After a two-week hiatus, the UFC is back this weekend for UFC Vegas 47. The UFC Vegas 47 main card features six bouts. It will see the return of undefeated Kazakh prospect Shavkat Rakhmonov and an Ultimate Fighter grudge match between Bryan Battle and Tresean Gore. The card is capped by a matchup between middleweight contenders Jack Hermansson and Sean Strickland. All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

You can find the previews for the prelim fights HERE and HERE.

Julian Erosa vs. Steven Peterson (Men’s Featherweight)

Julian Erosa

• Record: 26-10-0
• Division Ranking: 36/75 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: -310 (Favorite)

Steven Peterson

• Record: 19-9-0
• Division Ranking: 50/75 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: +250 (Underdog)

March 9, 2019 was the last time an Erosa fight went the full distance. He has a propensity for finishes, with a whopping 23 of his 26 wins coming before the final horn. A majority of his losses have also been by way of knockout (five of nine). Since rejoining the UFC in 2020, Erosa is 3-1, with his lone loss being to Seung Woo Choi, who is currently ranked 41st of 75 featherweights. Erosa remains firmly entrenched in the middle of the pack in this weight division.

This is now the second straight fight where Peterson has missed weight. Peterson came in three pounds over the non-title bout featherweight limit at 149 pounds yesterday. This is a shame, as he’s coming off of an impressive win over Chase Hooper and a performance of the night win over Martin Bravo. Overall, Peterson is 3-3 in the UFC. He’s known for his submission ability, with eight of his wins coming via submission.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Erosa has the clear skill advantage. The only wild card is whether Peterson will have better stamina or size because he clearly gave up on the weight cut. Despite that potential shake-up, feel confident picking Erosa in this one.

Editor’s Pick: Erosa

Tresean Gore vs. Bryan Battle (Men’s Middleweight)

Tresean Gore

• Record: 3-0-0
• Division Ranking: 64/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -150 (Favorite)

Bryan Battle

• Record: 7-1-0
• Division Ranking: 51/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: +125 (Underdog)

Gore was meant to face Battle last year in the Ultimate Fighter 29 finale. However, a knee injury forced him to bow out. He now has the opportunity to get that matchup. Gore has very little pro MMA experience, with only three official bouts to his name. He’s gone across the board with results with one win each by decision, KO, and submission. He has another KO ad another decision if you count his two exhibition fights in the Ultimate Fighter house. He’ll look to show why he was the favorite to win the show.

Battle earned his UFC contract by choking out Gore’s replacement, Gilbert Urbina back in August. Where Gore is more rounded, Battle is clearly at home on the ground, with four of his six pro wins being via submission (with a fifth coming while he was on the show). He’ll now have an opportunity to silence all the doubters who believe he only won because of Gore’s injury.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Experience matters and Battle has almost three times as many fights to his name. He also knows what it’s like to win under the UFC bright lights. There’s also a question as to whether Gore will be the same after the knee injury (even if only slightly impacted). The oddsmakers clearly think Gore will be back and better. We’re not as sold.

Editor’s Pick: Battle

Sam Alvey vs. Brendan Allen (Men’s Light Heavyweight)

Sam Alvey

• Record: 33-16-1
• Division Ranking: 50/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: +330 (Underdog)

Brendan Allen

• Record: 17-5-0
• Division Ranking: 19/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -420 (Favorite)

This bout is being contested at 205 pounds after Phil Hawes dropped out due to injury. Facing a top fighter who’s coming in on short notice might be just what the doctor ordered for Alvey. If anyone needs a win in the worst way, it is him. He is 0-6-1 in his last seven bouts. His last win came in June of 2018. This is a shame, as there was a time where Alvey was facing the best of the middleweight division and, for the most part, was winning. His career has since fallen off a table and he needs to resurrect it soon to avoid being cut.

Allen takes this fight on short notice, trying to work his way back into the middleweight rankings. Back in December, he was on the wrong side of a KO at the hands of Chris Curtis (#9 CC, NR UFC). His only other loss in the UFC came against tonight’s headliner, Sean Strickland. In his debut, Allen submitted Kevin Holland (#14 CC, #14 UFC). He is on the cusp of making a run in the middleweight division. This quick turnaround could be what he needs to erase the taste of his last bout.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: The only thing that could stall Allen is the short notice nature. However, Alvey has had three different scheduled opponents for this bout. His training won’t be as tuned to Allen as it otherwise would be either. No need to overthink too hard. Allen is a safe pick.

Editor’s Pick: Allen

[12] Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris (Men’s Welterweight)

Shavkat Rakhmonov

• Record: 14-0-0
• Division Ranking: 13/78 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -230 (Favorite)

Carlston Harris

• Record: 17-4-0
• Division Ranking: 44/78 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: +190 (Underdog)

There are few fighters in the UFC with a higher ceiling than Rakhmonov (#12 CC, NR UFC). He is a perfect 14-0 in his career. All 14 wins have been finishes. Seven have come by KO and seven by submission. He is dangerous everywhere in all facets. Both of his wins have come by choke submissions in the UFC against Alex Oliveira and Michel Prazeres respectively. He may not be as flashy as Khamzat Chimaev (NR CC, #11 UFC), but Rakhmonov will be an equally dangerous name to watch make an assault on the top 15 for years to come.

Harris will have something to say about this hype. He is also 2-0 in the UFC, with both fights ending with a finish. Both also came inside the first round. Harris has ten finishes overall in his career. Like Rakhmonov, they are evenly split between KOs and submissions. Harris has also stayed active, having fought three times in 2021, whereas his opponent has only fought once in the last year.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: The writeup on Rakhmonov says it all. His talent is undeniable and it will take someone of a much higher caliber to defeat him. Harris is plenty talented, but there are just different levels. Don’t get cute here.

Editor’s Pick: Rakhmonov

Punahele Soriano vs. Nick Maximov (Men’s Middleweight)

Punahele Soriano

• Record: 8-1-0
• Division Ranking: 34/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -190 (Favorite)

Nick Maximov

• Record: 7-0-0
• Division Ranking: 47/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: +160 (Underdog)

Soriano is coming off of his first pro defeat to the aforementioned Allen. Prior to that, Soriano was borderline unstoppable. Seven of his eight wins have come by finishes in the first round. The lone decision win came over Jamie Pickett in his one appearance on DWCS. The win proved he had the stamina to win a fight longer than one round against UFC caliber talent. He’ll look to show his loss to Allen did not derail his career momentum entirely.

Maximov made the most of his UFC debut back in September, beating Cody Brundage easily. A product of the Nick Diaz Academy, Maximov is known for his superior grappling. He makes frequent appearances on Submission Underground and has three submission wins to his name already in his short career. Getting a matchup against someone as hot as Soriano is a big tacit endorsement from UFC brass in just his second UFC appearance.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: It’s been over three years since Soriano submitted anyone. He’s developed a fantastic standup game. If Maximov can get it down, however, it could be over quickly. Maximov has a path to victory and has never tasted defeat. This might be the spot to look for an upset on this card.

Editor’s Pick: Maximov

[3] Sean Strickland vs. [4] Jack Hermansson (Men’s Middleweight)

Sean Strickland

• Record: 24-3-0
• Division Ranking: 4/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -220 (Favorite)

Jack Hermansson

• Record: 22-6-0
• Division Ranking: 5/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: +180 (Underdog)

Strickland (#3 CC, #7 UFC) may not be the most flashy fighter in the middleweight division (though he certainly comes off as a bit of a psychopath if you follow his social media). However, he is as dangerous as anyone in the top 15 right now. Since returning from a near fatal motorcycle accident, he’s been unstoppable, winning each of his last four fights with ease. In fact, Strickland has never lost a bout at middleweight. Each of his three losses have come at welterweight, including a bout against Kamaru Usman at UFC 210. Though Strickland has won some lopsided decisions as of late, he has ten KOs to his name.

Hermansson (#4 CC, #6 UFC) has been struggling to break through in the middleweight division. After winning four straight in 2018-2019, he fell at the hands of Jared Cannonier (#13 CC, #3 UFC), stunting his title hopes. He then got back on track against Kelvin Gastelum (NR CC, #10 UFC) with a first round submission. However, he’d again drop a fight to Marvin Vettori (#5 CC, #2 UFC). He recovered again with a win over Edmen Shahbazyan and will look to kick off what could be his last chance at a title run with a statement win against a guy like Strickland.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: With the middleweight belt on the line next week, this is a sneaky good contest to get prime position to challenge next. The winner of Brunson-Cannonier next week will also have something to say about that. In terms of the fight, Strickland has not looked touchable since returning from his accident. No one enjoys getting in there and going to war than he does. It’s hard to bet against a guy who’s on a roll, loves doing it, and has that wild card factor. We won’t.

Editor’s Pick: Strickland

Photo Credit: UFC