Well, the UFC’s final pay-per-view card of the year did not disappoint. We came in with plenty of questions and now leave with plenty of answers (and, for that matter, plenty of new questions as well). After the dust settled, a new champion was crowned in perhaps the biggest upset in UFC history and another champion silenced a lot of doubters.

Through the 14 fights, the Cage Calculus forecast favorites went 8-6, bringing the forecast favorites to an overall 92-53-2 record since the site’s inception. A friendly reminder that the projections indicate win probabilities and are not absolute predictions. You can look back at the previews for UFC 268 here, here, and here.

So, without further ado, here are the many things we learned at UFC 269:

Charles Oliveira is the Best Lightweight in the World

There were a lot of people saying that Dustin Poirier (#1 CC, #2 UFC) was only a contender and not the champion because he opted for a trilogy fight with Conor McGregor (#4 CC, #9 UFC) instead of a title bout (even the Cage Calculus ratings had Poirier rated more highly than Oliveira coming in). There were others that claimed former interim champion Justin Gaethje (#2 CC, #1 UFC) ought to have merited a title shot before Oliveira. Still, there are others who’d make the case that the most dangerous, talented fighter in the lightweight division is Islam Makhachev (#5 CC, #4 UFC). The champion, Oliveira was not getting the respect or recognition generally given to other title holders.

Most all of those doubts were put to rest Saturday night. After overcoming adversity in the first round, Oliveira battled back and won the second round. He then added to his UFC record, by obtaining his 15th submission win in the third round. Oliveira now stands on top of the lightweight division in the CC rankings and is just one win away from becoming just the second lightweight (and seventh man overall) to eclipse a 2000 CC rating. It should take some hard proof before anyone overcomes Oliveira in the minds of MMA fans. He is the best there is and can begin making the case that he is the best lightweight ever if he goes on a run.

Julianna Pena Pulled off the Biggest Upset in UFC History

Yes, there is a case to be made that Holly Holm over Ronda Rousey or Matt Serra over Georges St-Pierre were more shocking at the time and had longer odds in Vegas. However, as it relates to the Cage Calculus forecast, there’s never been a bigger upset in UFC history. Coming in, Pena (pictured above) and Nunes (#1 CC, #1 UFC) were separated by 345.4 CC ratings points. The previous upset record in the CC forecast was Chris Weidman’s first victory over Anderson Silva. Weidman and Silva were separated by 338.2 CC ratings points prior to that fight.

Also consider the fact that Nunes was an active double-champ, defending both the bantamweight and featherweight belts and was universally considered the greatest of all-time in women’s MMA. There is no way to understate how monumental Pena’s win was. The win netted her nearly 100 CC ratings points and moved her from #33 to #9 in the overall women’s rankings. She’s still a long way off from Nunes and the other female champions, Valentina Shevchenko and Rose Namajunas, but she will deservedly garner more respect prior to her first title defense.

It’s Not Time to Bury Amanda Nunes… Yet

This morning, the UFC demoted Nunes to #3 in the women’s pound-for-pound rankings, falling behind Shevchenko and Namajunas respectively. That feels a little premature. She is still the champion of the featherweight division (sparse though it may be) and was considered the greatest of all-time just a couple of days ago, and still is for that matter. It is far too early to start talking about retirement or that she might be losing a step. There isn’t enough evidence of that.

The manner in which she lost at UFC 269 was concerning. The rear-naked choke did not look to be under the neck or very tight at all. It looked like a desperation tap or that Nunes just was so distressed at taking the type of shots she has not experienced in a long time from Pena. Her next fight, whenever that comes, will tell a bigger story. For now, she still retains her spot as the top female fighter in the UFC, narrowly remaining ahead of Shevchenko by 8.2 CC ratings points.

Amanda Nunes’ Loss Creates Chaos for the UFC

While this is a post about things we learned from UFC 269, one of those things happens to be that we have no idea what is going to happen with the women’s bantamweight and featherweight divisions going forward now because of Nunes’ loss. Nunes has verbally accepted a rematch with Pena, but also said she needs to take some time to get right. That could mean any number of things, especially given that it was almost two years since her last bantamweight fight when she stepped in the octagon on Saturday. So, does Pena’s belt sit undefended until Nunes comes back or will there be a fight in between?

The featherweight division also gets thrown into flux as a result of this, as Nunes will no doubt turn her attention to regaining her bantamweight belt. Dana White was surely hoping to entice prized free agent Kayla Harrison to join the women’s featherweight division for a blockbuster title fight. Now, that seems to be a ways off, if it will ever happen at all. Also curious is that presumptive #1 featherweight contender, Norma Dumont (#3 CC) recently got placed in the official UFC bantamweight rankings at #15. Could this be a signal that the division will soon go by the wayside altogether? There are a lot of questions for women in the UFC that will need to be answered in the coming months.

It Might Be Time for Cody Garbrandt to Hang it Up

Everyone wants to remember Garbrandt (#7 CC, NR UFC) as the brash fighter who dismantled Dominick Cruz, who was the most dominant bantamweight champion of all-time at the time of their fight. Or, as the bantamweight with the one punch KO power he showed against Raphael Assuncao (NR CC, #12 UFC). But, Garbrandt has lost five of his last six fights now, being finished in four of them. It’s tough to envision him having a path back to title contention in any weight class at this point. Given his legacy, the UFC will likely be patient, but Garbrandt and his team ought to have a long, hard look at the future. A big change, whether that’s retirement or a strategy shift that doesn’t entail taking so much punishment, is in order.

Kai Kara-France is a Contender… But Pump the Brakes on Title Talk

Kara-France (#6 CC, #6 UFC) just strung together his second straight first round KO, earning him another performance of the night bonus. He moved from 10th to 6th in the CC flyweight rankings. The win prompted him to call for a title shot against the winner of Moreno-Figueiredo 3 at UFC 270. While we are as impressed as anyone at his finishing ability of late, a title shot feels premature. Kara-France, even with his streak of KOs, is 3-2 in his last five fights. Alexandre Pantoja (#2 CC, #3 UFC) seems the most logical choice, as he is on a win streak of his own and was previously in the title conversation before that bout with Moreno fell through. If Askar Askarov (#3 CC, #2 UFC) is able to return from injury, he seems like a safe bet to jump Kara-France, as Askarov is an undefeated 13-0-1 with the draw being against the champ, Moreno. Kara-France has been impressive, but we don’t see him as warranting a title shot just yet.

Unranked Champion No More

If it wasn’t clear already, Sean O’Malley (#9 CC, #13 UFC) has what it takes to compete with the upper echelons of the UFC bantamweight division. He dismantled yet another unranked opponent and vaulted up both the CC and UFC rankings. He can no longer call himself the “unranked champion.” The only question becomes one of who might be next for him. The CC ratings suggest either veteran Frankie Edgar (#11 CC, #11 UFC) or fellow rising star Song Yadong (#14 CC, #14 UFC). Either way, it will be a significant step up to see just how legit O’Malley is.

Dominick Cruz Still Has It

Much has been made of the resurgence of Jose Aldo (#2 CC, #3 UFC) in the bantamweight division. However, the former champion, Cruz (#3 CC, #7 UFC) is starting to string together wins of his own. Cruz’s only losses in his UFC career were to the aforementioned Garbrandt and former UFC double champ, Henry Cejudo. Both came in title fights. Writing him off in the first place might have been premature. Many have suggested Cruz be the next test for O’Malley, but now others are calling for a veteran clash between Cruz and Aldo (despite Aldo’s expressed desire for a fight with TJ Dillashaw next). The CC ratings suggest that would be an excellent fight with massive legacy implications.

Tai Tuivasa is a Problem for the Heavyweight Division

Tuivasa (#6 CC, #11 UFC) has now put together a string of four straight KO wins. The competition keeps getting tougher and the Australian keeps knocking them down and out with regularity. In his first matchup with a ranked heavyweight Saturday, it was more of the same. He’s earned another shot at someone higher up the ladder. His one punch knockout power is an issue for heavyweights and the quick combinations he used to finish Augusto Sakai (NR CC, #12 UFC) could be a reason he makes a title run at some point in the future. He’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.

Flyweight Contenders Emerge

It seems like every other recap now, we talk about a new young female flyweight prospect turning in an impressive performance and displaying the skills to take a run at the rankings. UFC 269 is no exception. Kicking off the card was Gillian Robertson (#11 CC, NR UFC) completing a first round submission despite facing an opponent who missed weight badly and, to make matters worse, resorting to eye gouging when the choke was sunk in. The submission set a record for most finishes in flyweight history, overtaking the champion Valentina Shevchenko. That is no small feat. Robertson said afterward she feels like this is the beginning of her title run. She wants four fights in 2022 and to fight for the title in early 2023. As one of the most active flyweights, if anyone can do it, it’s her.

Erin Blanchfield also put on a dominant performance over Miranda Maverick in a fight where she came in as a decent underdog, with everyone expecting Maverick to resume her run up the UFC rankings after losing a controversial split decision. With both fighters taking this matchup on short notice, Blanchfield dominated in every facet of the game. It was a statement win for one of the youngest fighters in the UFC. The sky’s the limit if Blanchfield can add to her game from here.