After a two-week hiatus, the UFC is back this weekend for UFC Vegas 47. The UFC Vegas 47 prelim card features seven bouts, the final three of which will be previewed in this post. All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

You can view the first set of prelim projections HERE.

Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Chidi Njokuani (Men’s Middleweight)

Marc-Andre Barriault

• Record: 13-4-0
• Division Ranking: 26/66 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -115 (Favorite)

Chidi Njokuani

• Record: 20-7-0
• Division Ranking: 40/66 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -105 (Underdog)

Barriault appears to be in the midst of a career resurgence. The Canadian fighter came into the UFC 11-1 as a pro and was a two division champ in the TKO promotion. However, he dropped each of his first three fights and had his first win nullified after testing positive for a banned substance. Now he finds himself on a two-fight win streak, looking for his third in only an eleven-month span. Barriault finds himself on the winning side of finishes, having a 69.2 percent finishing rate while having never been finished himself.

Njokuani is carrying on the legacy of his older brother Anthony, who used to fight in the UFC (and now fights for Eagle FC). Njokuani is relatively old for a debut fighter at 33 years of age. Njokuani also has a decent 65 percent finishing rate. However, in his seven losses, he’s been finished six times. He’s particularly vulnerable to submissions. Though, his saving grace is that Barriault has never won via submission. Njokuani lost two straight to end his Bellator career, but he followed that up with a win in LFA and a win on DWCS to earn a UFC contract.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This fight will no doubt take place on the feet, with neither fighter having a dangerous submission game. Barriault has the advantage of both UFC experience and being the younger fighter. He should be able to win what will be a close fight.

Editor’s Pick: Barriault

Hakeem Dawodu vs. Mike Trizano (Men’s Featherweight)

Hakeem Dawodu

• Record: 12-2-1
• Division Ranking: 34/75 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: -170 (Favorite)

Mike Trizano

• Record: 9-1-0
• Division Ranking: 37/75 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: +145 (Underdog)

After losing his UFC debut, Dawodu (pictured above) never looked back, winning five straight, including a performance of the night KO over Yoshinori Horie. This will actually be the first time since July of 2018 that Dawodu is not fighting on a pay-per-view card. That win streak was snapped at UFC 263 in June by the dangerous Movsar Evloev (#8 CC, #13 UFC). Still, Dawodu remains one of the most exciting featherweights.

Trizano came into the UFC a perfect 6-0 and backed it up by winning each of his first two. He then dropped down to featherweight and lost the first bout of his career to Grant Dawson. He would follow it up with an impressive win over spectacular finisher L’udovit Klein. Trizano does not have the best finishing rate in the world (44.4 percent) but he almost always manages to walk out with a win.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Dawodu’s average opponent is rated 1639.2 by the CC forecast, whereas Trizano’s average opponent is a 1609.1. You have to keep in mind Trizano may be slightly bigger, being the former lightweight, whereas Dawodu is a natural featherweight. Both fighters often win by split decision as well and both are 30 years old. This could not be much closer on paper if you wanted it to be. With all else being equal, trust the forecast and the oddsmakers when they agree.

Editor’s Pick: Dawodu

Miles John vs. John Castaneda (Men’s Bantamweight)

Miles John

• Record: 12-1-0
• Division Ranking: 35/80 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -190 (Favorite)

John Castaneda

• Record: 18-5-0
• Division Ranking: 41/80 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +160 (Underdog)

Johns promises excitement when he steps into the ring. Not only is he on a two-fight win streak, but he is on a two-fight performance bonus streak. UFC 247 saw Mario Bautista end his career unbeaten record, but that remains the only blemish to his name thus far. At 27 years old, the sky is the limit for Johns if he can keep progressively knocking off stronger competition. Johns is a former LFA bantamweight champion and boasts a 50 percent career finishing rate.

Castaneda is a boom or bust fighter. He has 13 finishes in 18 career wins. However, fighters who can keep up pressure often give him trouble. If he catches you with his counter left or gets you to the ground, that’s often all she wrote. His short UFC career has shown that as well. He lost a decision to Nathaniel Wood in his debut before delivering a first round KO to veteran Eddie Wineland.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This fight promises to be a fight of the night contender. Johns’ style matches up very well to Castaneda. However, Castaneda has the clearer paths to victory. A finish bodes well for him, whereas the fight going the distance will likely swing in Johns’ favor. A lot of people are sleeping on the finishing ability of Castaneda. Expect him to defy the doubters with his power.

Editor’s Pick: Castaneda

Photo Credit: Sportsnet.ca