The UFC 270 main card features five fights, capped by two championship bouts. The first is for the men’s flyweight title, with the third consecutive matchup between champion Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo. The main event is for the heavyweight championship of the world between champion Francis Ngannou and interim champion Ciryl Gane. All win probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

You can view the previews for the prelim fights HERE and HERE.

Michael Morales vs. Trevin Giles (Men’s Welterweight)

Michael Morales

• Record: 12-0-0
• Division Ranking: 41/78 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -120 (Favorite)

Trevin Giles

• Record: 14-3-0
• Division Ranking: 45/78 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: +100 (Underdog)

Morales is yet another young undefeated prospect who has high hopes for success in the UFC. Morales is a perfect 12-0 with nine knockouts that all came within the first two rounds. Dana White believes in him, giving him a contract after one DWCS appearance. The sky is clearly the limit for this 22 year-old fighter.

Giles will be looking for a resurgence after getting knocked out badly against Dricus du Plessis his last time out. He’ll try to do so by dropping from middleweight to welterweight. Giles has actually fought as highly as light heavyweight in his career. Prior to the du Plessis loss, Giles was riding a three-fight win streak. He holds a 5-3 overall record in the UFC and boasts a 78.5 percent finishing rate for his career.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: The theory of the case here is fairly clear cut. Morales is a relatively inexperienced, young, standup fighter. He will face an experienced fighter who is more comfortable in the ground game and naturally fights at a heavier weight class. Giles will likely utilize a wrestling heavy approach to neutralize the newcomer and other than Morales’ raw talent, it’s tough to see why it won’t work. Bet the underdog.

Editor’s Pick: Giles

Cody Stamann vs. Said Nurmagomedov (Men’s Bantamweight)

Cody Stamann

• Record: 19-4-1
• Division Ranking: 22/80 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +160 (Underdog)

Said Nurmagomedov

• Record: 14-2-0
• Division Ranking: 27/80 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -190 (Favorite)

The first thing that stands out on Stamann’s UFC resume is the quality of opponents he’s faced thus far. Since joining the big promotion, Stamann has posted a 5-3-1 record. However, those three losses came at the hands of current bantamweight champion, Aljamain Sterling, former top contender Jimmie Rivera, and current rising contender Merab Dvalishvili (#13 CC, #6 UFC). Outside of that Stamann has been able to run through his competition. He doesn’t have a terribly high finish rate, with only eight finishes of his 19 career wins.

Nurmagomedov (no relation to Khabib) is looking to be the bantamweight division’s representative in the Dagestani takeover of the UFC. With the exception of a defeat to fellow UFC 270 fighter Raoni Barcelos (#11 CC, NR UFC), Nurmagomedov has been perfect in his UFC career thus far. Unlike many of his Dagestani counterparts, Nurmagomedov has actually scored more KOs than submissions in his career (four KOs to only three submissions). He has a 50 percent finishing rate for his career.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Stamann has more experience in the octagon and has faced heavier competition. There is also a thought that Nurmagomedov may have had a difficult weight cut, arriving much later than all of the other non-heavyweight fighters to the scales. However, Nurmagomedov has been more dominant throughout his career and has been in the cage with tougher than Stamann. With the forecast being so close, you should feel okay bucking it to go with Nurmagomedov on this one.

Editor’s Pick: Nurmagomedov

Michel Pereira vs. Andre Fialho (Men’s Welterweight)

Michel Pereira

• Record: 26-11-0
• Division Ranking: 40/78 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -280 (Favorite)

Andre Fialho

• Record: 14-3-0
• Division Ranking: 63/78 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: +230 (Underdog)

Pereira is one of the most exciting fighters to watch in all of MMA, let alone the UFC. He frequently attempts runs up the cage, backflips into mount, and even flips inside the octagon. He is a showman through and through. After losing a stunning upset to Tristan Connelly and being disqualified for an illegal knee against Diego Sanchez, Pereira has strung together three straight wins. Add to that his staggering 17 career finish wins, this is shaping up to be another exciting watch.

He was originally slated to face Muslim Salikhov (NR CC, #15 UFC) in this bout. However, an injury to Salikhov put the bout off. Salikhov will be replaced by the UFC newcomer Fialho. Fialho holds notable wins over former UFC stars James Vick and Stefan Sekulic. This may not be the exact scenario he’d envisioned for his UFC debut, but he can turn it all around with another KO. He’s no stranger as he’s accumulated 11 over just 14 career wins.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: There is no spin here. Pereira is a supremely talented fighter, where Fialho is a newcomer coming in on roughly one week’s notice. The forecast knows what will happen, the oddsmakers know, and you should too.

Editor’s Pick: Pereira

[C] Brandon Moreno vs. [1] Deiveson Figueiredo (Men’s Flyweight Championship)

Brandon Moreno

• Record: 19-5-2
• Division Ranking: 2/32 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -175 (Favorite)

Deiveson Figueiredo

• Record: 20-2-1
• Division Ranking: 1/32 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +150 (Underdog)

Since being cut by the UFC back in 2018, Moreno never looked back. He secured the LFA flyweight championship, earning a return to the UFC. He’s then gone 4-0-2 since. He’s secured big wins over flyweight contenders Kai Kara-France (#6 CC, #6 UFC) and Brandon Royval (NR CC, #5 UFC). His most recent was his biggest to date, submitting Figueiredo and claiming the UFC flyweight championship. Moreno wasn’t given much of a shot in either fight with Figueiredo, but fought to a draw in their first bout (a fight of the year contender) and then absolutely dominated the most recent contest. Underrate him at your own peril.

Figueiredo (#1 CC, #1 UFC), on the other hand, will look to reclaim the title that was once his and resume his run of dominance atop that division. Prior to Moreno, the only opponent who looked capable of stopping Figueiredo was the scale. He is a big flyweight and has had trouble making weight in the past. However, he was on the scale for this fight early, having no issues making the weight. If he can put it all together, his combination of size, speed, and power make him a threat to anyone in this division. His finishing rate is unreal for a flyweight, with 17 finishes over 20 career wins.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Moreno is finally getting the recognition he deserves. However, Figueiredo is one of only a couple of fighters who are rated higher than the current champion in their division by the CC rating. On paper, this makes sense. Figueiredo is a finisher and his run of dominance cannot be so easily forgotten. Now that he’s conquered the scale, feel confident picking him to reclaim his belt, potentially setting up a 4th showdown with Moreno.

Editor’s Pick: Figueiredo

[C] Francis Ngannou vs. [IC] Ciryl Gane (Men’s Heavyweight Championship)

Francis Ngannou

• Record: 16-3-0
• Division Ranking: 2/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +130 (Underdog)

Ciryl Gane

• Record: 10-0-0
• Division Ranking: 4/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -155 (Favorite)

The UFC has never seen anyone who hits like Ngannou. One punch is all the champ ever needs to finish a fight. This is a lesson that some of the best and brightest the UFC has ever had to offer have learned the hard way. Most recently, that included the heavyweight GOAT Stipe Miocic (#1 CC, #2 UFC). In 16 career wins, Ngannou has posted 16 career finishes. In turn, he has never been finished himself, with his three losses all being by decision. The one drawback this may indicate is that Ngannou fades the longer a fight goes. With a tactical fighter like Gane, this may spell trouble if he can get past round 2.

To complement Ngannou’s power, Gane is perhaps the most technically sound heavyweight fighter ever. Commentator’s often describe him as having the mobility of a middleweight. Gane has a surprisingly strong submission game for a heavyweight as well. If he can overcome the ten pound size disadvantage he’ll have and get the fight to the ground, he’s more dangerous than most anyone. No one has ever defeated Gane in the cage and, frankly, no one’s gotten close. And some of the best have tried. That said, there is no one with Ngannou’s combination of power and speed. This will be his biggest test to date.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Ngannou answered the call when many believed he’d be outwrestled by Miocic his last time out and that Miocic’s technicality would be a problem for him. Ngannous silenced the doubters with a vicious KO. While Gane is definitely quicker than Miocic on his feet, he will eventually have to exchange. As Daniel Cormier says, “When you enter the fire with Ngannou, you go to sleep.” The only factor affecting the champ might be that he’s focused on a contract dispute with the UFC and a desire to box the likes of Tyson Fury. Aside from that, it’s a travesty the oddsmakers have the undisputed champ as an underdog behind the interim champ.

Editor’s Pick: Ngannou