UFC Vegas 45 features an eight-fight prelim card, four of which are previewed in this post. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

Matt Sayles vs. Jordan Leavitt (Men’s Lightweight)

Matt Sayles

• CC Rating: 1537.9
• Division Ranking: 76th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 438th out of 499 men

Jordan Leavitt

• CC Rating: 1585.1
• Division Ranking: 61st out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 349th out of 499 men

Sayles will make his UFC lightweight debut after fighting his first three down at featherweight. It’s been over two years since he last stepped foot in the octagon. He missed the featherweight limit by two-and-a-half pounds and was nonetheless knocked out by Bryce Mitchell (#9 CC, #11 UFC). When Sayles is on, he has solid finishing ability, having finished seven of his eight career wins. Sayles’ only other appearance at lightweight ended with a KO win in 2017 in the CFFC promotion.

Leavitt made a statement in his UFC debut, slamming veteran Matt Wiman onto the canvas, knocking him out cold. That knockout, which came just 22 seconds into the fight, earned Leavitt a performance bonus and sent Wiman into retirement. Despite being a -200 favorite according to oddsmakers and a 55.4% favorite to win according the CC forecast, Leavitt dropped his next bout by decision to Claudio Puelles. Six months later, he’ll look to end 2021 the same way he ended 2020: with a statement KO.

Sayles has been too inconsistent to be a favorite in this one. Leavitt hasn’t proven much more, but still comes in as the favorite.

CC Projection: Jordan Leavitt (56.8%)

Don’Tale Mayes vs. Josh Parisian (Men’s Heavyweight)

Don’Tale Mayes

• CC Rating: 1523.4
• Division Ranking: 34th out of 39 heayweights
• Overall Ranking: 455th out of 498 men

Josh Parisian

• CC Rating: 1555.5
• Division Ranking: 31st out of 39 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 413th out of 498 men

Mayes’ debut saw him lose via submission to current interim heavyweight champion Ciryl Gane. His second effort was not any better, with him being submitted yet again at the hands of Rodrigo Nascimento. His most recent bout saw him nab a decision win against Roque Martinez. Now in the UFC win column, Mayes will look to climb out of the basement of the heavyweight division.

Parisian’s last fight in the UFC was also a win over Roque Martinez. He nabbed a split decision, whereas Mayes’ was unanimous. This was a recovery after falling to Parker Porter in his UFC debut back in November 2020. Despite the recent run of decisions, only two of Parisian’s 14 career wins have come via the judges’ scorecards.

In another battle of fighters struggling to find a groove, Parisian has the slim edge.

CC Projection: Josh Parisian (54.6%)

[8] Raquel Pennington vs. [9] Macy Chiasson (Women’s Featherweight)

Raquel Pennington

• CC Rating: 1638.2
• Division Ranking: 9th out of 28 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 30th out of 117 women

Macy Chiasson

• CC Rating: 1633.0
• Division Ranking: 10th out of 28 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 32nd out of 117 women

After her September win against Pannie Kianzad (#14 CC, #12 UFC), Pennington (#8 CC, #8 UFC) has now won three of her four fights in the UFC. The 33 year-old veteran and former title contender will look to make another run at gold by stringing together some more victories. It’s a decent time to do it, as the bantamweight division seems more open than it has been in years. Pennington (pictured, above left) only has one knockout win in her career, but as she displayed against Kianzad, is dangerous with dirty boxing in the clinch.

Chiasson (#9 CC, #10 UFC) is taking this fight on short notice after Julia Avila (#11 CC, #14 UFC) dropped out with injury. Chiasson (pictured, above right) was supposed to fight in October against Aspen Ladd (#10 CC, #4 UFC), but had to drop out due to COVID. The short notice nature of this bout is why it’s being fought at 145 pounds, instead of their natural 135. Chiasson is also chasing a shot at the belt, being an impressive 5-1 in her UFC career after winning season 28 of The Ultimate Fighter. Three of those wins are by finish.

Pennington’s experience makes her the slimmest of favorites in this battle of very evenly matched fighters. We’ll see how much the lack of a fight camp for Chiasson affects her Saturday.

CC Projection: Raquel Pennington (50.7%)

Charles Jourdain vs. Andre Ewell (Men’s Featherweight)

Charles Jourdain

• CC Rating: 1595.8
• Division Ranking: 50th out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 327th out of 498 men

Andre Ewell

• CC Rating: 1580.7
• Division Ranking: 56th out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 358th out of 498 men

Jourdain has had a relatively pedestrian go of it in the UFC, putting together a 2-3-1 record overall. His last bout saw him lose by submission to Julian Erosa, who’d taken the fight on very short notice. His career peak came with a knockout of Choi Doo-ho in 2019 in a fight of the night performance. Jourdain does have eight knockouts in 11 career wins (his other three wins are by submission), so he is always a threat to end it.

Ewell comes up to featherweight for this bout, after losing two straight. Ewell is a long way removed from his UFC debut, where he defeated former UFC bantamweight champion Renan Barao. All in all, Ewell is an even 4-4 in his UFC career. All of his four UFC wins were by decision. Stunningly, three of those four were split decisions. Ewell is in desperate need of a convincing win to get his career back on track.

In a bout of fighters looking for any sort of rhythm, Jourdain has the edge for his finishing ability and convincing nature of his wins.

CC Projection: Charles Jourdain (52.2%)

Photo Credit: WMMARankings.com