After a four-week hiatus, the UFC is finally back this weekend for UFC Vegas 46. With that, so are the Cage Calculus previews. The format will be slightly different. As we mention in almost every preview, the win probability generated by the Cage Calculus model is not an absolute predictor of who will win the fight, but indicates the expected win probabilities for fighters with the same resume.

So, if the algorithm says Fighter X has a 60 percent chance of beating Fighter Y, it is really saying that if there were 100 fights between a fighter with the same record as Fighter X (including method of victory and quality of opponent) and a fighter with the same record as Fighter Y, the first fighter would be expected to win 60 of those. But, the algorithm is not watching fights, nor does it know any of the backstories.

So, Cage Calculus is incorporating a “Subjective Spin on Objective Reality” into its previews. We’ll still give you the raw CC projection, but add subjective context to see what else is in play and why a given fighter might be being overestimated or underestimated by the algorithm. We will also include the betting odds made by the oddsmakers in Vegas to see who the betting markets believe will win and how they compare the CC win probabilities.

You can view the projections for the prelim card HERE.

Without further ado, the UFC Vegas 46 main card features six fights, capped by a high stakes showdown between top featherweight contenders, Calvin Kattar and Giga Chikadze. All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

Joanderson Brito vs. Bill Algeo (Men’s Featherweight)

Joanderson Brito

• Division Ranking: 36/75 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: -135 (Favorite)

Bill Algeo

• Division Ranking: 42/75 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: +115 (Underdog)

Brito comes into his UFC debut with 15 pro fights already under his belt at the age of 26. He’s won featherweight titles in both the Araca and Fusion FC promotions. Now, he’s ready to take on a bigger challenge with the UFC. The Brazilian’s last professional loss came in December of 2015. He’s won 11 straight since, with nine of those coming by way of finish. It’s this stretch that’s made him one of the hottest prospects in Brazil.

He’ll face Algeo in his debut. Algeo is 1-2 in his three-fight UFC career (oddly enough, he is undefeated against fighters not named ‘Ricardo’). Each of his three fights ended in a decision, with losses against Ricardo Lamas and Ricardo Ramos, while scoring a victory over Spike Carlyle. Algeo’s CC Rating is also boosted by his pre-UFC record, where he was the Ring of Combat featherweight champion, a belt he defended multiple times.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: It’s tough to know what to make of Brito yet. His record speaks for itself, but winning regionally in Brazil doesn’t necessarily translate to success in the UFC, especially early on. Algeo also came into the UFC with a championship resume and has fallen flat. The algorithm has this one as a tight battle for a reason. Lean towards the newcomer, but not by much.

Editor’s Pick: Brito

Dakota Bush vs. Viacheslav Borschev (Men’s Lightweight)

Dakota Bush

• Division Ranking: 79/85 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: +160 (Underdog)

Viacheslav Borschev

• Division Ranking: 77/85 lightweights
• Vegas Odds: -190 (Favorite)

Bush lost his UFC debut last year to Austin Hubbard, after having a pretty successful four-year run in LFA. Bush came into that fight as a decent underdog against the veteran Hubbard. He was slated to be so again in September, before his bout with Rong Zhu was scuttled. The 27 year-old has only registered 11 pro fights, posting an 8-3 record over that time. He has finishes in 75 percent of his wins, mostly by submission.

Borschev is making his UFC debut, but will be the older fighter by three years. Borschev will be slightly behind the ball, having only started his pro MMA career at the age of 27. He’s 5-1 in the 6 pro fights he’s had up to this point (with the lone defeat being a split decision). He has dazzled with his kickboxing style, registering some impressive knockouts, none more so than his win on Dana White’s Contender Series three months ago, which earned him this shot.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Borschev showed some holes in his defense on his DWCS appearance, but powered through it, delivering some heavy hits with knockout power. Bush is more of a grappler, so we could potentially see if Borschev has holes in his ground game. That said, Borschev has power and style Bush may not have seen before. Once again, trust the forecast and go with the newcomer.

Editor’s Pick: Borschev

[3] Katlyn Chookagian vs. [6] Jennifer Maia (Women’s Flyweight)

Katlyn Chookagian

• Division Ranking: 4/42 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -180 (Favorite)

Jennifer Maia

• Division Ranking: 7/42 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +155 (Underdog)

After Colby Covington’s UFC 268 defeat to Kamaru Usman, Dana White said that if Usman didn’t exist, Covington would be champ and could dominate the division. This may very well be the case for Chookagian (#3 CC, #2 UFC) as it relates to current flyweight champ, Valentina Shevchenko. It has taken the absolute best to beat Chookagian in the octagon. In the last three years, the only flyweights to beat her are Shevchenko and the #1 contender, Jessica Andrade (#1 CC, #1 UFC). Chookagian is one of only a handful of women to ever have eclipsed a CC rating of 1700. She doesn’t often finish her fights, but has an excellent ability to keep opponents at distance with her length. In a sign she’s also working on her grappling, she appeared in a grappling-only match with fellow flyweight Gillian Robertson (#11 CC, NR UFC) in August. Chookagian is looking to show she deserves a rematch with the champ in a very crowded, talented flyweight division.

Maia (#6 CC, #4 UFC) is another former victim of the champion Shevchenko. Maia was also defeated by Chookagian when the two faced off against each other at UFC 244. Maia will look to utilize her advantage grappling. Where Chookagian has zero submission wins in her career, Maia has registered six. Maia got back in the win column with a clear decision win over Jessica Eye (NR CC, #9 UFC) at UFC 264 in July. Maia is yet another flyweight looking to stake a claim to the next title shot. Avenging her previous loss over Chookagian would demonstrate clear evolution in her game.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: It has taken some very dominant fighters to beat Chookagian. Maia is certainly a tough competitor, however, nothing that has happened in the two years since these two last fought indicates this one will go differently.

Editor’s Pick: Chookagian

Brandon Royval vs. [11] Rogerio Bontorin (Men’s Flyweight)

Brandon Royval

• Division Ranking: 21/32 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: -170 (Favorite)

Rogerio Bontorin

• Division Ranking: 21/32 flyweights
• Vegas Odds: +145 (Underdog)

Royval (NR CC, #5 UFC) has been thrown into the fire as of late. In 2020, he fought three times, dispatching former title challenger Tim Elliott and top contender Kai Kara-France (#6 CC, #6 UFC) before being stopped by future and current champion Brandon Moreno. Royval then took time to recover from his dislocated shoulder before facing off against Alexandre Pantoja (#2 CC, #3 UFC). Royval would be defeated again, bringing his UFC record to 2-2. Royval has faced an insanely strong schedule thus far in the UFC. Over the course of his career, he’s logged 12 wins, with eight being by submission and three by knockout.

Bontorin (#11 CC, #7 UFC) will look to be the latest contender to knock off Royval. He’s coming off a win over Matt Schnell (NR CC, #9 UFC) at UFC 262, ending his streak of two losses at the hands of Kara-France and former title challenger Ray Borg. Bontorin, like Royval, is a submission artist, with 11 of his 17 career wins being by submission.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Royval is being dragged down in the CC Ratings by the fact he’s faced almost nothing but top 5 talent since he came into the promotion. He never got a chance to inflate his rating before stepping up. He may be overrated by the UFC, ranking him at #5, but he’s certainly underrated as far as the forecast is concerned. This might be a time to buck the algorithm and go with Royval to revert to the mean.

Editor’s Pick: Royval

Chase Sherman vs. Jake Collier (Men’s Heavyweight)

Chase Sherman

• Division Ranking: 38/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: +115 (Underdog)

Jake Collier

• Division Ranking: 34/39 heavyweights
• Vegas Odds: -135 (Favorite)

Sherman is coming off of two straight losses at the hands of Andrei Arlovski (#14 CC, NR UFC) and Parker Porter. His lone UFC win came in his debut against Ike Villanueva, who has since dropped down to light heavyweight (Villanueva is also the lowest rated fighter in the UFC, according to the CC ratings). After five months off, Sherman will try and prove to the UFC top brass that he deserves a place in the promotion.

Collier has alternated wins and losses since joining the UFC in 2014. He began as a middleweight before stepping up to light heavweight and eventually taking three years off between 2017 and 2020 to make the move up to heavyweight. He’s 1-2 since stepping up, with the lone win being against the since-retired Gian Villante. Despite the mediocre record, Collier is one of only a handful of fighters to score wins in three separate weight classes.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This was an odd choice to make the co-main event of the evening, especially when Chookagian-Maia 2 was an option. This will be a fight between two men trying to stay out of the heavyweight basement. Collier might have a little more quickness, but Sherman is a natural heavyweight so he’ll more than likely have the size advantage. With everything else being about equal, there’s not enough reason to doubt the forecast.

Editor’s Pick: Collier

[7] Calvin Kattar vs. [12] Giga Chikadze (Men’s Featherweight)

Calvin Kattar

• Division Ranking: 8/75 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: +200 (Underdog)

Giga Chikadze

• Division Ranking: 13/75 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: -240 (Favorite)

Kattar (#7 CC, #5 UFC) is coming off a performance he’d like to forget, but that very few ever will. He was the victim of a record number of strikes landed (445) at the hands of Max Holloway (#1 CC, #1 UFC). The only positive Kattar can take away is that he survived to the end of the full five rounds. Kattar is 6-3 in nine UFC bouts and an impressive 22-5 for his whole career. Lately, only Holloway and Zabit Magomedsharipov (#4 CC, NR UFC) have been able to best him. Kattar has not been finished since May of 2008.

The Georgian Chikadze (#12 CC, #7 UFC) is perhaps the hottest fighter in the UFC featherweight division, if not the entire UFC. He is a perfect 7-0 since joining the UFC. His latest win was a stunning KO of veteran Edson Barboza (#10 CC, #10 UFC). Chikadze is known for his deadly accurate kicks and standup prowess. He’s already chomping at the bit to get a shot at the champion Volkanovski. With a win here, it’ll be hard to say no.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Everyone seems to be overlooking Kattar in this fight. Even Chikadze is already calling for a title shot before even stepping into the octagon for this one. However, Kattar has utilized a very boxing-heavy approach, which might allow him to mitigate Chikadze’s standup game. As talented as Chikadze is, don’t fall asleep on the veteran for the bright new prospect. Buck the oddsmakers, trust the forecast, and pick Kattar!

Editor’s Pick: Kattar

Photo Credit: UFC