The UFC Vegas 49 main card features five bouts. It will feature an excellent lightweight matchup between Arman Tsarukyan (NR CC, #13 UFC) and Joel Alvarez (#10 CC, NR UFC). The card is capped by a lightweight bout (taking place at a catchweight of 160 pounds) between Islam Makhachev (pictured above left) and Bobby Green (pictured above right). All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

You can find the previews for the prelim fights HERE and HERE.

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Armen Petrosyan (Men’s Middleweight)

Gregory Rodrigues

• Record: 11-3-0
• Division Ranking: 42/68 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -165 (Favorite)

Armen Petrosyan

• Record: 6-1-0
• Division Ranking: 49/68 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: +140 (Underdog)

Rodrigues failed to earn a UFC contract after losing his lone appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS). He circled back to the LFA promotion and, in just two fights, captured their middleweight title and got the call from the UFC. He didn’t disappoint, winning each of his first two, including a beautiful standing TKO over Jun Yong Park in October. Rodrigues is a balanced fighter, with five knockouts and four submissions. He’s working on his grappling as well, to improve his versatile skill set.

The Armenian Petrosyan makes his UFC debut after an impressive first round KO on DWCS in October. Despite having less UFC experience, Petrosyan comes in as the older fighter by roughly a year-and-a-half. His KO on DWCS is nothing new, as all six of his career wins have come via knockout. It was this dominance that saw him win the AMC Fight Nights Global light heavyweight championship. He’ll move down to middleweight for his UFC career.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Petrosyan may be the bigger fighter, by virtue of having previously fought at light heavyweight. It also begs whether or not the weight cut was an issue. Rodrigues will also have the upper hand in the ground game should the fight go there. With a undefeated UFC career so far, Rodrigues should get the benefit of the doubt in a close fight.

Editor’s Pick: Rodrigues

Arman Tsarukyan vs. [10] Joel Alvarez (Men’s Lightweight)

Arman Tsarukyan

• Record: 17-2-0
• Division Ranking: 17/84 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -220 (Favorite)

Joel Alvarez

• Record: 19-2-0
• Division Ranking: 11/84 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +180 (Underdog)

Tsarukyan is 4-1 in his UFC career. His lone loss came in his debut, to tonight’s headliner Makhachev. Prior to that, his only other pro loss came in December of 2015. Tsarukyan has made some legitimately scary men look pedestrian and is climbing up the UFC ranks. In his last bout, he delivered his first KO in the UFC, showing he may only be getting better, a frightening proposition for the rest of the division.

Alvarez, like his opponent, lost his UFC debut and never looked back. Since, he’s delivered four straight finishes. Over 19 career wins, Alvarez has a perfect 100 percent finishing rate, with three knockouts and a whopping 16 submissions. In his last bout, he dispatched the dangerous Thiago Moises in three minutes with a vicious series of strikes. His biggest opponent as of late has been the scale, having missed weight twice. He did, however, make weight for this bout.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This will be a very important bout for the lightweight top 15 and an early contender for fight of the night. Alvarez has a finishing instinct that Tsarukyan does not have and a ground game few can match.

Editor’s Pick: Alvarez

Priscila Cachoeira vs. Ji Yeon Kim (Women’s Flyweight)

Priscila Cachoeira

• Record: 10-4-0
• Division Ranking: 37/41 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +140 (Underdog)

Ji Yeon Kim

• Record: 9-4-2
• Division Ranking: 35/41 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -165 (Favorite)

Cachoeira fell via first round submission to Gillian Robertson (#11 CC, NR UFC) her last time out. It wasn’t a banner day for Cachoeira as she also missed weight and drew the ire of Joe Rogan for what appeared to be an attempted eye gouge as she was being choked out. Cachoeira is a disappointing 2-4 in her UFC career, though the two wins were the two fights immediately preceding the Robertson bout and both were KOs. Maybe she’s on the upswing and was stopped by a superior grappler and flyweight contender in Robertson.

Kim similarly has struggled lately, but against top tier talent. She’s fallen in each of her last two fights to Alexa Grasso (#10 CC, #11 UFC) and Molly McCann (#13 CC, NR UFC) respectively. Prior to that, she had won three of her first five fights in the UFC. Kim will take a step back in talent to hopefully get back on track. She has three career submissions to her name.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Kim, on paper is the better fighter of the two. She has never been finished and has a strong ground game. Add to that the fact that half of Cachoeira’s losses have come by submission, the South Korean’s path to victory is clear.

Editor’s Pick: Kim

Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman (Men’s Middleweight)

Misha Cirkunov

• Record: 15-7-0
• Division Ranking: 32/68 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -130 (Favorite)

Wellington Turman

• Record: 17-5-0
• Division Ranking: 56/68 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: +110 (Underdog)

Cirkunov has fought the upper echelons of the light heavyweight division, facing off against almost a half dozen ranked contenders in the recent past. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to find much success moving up the rankings or being able to string together some wins. In his last bout, he moved down to middleweight and lost a tight split decision to Krysztof Jotko. He’d love to add to his 13 career stoppage wins and make a statement at middleweight.

Turman comes in on roughly a month’s notice to replace Makhmud Muradov for this bout. Turman scraped out a decision win in his last bout, despite being deducted two points for repeated eye pokes against the embattles Sam Alvey. Turman has lost three of his first five UFC fights, with the only other win coming against Markus Perez, who’s since been cut from the promotion. Never to be underestimated though, Turman does have 11 stoppages himself.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Given Turman is coming on relatively short notice, Cirkunov already has the edge. Cirkunov has also faced much higher level competition and fared better. He should take this one.

Editor’s Pick: Cirkunov

[5] Islam Makhachev vs. [15] Bobby Green (Men’s 160lb Catchweight)

Islam Makhachev

• Record: 21-1-0
• Division Ranking: 6/84 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -900 (Favorite)

Bobby Green

• Record: 29-12-1
• Division Ranking: 16/84 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +600 (Underdog)

Makhachev (#5 CC, #4 UFC) has been making the case that he is the best lightweight in the world for some time now. He is on a nine fight winning streak and should secure his matchup against the winner of the lightweight title at UFC 274 in May. For his part, Makhachev is one of the most dangerous fighters on the ground, having now strung together three straight submission wins, with ten over the course of his impressive 21-1 career. Perhaps a distinguishing characteristic that sets him apart from his fellow Dagestanis is that Makhachev also possesses power in his hands, making him a unique threat on multiple levels.

Green (#15 CC, NR UFC) takes this fight on roughly ten days’ notice. He’s won two in a row, and many fans could reasonably argue he has actually won three straight (depending on your beliefs about the UFC 265 judges). This will be by far his biggest test to date. Green is one of the last holdouts from the Strikeforce invasion of the UFC back in 2013. He has compiled 18 finish wins over his storied career. An upset win here would give him an argument to be able to cap it with a title shot. Whatever happens, his grit and fight-readiness cannot be questioned.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Grit aside, though, there is an argument that Makhachev is the best lightweight on the planet. There is no such argument for Green. You need to be perfect to defeat Makhachev at this stage in his career. A short notice fight, as fun as it may be, is not the recipe. It would be quite a shock if he proves us wrong.

Editor’s Pick: Makhachev

Photo Credit: UFC