After a four-week hiatus, the UFC is finally back this weekend for UFC Vegas 46. With that, so are the Cage Calculus previews. The format will be slightly different. As we mention in almost every preview, the win probability generated by the Cage Calculus model is not an absolute predictor of who will win the fight, but indicates the expected win probabilities for fighters with the same resume.

So, if the algorithm says Fighter X has a 60 percent chance of beating Fighter Y, it is really saying that if there were 100 fights between a fighter with the same record as Fighter X (including method of victory and quality of opponent) and a fighter with the same record as Fighter Y, the first fighter would be expected to win 60 of those. But, the algorithm is not watching fights, nor does it know any of the backstories.

So, Cage Calculus is incorporating a “Subjective Spin on Objective Reality” into its previews. We’ll still give you the raw CC projection, but add subjective context to see what else is in play and why a given fighter might be being overestimated or underestimated by the algorithm. We will also include the betting odds made by the oddsmakers in Vegas to see who the betting markets believe will win and how they compare the CC win probabilities.

Without further ado, the UFC Vegas 46 prelim card features four fights, two of which will be contended at 145 pounds, including the UFC debut of Joseph Holmes. All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

Brian Kelleher vs. Kevin Croom (Men’s Featherweight)

Brian Kelleher

• Division Ranking: 31/78 bantamweights
• Vegas Odds: TBD

Kevin Croom

• Division Ranking: 72/75 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: TBD

This fight is being fought on very short notice. Kelleher’s original opponent, Saidyokub Kakhramonov dropped out late Wednesday and was replaced by the featherweight Croom at the last minute. This will be Kelleher’s thirteenth fight inside the UFC octagon. Kelleher has assembled a 7-5 record over the 12 fights he’s been in thus far, including his last one in August against Domingo Pilarte. Just under a year ago, Kelleher was fighting Ricky Simon (#8 CC, #13 UFC) at UFC 258. He was defeated soundly, but Kelleher no doubt wants to fight his way back to upper tier opponents. Adding a 19th finish to his career total would be a good way to do it.

Croom, on the other hand, is looking to climb out of the basement of the featherweight division. He dropped a clear decision to Alex Caceres (NR CC, #15 UFC) in his first official result. Croom’s debut saw him pull off an upset over Roosevelt Roberts, but was later overturned for a failed drug test. Croom can overcome those unfortunate results to get his first UFC win here against the odds. Croom has ten submission wins and six knockouts in his career. He has the skillset to do it.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Kelleher has the experience, and the training to win this fight. Short notice fighters typically don’t have much success in the UFC, especially when they have as little time as Croom will. When he steps into the octagon on Saturday, he’ll have had only two days of training, and much of that will be cutting weight down to the 146 pound limit. Size may be the only wild card to help Croom, as he’ll be the bigger man. Kelleher agreed to go up to featherweight to stay on the card. That being said, there’s no reason to doubt the CC model on this one.

Editor’s Pick: Kelleher

TJ Brown vs. Charles Rosa (Men’s Featherweight)

TJ Brown

• Division Ranking: 73/75 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: -275 (Favorite)

Charles Rosa

• Division Ranking: 56/75 featherweights
• Vegas Odds: +235 (Underdog)

Yet another fight happening on short notice. After Gabriel Benitez dropped out earlier this week, Rosa steps in and will fight with less than a week of preparation. This gives Brown a prime opportunity to earn his second straight win. He defeated Kai Kamaka III in May by split decision to earn his first UFC victory after dropping his first two bouts. In 15 pro wins, Brown has nine submission wins and four knockouts to just two decisions. By the same token, in his eight pro defeats, he’s been finished six times.

Rosa no doubt wants to avenge his loss in October to Damon Jackson. Astonishingly, in just over seven years in the UFC, Rosa has never won or lost more than one fight in a row. He can keep that crazy streak going with a win. Rosa has very good ground game, having won eight fights by submission, while having never been submitted himself. That’s where he can steal a short notice win if he’s to have a chance.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Once again, it is very difficult to win on short notice. On paper, everything points Rosa’s direction. He has more experience, he’s a much better grappler, and he has fought much higher quality opponents. However, the algorithm doesn’t know that Rosa didn’t know he’d be fighting until just a few days before fight night. That changes things. He has a path to victory, so he may be a good wager, given the favorable odds he’ll get at the betting counter, but maybe not if you want bragging rights.

Editor’s Pick: Brown

Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Court McGee (Men’s Welterweight)

Ramiz Brahimaj

• Division Ranking: 63/74 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -110 (Even)

Court McGee

• Division Ranking: 51/74 welterweights
• Vegas Odds: -110 (Even)

Brahimaj earned his first UFC victory in August against Sasha Palatnikov via a first round submission. That win came nine months after he was rudely welcomed to the UFC by Max Griffin, in a defeat where he very literally nearly lost his ear. Brahimaj is a wizard in the ground game. He is 9-3 in his professional MMA career. Every one of those nine wins have come by submission.

On the other hand, you have McGee (pictured above) who will make the walk for his 31st professional fight (his 19th with the UFC). McGee has never once been submitted in his professional career. In his lone octagon appearance in 2021, he scored a win over Claudio Silva, his first win since 2018. The 37 year-old McGee is on a bit of a downslope, having lost three of his last four and five of his last seven.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: The CC forecast loves experience and McGee has oodles. He’s also been locked in the cage with some of the best the UFC has to offer, including Robert Whittaker, Santiago Ponzinibbio, Sean Strickland, and Sean Brady (of those four, McGee only defeated Whittaker). However, he is in a bit of a slump as of late. Brahimaj does not need to submit him to win. He just needs to be able to hold down the older fighter and tire him out for 15 minutes to score a decision win.

Editor’s Pick: Brahimaj

Jamie Pickett vs. Joseph Holmes (Men’s Middleweight)

Jamie Pickett

• Division Ranking: 65/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: +130 (Underdog)

Joseph Holmes

• Division Ranking: 59/67 middleweights
• Vegas Odds: -150 (Favorite)

Pickett had a tough start to his UFC career with two straight losses to Tafon Nchukwi and Jordan Wright. The former abandoned the middleweight division altogether to go fight at light heavyweight. The latter is just barely inside the top 50 in the middleweight division. His first UFC victory came against Laureano Staropoli in October. Staropoli has since been cut from the UFC. Pickett is trying to prove he belongs in the UFC and stringing together some wins is going to be needed to do it.

Holmes makes his UFC debut Saturday after compiling a 7-1 record in other promotions prior. All seven of his wins have come by way of finish (five submissions and two KOs). Holmes has also displayed standup skills, winning his lone appearance in a Muay Thai specific bout. Holmes is only 26 and will look to prove himself in the UFC early.

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Holmes is still a relative unknown. He only has eight fights in his career and none of those opponents have appeared in the UFC. Pickett has experience, but has struggled while facing subpar competition. With all else being equal, look to the forecast and feel somewhat comfortable picking the newcomer to win his debut.

Editor’s Pick: Holmes

Photo Credit: MMA Fighting