The UFC 270 prelim card features four fights, with two taking place in the bantamweight division. In the four fights, we will also see the UFC debuts of five additional fighters. All win probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

*UPDATE: As of the morning of Friday, January 21st, Ilia Topuria has dropped out of his bout against Charles Jourdain due to weight cutting issues. The bout has been cancelled.*

*UPDATE: Due to the cancellation of the bout between Rodolfo Vieira and Wellington Turman, the bout between Michael Morales and Trevin Giles has been moved to the main card (previews found HERE).*

Matt Frevola vs. Genaro Valdez (Men’s Lightweight)

Matt Frevola

• Record: 8-3-1
• Division Ranking: 81/85 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -190 (Favorite)

Genaro Valdez

• Record: 10-0-0
• Division Ranking: 56/85 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +160 (Underdog)

The year 2021 was not kind to Frevola. After over one year off, he was riding a two fight win streak. He then met up with dangerous rising star Arman Tsarukyan (#15 CC, #13 UFC). Frevola would lose by decision, hurting a little more because Tsarukyan failed to make weight for the fight. Five months later, Frevola was victim to the fastest KO in lightweight history, being finished in eight seconds by UFC newcomer Terrance McKinney. Frevola will hope to avoid giving this next newcomer the same warm welcome.

Valdez comes to the UFC after posting a dominant win on Dana White’s Contender Series in October. He sports a perfect 10-0 record over his career. Every single one of those wins has come by finish, with seven KOs and three submissions. His ground game is strong, with a sizable number of his KO wins coming via ground and pound. Valdez is certainly an exciting prospect from Mexico, riding the coattails of his countrymen, the flyweight champion Brandon Moreno.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: It is very tough to win in your UFC debut. What might be even more difficult would be to surrender two consecutive fights to debut fighters. That is the fate Frevola is staring down right now. This is Frevola’s third straight appearance at a numbered event. Experience has to be taken into consideration, despite his 2-3-1 UFC record. If you’re inclined to go against the forecast, this might be the fight to do it.

Editor’s Pick: Frevola

Tony Gravely vs. Saimon Oliveira (Men’s Bantamweight)

Tony Gravely

• Record: 21-7-0
• Division Ranking: 30/80 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -240 (Favorite)

Saimon Oliveira

• Record: 18-3-0
• Division Ranking: 40/80 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +200 (Underdog)

Gravely is a disappointing 2-2 in his UFC career, with the most recent defeat coming in September against Nate Maness. However, Gravely has a long championship resume to his name. He was bantamweight champion in four different promotions before finally getting the call to Dana White’s Contender Series and ultimately the UFC. Gravely also has 12 finishes to his name in his pro career.

Oliveira is another Contender Series product looking to make a name in the UFC. He hasn’t lost a pro fight since March of 2018, amassing an 18-3 career record. Where most of Gravely’s finishes are knockouts, Oliveira is a submission artist, having ended 11 fights in that fashion. He also has five KOs to his name for good measure.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Gravely has a wealth of high level experience. While he’s underperformed in the UFC, he certainly has the talent to knock off a UFC newcomer who does not have the pedigree he has. Don’t doubt the veteran in this one.

Editor’s Pick: Gravely

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Pete Rodriguez (Men’s Welterweight)

Jack Della Maddalena

• Record: 10-2-0
• Division Ranking: 44/78 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -360 (Favorite)

Pete Rodriguez

• Record: 4-0-0
• Division Ranking: 67/78 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: +280 (Underdog

The Australian Della Maddalena comes in as quite the prospect for this UFC welterweight division. He is the former Eternal MMA welterweight champion and holds a 10-2 professional MMA record. He displayed grit in a tough battle on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) that earned him a UFC contract. Given that he lost his first two pro bouts, Della Maddalena is on a ten fight win streak and has not lost since May of 2016. Of his ten wins, a whopping eight have been by knockout, one by submission, and only one decision win (his DWCS appearance).

Rodriguez must be something special to earn a spot in the UFC at age 25 after only four pro fights. It’s hard to argue as he’s been perfect since going pro. He’s 4-0 with four knockouts. It’s tough to do better than that. It will be interesting to see how he deals with someone like Della Maddalena. The Australian has 12 fights in his career. Rodriguez’s four career opponents had 12 fights of experience combined. This will be his first test against anything resembling seasoned competition.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: It’s tough to know what to make of Rodriguez, given his lack of experience and that of his opponents thus far. The CC forecast and the oddsmakers all lean heavily on the Australian. There’s little reason to overthink this one.

Editor’s Pick: Della Maddalena

[11] Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry (Men’s Bantamweight)

Raoni Barcelos

• Record: 16-2-0
• Division Ranking: 13/80 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: -500 (Favorite)

Victor Henry

• Record: 21-5-0
• Division Ranking: 21/80 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: +380 (Underdog)

Raoni Barcelos (#11 CC, NR UFC) is one of the most proficient strikers in the bantamweight division today. He is looking to turn around now after his first UFC loss in June of last year against Dagestani bantamweight Timur Valiev by majority decision. It was his first loss overall since 2014. Barcelos (pictured above left) has never won a fight by decision, boasting a perfect 100 percent finish rate in his career. He’s kept his place in the CC rankings and now wants to earn one in the official UFC rankings.

Henry (pictured above right) may be making his debut, but that does not mean he’s inexperienced. He’s won a number of titles all across the world in his pro career leading up to his first appearance in the UFC. Dana White singled him out as one of his fighters to watch for this event. Henry is dangerous on the feet and on the ground, posting eight submissions and six knockouts over his career. Against a standup artist like Barcelos, he may look to take this to the ground early.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Barcelos is a tough assignment for a debut fighter, even one with the experience Henry has. There’s a reason the oddsmakers are making it so prohibitive to bet on Barcelos. He is just too extremely talented. Don’t overthink this.

Editor’s Pick: Barcelos

Photo Credit: MMA Junkie