The UFC Vegas 271 prelim card features nine bouts, the remaining five of which will be previewed in this post. These five fights take place across four different weight classes and features the final fight in the career of UFC flyweight, Roxanne Modafferi (pictured above right) against contender Casey O’Neill (pictured above left). All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

You can find the projections for the first four HERE.

William Knight vs. Maxim Grishin (Men’s Heavyweight)

William Knight

• Record: 11-2-0
• Division Ranking: 23/41 light heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +140 (Underdog)

Maxim Grishin

• Record: 31-9-2
• Division Ranking: 20/41 light heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -165 (Favorite)

Knight typically fights as a light heavyweight. However, he came into this fight on short notice and missed weight by a whopping 12 pounds, forcing the bout to be moved to heavyweight. Aside from the failure to make weight, Knight has been on a roll of late. He’s 3-1 since joining the UFC. Two of those wins were decisions, proving he has the cardio to survive the full three rounds (they are the only two decision wins of his career). His other win was a performance of the night KO over Fabio Cherant, who also fights on this card.

Grishin has over 40 pro fights to his name. However, only three have been inside the UFC. He began with a one-ff heavyweight bout, losing to Marcin Tybura (#6 CC, #9 UFC). He then split his next two, having missed weight in his most recent bout, falling in defeat. He does have a stunning 22 finishes in his career (16 KOs, 6 submissions).

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Ordinarily, a fighter on short notice does not inspire confidence. However, Knight missed weight by 12 pounds and will be the much bigger fighter in the cage. That can make a difference. It’s a shame, but Grishin accepted the fight.

Editor’s Pick: Knight

Mana Martinez vs. Ronnie Lawrence (Men’s Bantamweight)

Mana Martinez

• Record: 9-2-0
• Division Ranking: 63/77 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +240 (Underdog)

Ronnie Lawrence

• Record: 7-1-0
• Division Ranking: 59/77 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -300 (Favorite)

Martinez scraped out a win in his UFC debut. He won a split decision over Guido Cannetti. Prior, Martinez was the long-reigning Fury FC bantamweight champion. He missed an opportunity for a UFC contract sooner, losing his DWCS appearance. However, after defending his Fury belt another two times, he secured a deal with the UFC brass. In his nine career wins, Martinez has eight KOs, with the split decisions over Cannetti being the only non-finish win of his career.

Unlike his counterpart, Lawrence won his appearance on DWCS, earning a UFC contract in September 2020. Lawrence then rolled through his debut, delivering a KO victory that earned him performance of the night honors from the UFC. Lawrence doesn’t quite have the finishing rate that Martinez does, but he is efficient nonetheless. Lawrence will finally get back into the octagon after having two fights cancelled last July.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Lawrence has shown himself to be stronger under the bright lights. Between two men making their second appearance, there’s no reason to think Lawrence won’t pick up where he left off.

Editor’s Pick: Lawrence

Kyler Phillips vs. Marcelo Rojo (Men’s Bantamweight)

Kyler Phillips

• Record: 9-2-0
• Division Ranking: 43/77 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -420 (Favorite)

Marcelo Rojo

• Record: 16-8-0
• Division Ranking: 70/77 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +330 (Underdog)

Phillips made quick work of his first two UFC fights, earning two wins and two bonuses from the UFC. He then stepped up the competition, winning a unanimous decision over the dangerous Chinese contender Song Yadong (#13 CC, #14 UFC). His last time out, Phillips narrowly lost a majority decision to Raulian Paiva. The only other loss in his career came against Victor Henry (#15 CC, NR UFC) before both were in the UFC. Phillips has faced off with some of the best bantamweights in the world and has more than held his own.

Rojo, on the other hand, has yet to register a UFC win. In his one and only fight thus far, he was knocked out by Charles Jourdain in a very entertaining bout. Rojo does have the ability to end a fight at any time, delivering 14 finishes over his 16 career wins. And, he has proved he can do it from anywhere, with eight KOs and six submissions. He’s dangerous on the feet and on the ground.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: As impressive as Rojo’s finishing ability is, he has never faced a fighter of the quality of Phillips. This will be a test and one it is unlikely he’ll pass.

Editor’s Pick: Phillips

Roxanne Modafferi vs. [6] Casey O’Neill (Women’s Flyweight)

Roxanne Modafferi

• Record: 25-20-0
• Division Ranking: 38/42 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +310 (Underdog)

Casey O’Neill

• Record: 8-0-0
• Division Ranking: 7/42 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -400 (Favorite)

Modafferi (NR CC, #12 UFC) has had a storied career. She challenged for the inaugural UFC flyweight title back in 2017. She has fought some of the best the division has to offer, including delivering one of the most stunning upsets in division history with her defeat of Maycee Barber (#12 CC, #13 UFC) at UFC 246. This will be her twelfth fight in the UFC and, she’s announced, her last. Win or lose, she’s truly a pioneer in the sport and in this weight class.

O’Neill (#6 CC, #15 UFC) is one of many supremely talented young fighters coming up in the women’s flyweight division. She’s 3-0 in the UFC, with all three wins coming by finish. The most recent was a brutal ground and pound KO over Antonina Shevchenko. At the rate she’s going, O’Neill will eventually earn another matchup with that family, facing off against current champ Valentina Shevchenko. O’Neill has said she’s not in a hurry to get a title shot and wants to work her way through the rankings for a couple of years. If we’re not seeing her at her best yet, it’s hard to imagine how scary she’ll be when it’s time for her to make a run.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Don’t overthink this. As much as the sentimental side of most MMA fans want to see Modafferi go out on top, O’Neill is just too good and better in every facet.

Editor’s Pick: O’Neill

[15] Andrei Arlovski vs. Jared Vanderaa (Men’s Heavyweight)

Andrei Arlovski

• Record: 32-20-0
• Division Ranking: 16/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -150 (Favorite)

Jared Vanderaa

• Record: 12-6-0
• Division Ranking: 36/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +125 (Underdog)

Speaking of retirements, most have been waiting for Arlovski (#15 CC, NR UFC) to hang it up for a while now. However, at 43 years old, he’s not slowing down. He’s won four of his last five. The former champion may be a shadow of his former self, but he is still finding ways to earn victories inside the octagon, no small task no matter who you are. At some point, the UFC may have to consider giving him ranked opponents if he keeps running through prospects like this. Arlovski is the UFC’s longest tenured vet, having made his promotional debut at UFC 28 in November of 2000.

Vanderaa is the latest prospect to attempt to end Arlovski magical career resurgence. And, while he’s at it, would like to revive his own career. Vanderaa is a disappointing 1-2 in three fights in the UFC. He has displayed flashes of greatness, with an 83 percent finishing rate over his career. However, he hasn’t been able to get to the next level against top tier talent. This is good matchmaking from the UFC, as Arlovski now serves as a quasi-gatekeeper for the upper echelons of the division.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Eventually, Arlovski’s streak will come to an end and his age will catch up to him… but not tonight!

Editor’s Pick: Arlovski

Photo Credit: ClutchPoints