, and fighter, in most ways. There’s very little reason to believe Gillmore can pull off this upset.

Editor’s Pick: Brahimaj

Alejandro Perez vs. Jonathan Martinez (Men’s Featherweight)

Alejandro Perez

• Record: 23-8-1
• Division Ranking: 38/40 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +210 (Underdog)

Jonathan Martinez

• Record: 14-4-0
• Division Ranking: 40/78 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -260 (Favorite)

It appears as though Perez was experiencing a tough weight cut prior to this fight. A couple of days prior, his camp requested a switch from bantamweight to featherweight, which Martinez obliged. In summer of 2019, Perez was pretty well starched by bantamweight contender Song Yadong (#13 CC, #14 UFC). Perez must have worked out those kinks, because after a two-year hiatus, he came back and delivered a performance of the night submission over Johnny Eduardo. He’ll look to keep that momentum going.

Martinez has won three of his last four, dating back to August of 2020. Martinez was likely welcoming to the news of a new weight class, as one of those bouts was held at featherweight and another saw him miss weight by a whopping 4.5 pounds. Martinez has definite power in his hands, with seven KOs to his name as a relatively smaller man. With an additional two submissions, he’s a threat everywhere.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Martinez is the more well-rounded fighter. And, for once, it appears he will be the fighter who struggled less on the scale. Most signs point to a Martinez victory, but the fight may yet be closer than the oddsmakers indicate, as the CC forecast is obviously impressed with Perez’s comaprative strength of schedule.

Editor’s Pick: Martinez

Photo Credit: MMA India