The UFC Vegas 48 prelim card features seven bouts, the first four of which will be previewed in this post. All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

Mario Bautista vs. Jay Perrin (Men’s Bantamweight)

Mario Bautista

• Record: 8-2-0
• Division Ranking: 64/79 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -340 (Favorite)

Jay Perrin

• Record: 10-4-0
• Division Ranking: 57/79 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +270 (Underdog)

Bautista was thrown into the fire in his UFC debut back in January of 2019. He faced off against the dangerous Cory Sandhagen (#7 CC, #4 UFC). Bautista was promptly submitted in the very first round. Bautista would turn it around against Jin Soo Son and Miles Johns, earning performance bonuses for each win. Bautista is now coming off a disappointing KO loss to Trevin Jones back at UFC 259. Interestingly, those are Bautista’s only two career losses. He’s never lost a decision.

It’s been a long road to the UFC for the “pride of Lowell, MA.” Perrin made it to Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) and lost, failing to get a UFC contract. The former Cage Titans bantamweight champion then moved out west and captured the CES MMA bantamweight championship quickly. That was when he got the call. In his career, he’s styled himself as more of a ground expert, with four of his ten wins being by submission. He’ll look to add to his resume and make the most of this opportunity.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Not only has Bautista been in the UFC longer, he’s been in some absolute fire fights. It’ll take something special to give Bautista a look he hasn’t seen before. Perrin does not have that. Barring that, it’ll take some talent to be able to power through Bautista nonetheless. It’s tough to say Perrin is that talent at this point.

Editor’s Pick: Bautista

Jonathan Pearce vs. Christian Rodriguez (Men’s Featherweight)

Jonathan Pearce

• Record: 11-4-0
• Division Ranking: 54/73 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: -400 (Favorite)

Christian Rodriguez

• Record: 7-0-0
• Division Ranking: 60/73 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: +310 (Underdog)

Pearce made his UFC debut against longtime UFC veteran Joe Lauzon. It wouldn’t last very long, as Pearce was finished inside the first round. Pearce then rebounded nicely with two straight finishes. A consistent theme in his career, only one of Pearce’s 11 career wins have come via decision. In fact, only two of his 15 career fights have ever gone to the judges. Pearce makes sure things are decided inside the cage.

This paradigm works just fine for Rodriguez, who can also claim that only one of his career wins has ever been left to the judges. That decision win came in his appearance on DWCS. That win failed to earn him a UFC contract. But, after he went out and submitted his opponent in 63 seconds in his next bout, the UFC brass picked up the phone for this undefeated prospect.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This is another case of a relatively green newcomer facing off with a fighter who has already demonstrated a willingness to leave it all in the UFC cage, with positive results. Tough to see an avenue for Rodriguez to stay undefeated.

Editor’s Pick: Pearce

Chad Anheliger vs. Jesse Strader (Men’s Bantamweight)

Chad Anheliger

• Record: 11-5-0
• Division Ranking: 62/79 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -260 (Favorite)

Jesse Strader

• Record: 5-2-0
• Division Ranking: 75/79 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +210 (Underdog)

Anheliger started his MMA career a paltry 2-5, including a dismal streak of three straight submission losses. He would take two years off to re-assess his career. When he came back from his hiatus in May 2016, he never looked back. Anheliger ripped off nine straight victories and has not lost a fight since 2014. He earned a UFC contract on DWCS after pulling out a win despite being a steep +340 underdog. Anheliger is dangerous on the feet and considered one of Canada’s top prospects.

Strader came into his UFC debut last year with relatively little experience. He came in as a sizable underdog to Montel Jackson (the Cage Calculus forecast says he only had a 37.4 percent win probability). That would prove prophetic, as Strader was KO’d in under two minutes. In just five career wins, however, Strader does have four KOs to his name.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This is a perfect matchup for Anheliger. Strader is not a threat on the ground and has less experience than the newcomer. This is as favorable a scenario for a UFC debut as you’ll find.

Editor’s Pick: Anheliger

Diana Belbita vs. Gloria de Paula (Women’s Strawweight)

Diana Belbita

• Record: 14-6-0
• Division Ranking: 29/44 strawweights
• Vegas Odds: -130 (Favorite)

Gloria de Paula

• Record: 5-4-0
• Division Ranking: 43/44 strawweights
• Vegas Odds: +110 (Underdog)

It took three tries, but Belbita (pictured above left) finally earned her first UFC victory in July over Hannah Goldy. It marked Belbita’s first career fight at strawweight, having fought previously at flyweight and bantamweight. A rarity for most female fighters Belbita has a strong 71 percent finishing rate for her career. Prior to joining the UFC, Belbita competed for three separate titles in other promotions, falling short each time.

De Paula (pictured above right) needs a win as badly as anyone in the strawweight division right now. She is 0-2 in the UFC and is coming off a devastating loss to Cheyanne Vlismas (then Buys) back in July. Prior to joining the UFC roster, de Paula had amassed a respectable 5-2 record, including a unanimous decision victory in her DWCS debut, which earned her the contract. Her loss to Vlismas was the first time she’d been finished in her career.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Having fought at higher weight classes, Belbita will have the size advantage in this one. De Paula has shown a willingness to chase submissions on the ground and stay down. This means Belbita should have a grappling field day as long as she avoids being finished. The only wild card is de Paula’s raw power for a smaller fighter.

Editor’s Pick: Belbita

Photo Credit: UFC