The first fight night of 2022 is in the books. Calvin Kattar made a statement in the featherweight division and a number of other fighters set the tone for their 2022 campaigns. A couple of fights also lent some clarity to the title pictures in both the men’s and women’s flyweight divisions.

Through the ten fights on the UFC Vegas 46 card, the Cage Calculus forecast went 6-4, bringing its overall record since its inception to 109-59-2. All forecast projections are based on a fighter’s CC rating. You can find out how those ratings are generated HERE. You can view the projections for last week’s fights HERE and HERE. The CC Editor’s Picks were also 6-4 and the odd-on favorites according to Vegas were 7-3.

2022 Overall Standings

• Cage Calculus Forecast: 6-4
• Cage Calculus Editor Picks: 6-4
• Las Vegas Oddsmakers: 7-3

Without further ado, here’s what we learned from UFC Vegas 46:

Calvin Kattar is an Elite Featherweight

Everyone wrote Kattar (#4 CC, #5 UFC) off after he was dominated last year in his bout with top contender Max Holloway (#1 CC, #1 UFC). However, Kattar turned in a dominant performance and delivered Giga Chikadze (#13 CC, #7 UFC) his first loss in the UFC octagon. Kattar utilized superior striking and vicious elbows to do big damage to the face of Chikadze (pictured above).

Over the last three years, only Holloway and Zabit Magomedsharipov (#5 CC, NR UFC) have been able to defeat Kattar. Magomedsharipov was a top 5 UFC featherweight before the UFC removed him from the rankings pool due to injury (he remains in the Cage Calculus rankings pool). With Max Holloway battling injury, the race to see who will get the next title shot after “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung (#7 CC, #4 UFC) could very well be wide open. Kattar certainly made his case crystal clear. Others are clamoring for a matchup between Kattar and recent title challenger Brian Ortega (#2 CC, #2 UFC). We wouldn’t complain about either scenario.

Despite the Defeat, Giga Chikadze is Underrated

Yes, Chikadze was dominated despite being a 2-to-1 betting favorite according to the oddsmakers. And, yes, both the CC forecast and CC editor both took Kattar before the fight. However, he proved that he belonged in a top 5 matchup. If the Cage Calculus forecast had eyes, it might adjust to make Chikadze ranked slightly higher than 13th in the featherweight division. He maintained solid striking throughout the fight and looked capable of finishing it at any point, despite the damage. He joins Yair Rodriguez (#12 CC, #3 UFC) in the hard luck underrated club in this division. A fight between the two would make a lot of sense, given both are coming off of top 5 losses.

We’re Still Not Sold on Brandon Royval

Royval (NR CC, #5 UFC) snapped his losing streak with a split decision victory against Rogerio Bontorin (#14 CC, #7 UFC). However, it was still not enough to vault the flyweight prospect into the top 15 in the CC forecast’s rankings of UFC flyweights. He definitely did enough to improve his stock in the UFC, with bosses saying Royval will be the backup fighter for next week’s flyweight title fight should challenger Deiveson Figueiredo (#1 CC, #1 UFC) be unable to make weight. However, Royval is still only 3-2 in the UFC, being finished twice and with his most recent win being a very close split decision. The forecast isn’t ready to say he’d be a favorite against any ranked fighter right now. We honestly can’t say we blame the numbers at this point. Should something go wrong with Figueiredo (or the champ Moreno), he may get a chance to prove us all wrong.

The UFC Should Re-Sign Katlyn Chookagian

Chookagian (#3 CC, #2 UFC) has long been a gatekeeper to the flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko. With the lone exception of Jessica Andrade (#1 CC, #1 UFC), no one has been able to successfully storm that gate since 2018. Chookagian is one of only a handful of women who’ve eclipsed a 1700 CC rating, and she now sits at #7 in the CC women’s overall rankings (#10 in the UFC’s female pound-for-pound rankings). While not displaying devastating finishing power, Chookagian is very technically sound and will be a tough out for anyone. With the flyweight division so full of up-and-coming talent, the UFC should absolutely keep a veteran like Chookagian on the roster to test the new prospects and potentially earn her way to another title shot.

Making Your Debut Is Hard, Fighting on Short Notice Is Harder

UFC Vegas 46 saw three fighters make their UFC debuts and two fighters come in to fight on short notice. Only one of those fighters was able to win (Viecheslav Borschev turned in a performance of the night KO). This is one thing to consider when viewing projections. The forecast sees a fighter’s resume, but not the circumstances of fight week. Something to inform your read of the projections is how tough it is to make your debut or to come in and fight on short notice (part of the reason we’ve added editor’s picks to our previews). We look forward to seeing each of these five their next time out to further assess their place in the ranks.

Photo Credit: MMA Junkie