The main fight card for UFC Vegas 45 features a six fight card. The main card is headlined by top heavyweight contenders Derrick Lewis and Chris Daukaus. All projections are based off a fighter’s CC rating and their place in the CC rankings.

You can view the forecasts for the prelim card here and here.

Cub Swanson vs. [14] Darren Elkins (Men’s Featherweight)

Cub Swanson

• CC Rating: 1658.2
• Division Ranking: 26th out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 204th out of 499 men

Darren Elkins

• CC Rating: 1721.8
• Division Ranking: 15th out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 109th out of 499 men

Swanson has been doing this a long time. This bout will be his 21st in just over ten years with the UFC. Swanson’s been in there with the best of the best. In 2012 and 2013, Swanson defeated current lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and current lightweight #1 contender Dustin Poirier in consecutive bouts. Swanson has been very streaky in his career, which prevented him from ever realizing a featherweight title shot. He’s coming off a loss against contender Giga Chikadze (#12 CC, #8 UFC), so he’ll be hoping to end his losing streak at one. While this may be one of the last times we see Swanson in the octagon, he has the skills to beat anyone at any given time.

Elkins (#14 CC, NR UFC) is another veteran of the game looking to prove he’s still got plenty left in the tank. He’s doing quite a job of it too. Elkins is currently on a two-fight win streak, with both wins coming by way of a finish. His most recent against Darrick Minner earned him a performance of the night bonus. From 2015 to 2018, Elkins strung together six straight wins. That was snapped when he faced off against the man who’d become the current champion, Alexander Volkanovski. That precipitated a four-fight losing streak that would see him drop out of contention. He’s hoping his two recent finishes indicate he’s not done with this division yet. Swanson would be his toughest test in a while.

Elkins’ recent turnaround and better record overall give him the edge in this battle of veterans.

CC Projection: Darren Elkins (59.1%)

[13] Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. [8] Mateusz Gamrot (Men’s Lightweight)

Carlos Diego Ferreira

• CC Rating: 1752.9
• Division Ranking: 14th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 74th out of 499 men

Mateusz Gamrot

• CC Rating: 1798.1
• Division Ranking: 9th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 41st out of 499 men

It has been a tough 2021 for Ferreira (#13 CC, #12 UFC). He began with a tight split decision loss to Beneil Dariush (#6 CC, #3 UFC). He would then go on to miss weight by a whopping four-and-a-half pounds for his bout against Gregor Gillespie (#9 CC, #10 UFC) and lose anyway. Those two losses were on the heels of a six-fight win streak that saw Ferreira rise to contention. Now, he’s at risk of falling out of the top 15 altogether. At age 36, he’s running out of time to string a good run together.

Gamrot (#8 CC, NR UFC) came into his UFC debut at a perfect 17-0 professional record. The hype was stalled in a narrow split decision loss to Guram Kutateladze. However, he’d turn it around quickly with a devastating KO of Scott Holtzman six months later. Just three months after that, he submitted UFC veteran Jeremy Stephens via kimura in just 65 seconds. The former Polish lightweight champion is looking to begin his rise in the UFC and this is his first crack at the rankings.

Gamrot’s career dominance outweighs Ferreira’s experience and he’ll come in as the favorite.

CC Projection: Mateusz Gamrot (56.5%)

Raphael Assuncao vs. [13] Ricky Simon (Men’s Bantamweight)

Raphael Assuncao

• CC Rating: 1687.4
• Division Ranking: 22nd out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 158th out of 499 men

Ricky Simon

• CC Rating: 1729.8
• Division Ranking: 15th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 99th out of 499 men

Assuncao (NR CC, #12 UFC) is making his first appearance back in the octagon after he was the victim of a highlight reel knockout at the hands of Cody Garbrandt (#7 CC-flyweight) in June of 2020. That loss marked the third straight for the longtime veteran. This may signal the final stretch of his career is upon him, as he had previously won ten of his last eleven, with the only loss being to the dangerous TJ Dillashaw (#1 CC, #2 UFC). He’ll look to defend his UFC ranking before potentially calling it a career.

Simon (#13 CC, NR UFC), on the other hand, is on a three-fight win streak. He’s making his return to the bantamweight division after a brief one-off at featherweight in February. This will likely be Simon’s second chance at making a contender run. In his first attempt in 2019, he was stopped by Urijah Faber and Rob Font (#4 CC, #5 UFC) in consecutive fights before taking a step down in competition. At 29, Simon has time to put it together. A win tonight would no doubt put him in the UFC top 15 with a higher matchup on the way.

Simon’s recent success and Assuncao’s recent struggles have the younger fighter coming out ahead in the forecast.

CC Projection: Ricky Simon (56.1%)

[5] Amanda Lemos vs. Angela Hill (Women’s Strawweight)

Amanda Lemos

• CC Rating: 1700.2
• Division Ranking: 6th out of 45 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 11th out of 117 women

Angela Hill

• CC Rating: 1542.3
• Division Ranking: 30th out of 45 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 84th out of 117 women

In a division full of dangerous talent, Lemos (#5 CC, #11 UFC) may just be the most dangerous of them all. After falling in her UFC debut, Lemos has not looked back. She’s won four straight, with three of those four being by first round finish. Lemos’ win against Mizuki Inoue in August of 2020 was the first and only time in her career she’s won a fight by decision. All of her other wins have been finishes (seven KOs, two submissions). Another couple wins could see Lemos competing for a title very soon.

Hill (NR CC, #12 UFC) takes this fight on short notice after Nina Ansaroff-Nunes (NR CC, #6 UFC) dropped out last month. Hill is badly in need of a win. She’s lost three of her last four. Two of those were tough split decision losses to fellow contenders Michelle Waterson (NR CC, #9 UFC) and the recently-retired Claudia Gadelha (#12 CC, NR UFC). At 36, in a crowded division, Hill needs to be perfect going forward if she wants to crack the top tier. A win on short notice against Lemos could be just what the doctor ordered.

Lemos’ recent dominance and finishing ability combined with Hill’s struggles make Lemos the prohibitive favorite.

CC Projection: Amanda Lemos (71.3%)

[12] Stephen Thompson vs. [7] Belal Muhammad (Men’s Welterweight)

Stephen Thompson

• CC Rating: 1769.4
• Division Ranking: 13th out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 55th out of 499 men

Belal Muhammad

• CC Rating: 1782.1
• Division Ranking: 8th out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 47th out of 499 men

Thompson (#12 CC, #5 UFC) is one of the most accomplished kickers in the game today. He was undefeated in his professional kickboxing career before turning to MMA. In his nearly ten-year UFC career, Thompson has come so close to reaching the pinnacle a number of times. At UFC 205, he fought to a draw against then-champion Tyron Woodley. He earned an immediate rematch and would lose a narrow majority decision. He says he will fight into his 50s if he has to to get another title shot. Coming off a loss to Gilbert Burns (#2 CC, #2 UFC) his last time out, he’ll need a win here to start that journey.

Muhammad (#7 CC, #10 UFC) is undefeated in his last six octagon appearance. He holds five wins, including one no contest against Leon Edwards (#3 CC, #3 UFC). His most recent performance against Demian Maia may be his most impressive. Against one of the most accomplished grapplers in the history of mixed martial arts, Muhammad was able to stop every single one of Maia’s takedown attempts. The Palestinian-American does not get a lot of looks for potential title challengers, but a win here would be his biggest to date and would vault him near the welterweight top five, if not right in the thick of it.

In a tight battle, Muhammad’s recent success gives him the thin edge. This fight will largely be determined by where it takes place. Thompson will have the advantage in a standup battle, whereas Muhammad is more comfortable on the ground.

CC Projection: Belal Muhammad (51.8%)

[2] Derrick Lewis vs. [10] Chris Daukaus (Men’s Heavyweight)

Derrick Lewis

• CC Rating: 1834.1
• Division Ranking: 4th out of 39 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 31st out of 499 men

Chris Daukaus

• CC Rating: 1696.5
• Division Ranking: 12th out of 39 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 139th out of 499 men

Lewis (#2 CC, #3 UFC) needs to get the taste of his last fight out of his mouth. He got another shot at UFC gold in an interim title fight against Ciryl Gane. Lewis was absolutely dominated, failing to land any meaningful strikes before Gane ended it with a TKO to take the interim belt. Lewis is still the most accomplished knockout artist in UFC heavyweight history, with 12 KOs to his name in the UFC octagon (20 over his entire pro career). While neither the most technical nor the most quick fighter out there, Lewis can end any fight at any time with just one blow. The 36 year-old can never be counted out.

Daukaus (#10 CC, #7 UFC) is putting together his own finishing legacy. He is 4-0 in his UFC career, with all four wins coming by knockout. The last three earned him performance of the night bonuses. After his win over Shamil Abdurakhimov (NR CC, #8 UFC), he is rising quickly through the UFC rankings. A win over a legend and two-time title challenger like Lewis would only accelerate that ascent and immediately put his name into the title picture in the heavyweight division.

Lewis’ pedigree has him as the prohibitive favorite. However, Daukaus will likely be the quicker fighter. Lewis’ one-punch power is the bigger threat, but Daukaus will be the more well-rounded fighter in the cage.

CC Projection: Derrick Lewis (68.8%)

Photo Credit: UFC