The UFC Vegas 271 main card features five bouts. The card features a pivotal middleweight matchup between contenders Derek Brunson and Jared Cannonier. It also features a bout between entertaining heavyweights Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. It is headlined by a middleweight championship rematch between champion Israel Adesanya and #1 contender, Robert Whittaker. All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

You can find the projections for the prelim card(s) HERE and HERE.

Bobby Green vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Men’s Lightweight)

Bobby Green

• Record: 28-12-1
• Division Ranking: 19/84 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -150 (Favorite)

Nasrat Haqparast

• Record: 13-4-0
• Division Ranking: 47/84 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +125 (Underdog)

Green is coming off a stunner knockout at UFC 268 over Al Iaquinta. It marked the first time in Iaquinta’s long career he’d been knocked out. It was a bit of redemption for Green, who lost a brutal decision against Rafael Fiziev (NR CC, #11 UFC) at UFC 265. He also lost a decision to another dangerous lightweight Thiago Moises in October 2020. Green has now been in the UFC for nine years, being one of the last holdouts from the 2013 Strikeforce invasion of the UFC. He is 9-7-1 in his 17 bouts since. Green is still getting matched up with high level fighters and, even in defeat, showing he belongs.

Despite a loss his last time out to Dan Hooker (#14 CC, #8 UFC), Haqparast turned in one of the feel good stories of UFC 266. Amidst troubles in his home nation of Afghanistan, a death in the family, and visa issues, Haqparast was able to make it to the fight and turn in a respectable performance. Haqparast has been looking for a boost to the top, but seems to be limited by a ceiling when he faces top tier competition. Green might now serve the role as gatekeeper to that top tier and a sufficient bridge for Haqparast to finally begin his ascent.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Haqparast only has one KO in four UFC wins. Green has shown his power hasn’t gone away with age. Green also has eight submission wins, whereas Haqparast has none. This is a matchup nightmare for the Afghan.

Editor’s Pick: Green

Alexander Hernandez vs. Renato Moicano (Men’s Lightweight)

Alexander Hernandez

• Record: 13-4-0
• Division Ranking: 26/84 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +135 (Underdog)

Renato Moicano

• Record: 15-4-1
• Division Ranking: 31/84 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -160 (Favorite)

Ever since Hernandez stunned Beneil Dariush (#6 CC, #3 UFC) in his UFC debut, Hernandez has been alternating wins and losses, whereas Dariush hasn’t lost since and appears one win away from a title shot. All this is to say that Hernandez certainly has the talent to beat the best of the best, but it hasn’t been seen consistently on display for some time. Hernandez holds a 62 percent finishing rate for his entire career (six knockouts, two submissions).

Moicano fought the who’s who of the featherweight division for years. He’s faced down the likes of Brian Ortega (#2 CC, #2 UFC), Calvin Kattar (#4 CC, #5 UFC), Jose Aldo (#2 CC/bw, #3 UFC/bw), and Chan Sung Jung (#7 CC, #4 UFC). Now, Moicano has stepped up to lightweight. He’s 2-1 with two submissions thus far. His lone loss came to the aforementioned Fiziev. Moicano is an expert jiu-jitsu artist, holding eight submissions in his career.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Moicano will no doubt try to get this to the ground. However, Hernandez will likely be a bit bigger in the cage to mitigate that.

Editor’s Pick: Hernandez

[13] Jared Cannonier vs. [3] Derek Brunson (Men’s Middleweight)

Jared Cannonier

• Record: 14-5-0
• Division Ranking: 14/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -160 (Favorite)

Derek Brunson

• Record: 23-7-0
• Division Ranking: 4/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: +135 (Underdog)

Cannonier (#13 CC, #3 UFC) has been knocking on the door of a title shot for a good while now. The champ even called him out to let him know if he was able to beat Robert Whittaker at UFC 254, he’d be next in line. Cannonier was defeated soundly. That was his only loss at middleweight in his career, as Cannonier actually started his UFC career at heavyweight, before moving down to light heavyweight, and then again to middleweight. Cannonier has defeated the likes of middleweight GOAT Anderson Silva and fellow top contender Jack Hermansson (#4 CC, #7 UFC). He’s a scary man in the cage, with a 79 percent finish rate for his career.

Since Brunson (#3 CC, #4 UFC) lost to Israel Adesanya (in a non-title fight) at UFC 230. Since then, he hasn’t looked back, winning five straight. He’s displayed serious wrestling improvement and hasn’t really faced much danger in his last five fights. Brunson says he will only fight once more after this fight so he can retire (he is 38 years old) and spend more time with family. If he beats Cannonier, he may be in line for a title shot to close out his career, but this admission might scare away UFC brass from the possibility of a champ winning and retiring (GSP flashbacks). We’ll just have to see what happens when the dust settles.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Brunson has looked to be the more impressive fighter lately. The only question mark is his age, but Cannonier is on the older side at 37 as well. Being a former heavyweight, Cannonier’s cardio might fail him in the later rounds if he can’t get a finish.

Editor’s Pick: Brunson

[2] Derrick Lewis vs. [7] Tai Tuivasa (Men’s Heavyweight)

Derrick Lewis

• Record: 26-8-0
• Division Ranking: 3/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -190 (Favorite)

Tai Tuivasa

• Record: 13-3-0
• Division Ranking: 8/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +160 (Underdog)

Lewis (#2 CC, #3 UFC) owns the record for most knockouts in UFC history with 13 just since he joined the UFC. He has a staggering 21 over the course of his career. Lewis has made a name for sitting back and waiting for that one kill shot and it hasn’t failed him much. Even when he’s down, he’s never entirely out of the fight because of that nuclear option. Lewis has made it difficult for anyone else to get close to the heavyweight title picture, having dispatched the likes of Alexander Volkov (#4 CC, #5 UFC), Curtis Blaydes (#5 CC, #4 UFC), and Chris Daukaus (NR CC, #7 UFC). At 37, he stands waiting for the next comer to challenge his place in the top 3.

That challenger is none other than Tuivasa (#7 CC, #11 UFC), another one of the most fun heavyweights in the world of MMA. Tuivasa has 13 wins in his career, with all but one ending by knockout. Tuivasa is now on a four-fight win streak, where he’s delivered his famous “shoey” at the end of each. The antics shouldn’t fool anyone. He is a serious contender and at 28, already has ten fights in the UFC. He’s on the upswing and will only become more dangerous in the months and years to come.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Don’t expect this fight to exit the first round. But, if it does, Tuivasa has shown himself to be more dynamic, which will likely frustrate Lewis, who’s sitting and waiting on that one knockout blow. So, why not prepare for another shoey?

Editor’s Pick: Tuivasa

[C] Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker (Men’s Middleweight Championship)

Israel Adesanya

• Record: 21-1-0
• Division Ranking: 1/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -280 (Favorite)

Robert Whittaker

• Record: 23-5-0
• Division Ranking: 2/67 middlweights
• Vegas Odds: +230 (Underdog)

Adesanya is looking to make his case to overtake Anderson Silva as the greatest middleweight of all-time. He’s now won five title fights. Despite his stumble in his bid to become a two division champion, Adesanya is still the undisputed king at 185 pounds. He’s run through the best of the best and is now “lapping the division,” coming back around to the man from whom he took the middleweight belt back in 2019. Adesanya is one of the most precise strikers in the history of the UFC and it shows, as he has 15 KOs in his career. Only in his bout for the interim title against Kelvin Gastelum (NR CC, #10 UFC) did Adesanya ever appear to be in trouble.

The middleweight division has been trying to move past Whittaker (#1 CC, #1 UFC), but “The Reaper” just won’t allow it. Whittaker has won 12 of his last 13 fights, with the lone loss being his title unification bout against Adesanya in 2019. Since, he has dispatched the aforementioned Cannonier, Darren Till (NR CC, #8 UFC), and Gastelum. This has forced the UFC and the champ, Adesanya to recognize he is the #1 contender and it is time to renew the rivalry. Whittaker doesn’t have the dazzling finish rate Adesanya does (14 finishes in 23 wins), but he does vary his finishes. Where Adesanya has all KOs, Whittaker has nine KOs and five submissions. Whittaker can win the ground game if he can get it there, but Adesanya has shown very good takedown defense at middleweight.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: If anyone can beat Adesanya at 185 pounds, it is Whittaker. This is one of the most underrated rivalries in the UFC today. However, every time someone thinks they’ve found a way to beat Adesanya, he defies the new so-called wisdom. This is one to watch, but expect to hear “And Still” from Bruce Buffer at the end of the night.

Editor’s Pick: Adesanya

Photo Credit: UFC