UFC Vegas 45 features an eight-fight prelim card, the final four of which are previewed in this post. You can read the forecasts for the first four here. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

Sijara Eubanks vs. Melissa Gatto (Women’s Flyweight)

Sijara Eubanks

• CC Rating: 1554.6
• Division Ranking: 31st out of 42 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 75th out of 117 women

Melissa Gatto

• CC Rating: 1571.3
• Division Ranking: 23rd out of 42 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 62nd out of 117 women

Eubanks made her UFC debut in the flyweight division. She started 2-0, but a weight miss ahead of her bout with Roxanne Modafferi saw her forced up to bantamweight, where she’d face some stiff competition. She went 2-4 over her next six fights at 135 pounds, but those losses came against top contender Aspen Ladd (#10 CC, #4 UFC), former title challenger Bethe Correia, and fellow contenders Pannie Kianzad (#14 CC, #12 UFC) and Ketlen Vieira (#4 CC, #5 UFC). Eubanks would then come down to flyweight again and beat promotional newcomer Elise Reed by first round KO in July. She stays at flyweight for this one, but again missed weight this morning.

Melissa Gatto is an undefeated 7-0-2 in her MMA career. In her UFC debut, she finished off Victoria Leonardo by breaking her arm in the second round, rendering her unable to continue. Gatto holds an impressive submission victory over ranked bantamweight contender Karol Rosa (#7 CC, #13 UFC) when they both fought for Nacao Cyborg. Gatto had a long road to the UFC, but now is hoping this win over a former contender will vault her into the conversation in a very dense flyweight division.

Eubanks’ struggles and Gatto’s perfection thus far have the relative newcomer as a slight favorite. It remains to be seen how the weight miss will impact the fight.

CC Projection: Melissa Gatto (52.4%)

Justin Tafa vs. Harry Hunsucker (Men’s Heavyweight)

Justin Tafa

• CC Rating: 1519.8
• Division Ranking: 35th out of 39 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 459th out of 499 men

Harry Hunsucker

• CC Rating: 1486.5
• Division Ranking: 39th out of 39 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 487th out of 499 men

For how long the UFC has been going, historic firsts are getting harder to come by. Yet, Tafa has managed just that. This morning, Tafa became the first heavyweight in UFC history to miss weight. Tafa weighed in at 267 pounds and announced he would not continue cutting weight. Maybe the extra pound will give him the advantage he needs to cut his losing streak short. Tafa has lost three of his four UFC fights, including his last two. According to the CC forecast, Tafa was favored to win two of those bouts.

Hunsucker actually comes in lighter for this one, weighing in at 238.5 pounds. Hunsucker made his UFC debut in March, where he was welcomed by heavyweight contender, Tai Tuivasa (#6 CC, #11 UFC). Hunsucker’s fate was the same as most all of Tuivasa’s other opponents: he was swiftly KO’d. He does currently hold the dubious distinction of being the lowest rated heavyweight in the UFC, but with his only appearance being against a man who is now a top contender, it is hard to know exactly where he fits in. We will find out.

As the lowest rated heavyweight, Hunsucker will come in as an underdog against anyone in this division. Though, the forecast says it will be close.

CC Projection: Justin Tafa (54.8%)

[10] Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry (Men’s Bantamweight)

Raoni Barcelos

• CC Rating: 1741.3
• Division Ranking: 12th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 80th out of 499 men

Victor Henry

• CC Rating: 1690.0
• Division Ranking: 21st out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 153rd out of 499 men

Barcelos (#10 CC, NR UFC) is coming off his first loss in the UFC at the hands of Dagestani bantamweight, Timur Valiev. The loss snapped a streak of five straight wins in the UFC and nine straight wins overall. Barcelos is a former RFA bantamweight champion and holds an impressive 16-2 record for his career. Ten of those 16 wins are by finish (eight knockouts, two submissions). It’s been two-and-a-half years since he secured a finish. He’ll look to bounce back and change that tomorrow.

Barcelos will welcome UFC newcomer Henry to the octagon. The 34 year-old has been a dominant bantamweight champion in other promotions, having had a run of success in Japanese promotions and regional ones in the US. Henry has a variety of finishes, with six KOs, eight submissions, and seven decisions over his 21-win career. Because of his experience and past success, he comes in relatively highly rated for a newcomer.

Barcelos’ recent defeat is not enough to dilute his dominance until then. He comes in as the favorite to spoil Henry’s debut.

CC Projection: Raoni Barcelos (57.3%)

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (Men’s Middleweight)

Gerald Meerschaert

• CC Rating: 1690.9
• Division Ranking: 23rd out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 151st out of 499 men

Dustin Stoltzfus

• CC Rating: 1552.9
• Division Ranking: 58th out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 421st out of 499 men

Meerschaert (pictured, above) holds the UFC record for most submission wins by a middleweight, with seven. Two of those have come in 2021. It has been a remarkable recovery since he was knocked out by Khamzat Chimaev (NR CC, #11 UFC) in just 17 seconds in September of last year. Meerschaert is surely hoping to put together a career renaissance and crack the middleweight top 15 by completing his third win of the year going into 2022.

On the other hand, Stoltzfus is still searching for his first UFC win. He came into the UFC after a win on Dana White’s Contender Series and a 12-1 professional record overall. He lost his debut to Kyle Daukaus in November of last year. He followed that up in July by being submitted against Rodolfo Vieira. If there’s any vulnerability on the ground here, Meerschaert will make him pay again. Stoltzfus does have five career submissions, so the question in this fight may be who wants to get it to the ground more.

Meerschaert’s recent turnaround and finishing ability make him the prohibitive favorite in this bout.

CC Projection: Gerald Meerschaert (68.9%)

Photo Credit: MMA Fighting