The UFC Vegas 48 main card features five bouts. It will feature a hard hitting middleweight matchup between Joaquin Buckley and Abdul Razak Alhassan, as well as an appearance by veteran legend, Jim Miller. The card is capped by a light heavyweight bout between Johnny Walker (pictured above left) and Jamahal Hill (pictured above right). All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

You can find the previews for the prelim fights HERE and HERE.

Joaquin Buckley vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (Men’s Middleweight)

Joaquin Buckley

• Record: 13-4-0
• Division Ranking: 43/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -170 (Favorite)

Abdul Razak Alhassan

• Record: 11-4-0
• Division Ranking: 37/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: +145 (Underdog)

Buckley is best known for perhaps the most spectacular knockout in UFC history, when he put Impa Kasanganay to sleep with an incredible spinning back kick. But, Buckley has shown he’s not a one hit wonder, delivering performance of the night knockouts in every single one of his three UFC wins. Unfortunately for Buckley, in his two UFC losses, he’s been the victim of knockouts that earned his opponents performance of the night bonuses. Buckley has immense power in his hands and isn’t afraid to go into the fire to chase finishes, even at risk of being knocked out himself.

Alhassan began his UFC career on a tear, winning four of his first five. However, he then struggled to make 170 pounds on the scale and lost three in a row despite his weight mishaps. He’s 1-1 since moving up to middleweight and seems more comfortable. His loss was a run-of-the-mill decision. But, his win came in his most recent fight, where he knocked out Alessio di Chirico in just 17 seconds with a head kick. Alhassan has a perfect 100 percent finishing rate, with all 11 of his career wins coming by knockout.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: If the write-ups above weren’t indication enough, it will be shocking if this fight goes the distance. This is matchmaking brilliance. In what could go either way, the slight advantage may rest with Alhassan who certainly has the muscle mass in his legs to endure the kick heavy approach of Buckley. That could be the difference.

Editor’s Pick: Alhassan

Jim Miller vs. Nikolas Motta (Men’s Lightweight)

Jim Miller

• Record: 33-16-0
• Division Ranking: 24/84 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +150 (Underdog)

Nikolas Motta

• Record: 12-3-0
• Division Ranking: 63/84 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -175 (Favorite)

Miller truly is becoming an ageless wonder. He’ll step into the octagon today for his 39th bout in the UFC and 49th of his career. Each of his last two victories earned him performance of the night honors. In his last bout, he displayed precision striking, a rarity for Miller, who is known for his grappling ability. Miller Has 18 career submission wins and is tied with champion Charles Oliveira for the most in the history of the lightweight division.

Miller will welcome the newcomer Motta to the UFC octagon. Motta won the Cage Fury FC lightweight championship in 2019, which earned him a look for Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS). A win there secured his UFC contract. After three fight cancellations, he finally gets his debut over a year later. Motta is better in the standup game, eight of his 12 wins coming by knockout.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This is a matchup of grappling versus striking and age versus youth. Miller is dominant on the ground and will look to make it there early before his cardio gives out. Motta has been vulnerable, with half of his career losses coming by submission. The path to victory is there for the veteran.

Editor’s Pick: Miller

Parker Porter vs. Alan Baudot (Men’s Heavyweight)

Parker Porter

• Record: 11-6-0
• Division Ranking: 34/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -270 (Favorite)

Alan Baudot

• Record: 8-2-0
• Division Ranking: 37/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +220 (Underdog)

Porter is on the upswing in his UFC career. After losing his debut to the dangerous contender, Chris Daukaus (NR CC, #8 UFC), he’s ripped off two straight victories. One concern is Porter’s relative inability to finish fights. Both of his UFC wins have come by decision. That is not necessarily a recipe for success moving up in this division in particular. You’ll eventually run across someone who can finish you. It’ll be a trend he’ll look to end here against Baudot.

Baudot is still searching for his first UFC win. He was finished inside the first round by Tom Aspinall (#12 CC, #11 UFC) in his debut. Baudot was also finished in his second fight, but because of a low blow and a subsequent failed drug test by Rodrigo Nascimento, the bout was changed to a no contest. He’ll look to reclaim his pre-UFC success, where he was undefeated, having never gone to a decision.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Baudot is more athleticly built than most heavyweights. Given his finishing ability, he should be able to get some clean shots in on Porter. The question is whether he can finish, as Baudot typically gasses himself out quickly and gets finished. But, if Baudot gets there first, cardio is less of an issue.

Editor’s Pick: Baudot

Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett (Men’s 195lb Catchweight)

Kyle Daukaus

• Record: 10-2-0
• Division Ranking: 34/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -280 (Favorite)

Jamie Pickett

• Record: 13-6-0
• Division Ranking: 60/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: +230 (Underdog)

It looked like Daukaus might have had the marquee win he’d been searching for his last time out. Almost four minutes into his bout with Kevin Holland (# 15 CC, #14 UFC), it appeared as though Daukaus had the highlight reel finish. On review, it was an accidental clash of heads that knocked Holland unconscious and the bout was ruled a no contest. Daukaus is only 1-2 thus far in his UFC career. He is, however, dangerous on the ground, having eight submissions in ten career victories.

After losing his first two UFC bouts, Pickett turned things around with two straight wins and is looking to keep the momentum going. A mere five weeks removed from his last fight, Pickett will take this fight on short notice, replacing the injured Julian Marquez. Pickett is big for this division, hence the need for a catchweight bout on short notice. He also has eight knockouts to his name.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This is a tough matchup for Pickett. He’ll have to look for the early KO, as his cardio will likely be drained early, at which point Daukaus, the superior grappler can have his way on the ground.

Editor’s Pick: Daukaus

[12] Johnny Walker vs. Jamahal Hill (Men’s Light Heavyweight)

Johnny Walker

• Record: 18-6-0
• Division Ranking: 13/41 light heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +200 (Underdog)

Jamahal Hill

• Record: 9-1-0
• Division Ranking: 19/41 light heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -240 (Favorite)

There was a time when many thought Walker (#12 CC, #10 UFC) might be the man to unseat Jon Jones. Walker stormed into the UFC delivering three consecutive first round knockouts. However, he then hit a wall, falling in consecutive bouts to Corey Anderson and Nikita Krylov (#11 CC, #9 UFC). After delivering another first round KO of Ryan Spann (#13 CC, #13 UFC), Walker again failed to climb the ladder when he faced off against Thiago Santos (#5 CC, #5 UFC) last year. Walker has all the talent in the world, but gets himself in trouble once the first round is over.

Hill (NR CC, #12 UFC) has his unbeaten career record blemished last summer at UFC 263, when Paul Craig (#7 CC, #11 UFC) twisted his arm all sorts of ways in an armbar before finishing with ground and pound. Hill recovered nicely with a first round, first minute KO his next time out. Hill has power in his hands, but surprisingly only has five finishes in nine career wins.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Walker is the more talented, faster fighter. However, Hill has the stamina to go five rounds, where Walker could find himself in dire straits if the fight goes long. Walker showed he could hang with Santos for a full five, even if he did get the loss in the end. Expect he’ll have learned from that going into another main event slot.

Editor’s Pick: Walker

Photo Credit: UFC