The final fight card of 2021 is in the books. We’ll be left to stew over the impact into the new year. We saw new contenders emerge and an old one hold the line. And, as always, there was at least one questionable judge’s scorecard that made everyone scratch their head. Good, bad, and ugly, there are always lessons to be learned.

Through the 13 fights, the Cage Calculus forecast favorites went 11-2, bringing the forecast favorites to an overall 103-55-2 record since the site’s inception. A friendly reminder that the projections indicate win probabilities and are not absolute predictions. You can look back at the previews for UFC 268 here, here, and here.

Without further ado, here are just some of the things we learned at UFC Vegas 45:

One Dimension is All Derrick Lewis Needs

Lewis (#2 CC, #3 UFC) has been criticized as a “one dimensional fighter” in the past, including by his opponent coming into this bout. So the story goes, Lewis sits back and waits for that one knockout blow and has few other skills to speak of. Honestly, that may be true. Yet, it’s carried him to the most knockouts in UFC history, with this latest one being his 13th in the promotion. When you have power like Lewis, you don’t need much else.

The question becomes, “What’s next?” That is a little trickier now. Lewis teased a desire to get a title shot, but also said he has no desire to fight in a five-round bout, which is the standard length for title fights. He would also have to justify another title shot given how badly he was dominated when he fought for the interim title against Ciryl Gane. When Gane and the champion Francis Ngannou fight in January, the picture becomes a little clearer. Lewis has beaten Ngannou in the past, so if the champ holds on, Lewis will have a better case. Though, he may have to get in line behind former champ Stipe Miocic (#1 CC, #2 UFC). Lewis’ win makes it impossible to ignore him at the top of this division.

It’s Time to Stop Sleeping on Belal Muhammad

Muhammad (#7 CC, #5 UFC) is not the most exciting fighter on the face of the planet. That much is true. However, he just dominated Stephen Thompson (NR CC, #7 UFC), one of the most dangerous strikers in the UFC. Muhammad’s wrestling was just too much for Thompson. Muhammad is now 6-0 in his last seven octagon appearances (with one no contest in between). Naturally, he called for a shot at the title for his next fight. Barring that, he said, he wants a shot at Leon Edwards (#3 CC, #3 UFC).

Muhammad and Edwards shared the octagon in March. The fight was called a no contest early after Edwards delivered a brutal eye poke that rendered Muhammad unable to continue. Edwards is riding an unbeaten streak himself, going 9-0 in his last ten (with the tenth being the no contest with Muhammad). With champion Kamaru Usman expressing a desire to take a little more time between title defenses, a rematch between Muhammad and Edwards would make sense to see who’s next for the title. Although, a wild card possibility for Muhammad is rising prospect Khamzat Chimaev (NR CC, #11 UFC). Both fighters called each other out on Twitter recently, expressing interest in a bout soon.

Angela Hill Can’t Catch a Break

Hill (NR CC, #12 UFC) is 1-4 in her last five fights. Three of those four losses, however, have come by split decision. All three were very close fights. Hill could easily be a lot higher in the rankings if two or three of them had gone her way (and there’s a good argument to be made that they should have). In this most recent bout, Hill was dropped early by Amanda Lemos (#4 CC, #10 UFC). Hill then dominated the second round. This led to a very close third round. Anyone could be forgiven for scoring round three either way, but one judge inexplicably scored the fight 30-27 Lemos. Hill is having a tough time winning over the judges and it’s derailing her ability to get closer to the top of the strawweight division.

Two New Contenders Emerge on the Horizon

Both Mateusz Gamrot (#7 CC, #12 UFC) and Ricky Simon (#8 CC, #13 UFC) punched their tickets for bigger and better things in the new year. Gamrot got a finish win for the third time in a row and now sits at 20-1 in his career. He said post-fight he is targeting a title shot in 2023. It’s hard to think of someone outside the top five lightweights who could definitively give Gamrot issues. He will be dangerous at 115 pounds for a while.

Similarly, Simon earned his way into the bantamweight top 15 with an impressive KO win. He called out Sean O’Malley (#10 CC, #12 UFC) for his next fight. That matchup makes a lot of sense for both fighters if O’Malley wants it. Simon is now winner of four straight and is very strong for this division. He too will be a problem very soon if he can keep winning.

Don’t Count Out the Veterans

Cub Swanson and Gerald Meerschaert deliver impressive wins as well. Swanson displayed striking on another level, reminiscent of early in his career. He dispatched Darren Elkins in the first round and made it look easy. His speed is still a force to be reckoned with. Meerschaert extended his middleweight record by getting his eighth UFC submission win. That moves him to 3-0 in 2021 with three submissions. That is a huge step up for a fighter who finished 2020 by being KO’d in the first round twice. Both veterans will head into yet another year of their careers on a high note.

Correct Us if You’ve Heard This Before… Another Flyweight Contender Emerges

Cage Calculus is starting to sound like a broken record after all these fight cards. There are so many exciting young prospects in the women’s flyweight division who all have something to offer. In just a couple years time, this could very well be the most talented, competitive division in the UFC. Melissa Gatto (#14 CC, NR UFC) just added her name to that list. She remained undefeated with a brutal TKO of veteran Sijara Eubanks. Gatto delivered a liver kick that crumbled the helpless Eubanks. Gatto, for her part, remains undefeated and will likely get a higher octane matchup her next time out.

Raquel Pennington is Not Going Away

After her win at UFC 205, Pennington (#4 CC, #7 UFC) and her career seemed to stumble off a cliff. She took a year-and-a-half off and then proceeded to lose three of her next four fights. For a veteran in a division with one of the most dominant champions the sport had ever seen, it seemed like there was no path forward for Pennington. Now, however, Pennington has strung together three straight wins, with this last one being a submission win against Macy Chiasson (#11 CC, #10 UFC), who came in heavy to the fight. And, now the bantamweight belt seems as accessible as it ever has. Pennington picked a great time for a career renaissance and she doesn’t appear to be going away any time soon.

Photo Credit: MMA Mania