The UFC 269 pay-per-view card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is a five fight card across five weight classes. It is capped by two title bouts; the first for the women’s bantamweight championship between current champion Amanda Nunes and challenger Julianna Pena. The main event is for the men’s lightweight title between champion Charles Oliveira and challenger, and former interim lightweight champion, Dustin Poirier. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

You can also view the forecasts for both prelim cards here and here.

[15] Sean O’Malley vs. Raulian Paiva (Men’s Bantamweight)

Sean O’Malley

• CC Rating: 1712.4
• Division Ranking: 17th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 122nd out of 498 men

Raulian Paiva

• CC Rating: 1690.4
• Division Ranking: 21st out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 152nd out of 498 men

No one in the UFC who does not officially have a numbered ranking next to his name has more hype than O’Malley (#15 CC, NR UFC). He delivered a stunning KO in his premiere on Dana White’s Contender Series. He then continued the hype in the UFC, going 6-1 in seven fights so far. His one blemish came against Marlon Vera (#6 CC, #11 UFC) where a leg kick severely compromised Malley’s lower leg. O’Malley’s last four wins have all come by way of knockout and he’s promised another at UFC 269. A win could signal the last time we see O’Malley face an unranked opponent.

Paiva is making just his second appearance at 135 pounds in this fight, coming up from flyweight. Paiva missed weight badly at UFC 251 for his bout against Zhalgas Zhumagulov. Paiva still won the bout, but the time had come for a change in weight class. His debut at bantamweight saw him win a narrow majority decision against O’Malley’s teammate, Kyler Phillips. Overall, Paiva is 3-2 in the UFC, but with his three wins being his three latest bouts.

The algorithm thinks this will be closer than many are anticipating, but ultimately believes O’Malley does have the better shot to win.

CC Projection: Sean O’Malley (53.2%)

[10] Kai Kara-France vs. [5] Cody Garbrandt (Men’s Flyweight)

Kai Kara-France

• CC Rating: 1630.6
• Division Ranking: 11th out of 32 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 249th out of 498 men

Cody Garbrandt

• CC Rating: 1715.7
• Division Ranking: 6th out of 32 flyweights.
• Overall Ranking: 117th out of 498 men

Kara-France is coming off of a stunning first round KO of Rogerio Bonterin (#11 CC, #7 UFC) at UFC 259. After his win over the aforementioned Paiva at UFC 234, Kara-France has alternated wins and losses. He’s 3-2 in his last five, having dropped bouts to current flyweight champion, Brandon Moreno and fellow contender Brandon Royval (NR CC, #5 UFC). He’s still waiting to break out of his shell and make a mark in this division for a run at the belt. He needs to start stringing wins (and impressive wins) together to do that.

His opponent would certainly be an impressive win. Garbrandt (#5 CC, NR UFC) makes his flyweight debut after a tough run of late in the bantamweight division, where he was formerly the UFC champion. Garbrandt has lost four of his last five. Two of those losses came against TJ Dillashaw (#1 CC, #1 UFC) in title bouts. His recent struggles should not obscure the fact that he has perhaps the fastest hands in the UFC. At bantamweight, Garbrandt finished ten of his twelve wins by knockout. He was scheduled to face then-flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo (#1 CC, #1 UFC) in November of last year for the belt, but had to pull out due to COVID. He was replaced by the current champ Moreno. He’ll look to re-enter the title picture with a convincing win here.

The algorithm respects Garbrandt’s experience and is not impressed with Kara-France’s performance when he steps up in competition.

CC Projection: Cody Garbrandt (62.0%)

Geoff Neal vs. [7] Santiago Ponzinibbio (Men’s Welterweight)

Geoff Neal

• CC Rating: 1684.3
• Division Ranking: 36th out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 163rd out of 498 men

Santiago Ponzinibbio

• CC Rating: 1802.6
• Division Ranking: 8th out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 40th out of 498 men

Neal (NR CC, #12 UFC) started his UFC career on a five-fight winning streak, including impressive wins over Belal Muhammad (#8 CC, #10 UFC) and Niko Price. That earned him a matchup with Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (#12 CC, #5 UFC), which Neal entered as a favorite according to oddsmakers (he only had a 43.6 percent chance according to the CC forecast). Neal dropped that fight pretty convincingly. The same happened in his subsequent matchup with Neil Magny (#6 CC, #7 UFC). Neal is now floundering to stay relevant in the welterweight top 15, badly needing a win.

Ponzinibbio (#7 CC, #14 UFC) is far and away the greatest Argentine mixed martial artist the UFC has ever seen. Ponzinibbio has put together a 10-3 record since joining the UFC. He’s won eight of his last nine, including a seven-fight win streak along the way. A bout with a staph infection and the global pandemic sidelined Ponzinibbio for over two years in the midst of that winning streak. He fell to Li Jingliang (NR CC, #13 UFC) in his return in January. He’d swiftly recover in June against Miguel Baeza. Ponzinibbio is looking to prove that the hot streak he’s on is no fluke and he deserves to be higher than 14th in the eyes of the UFC top brass.

Neal’s recent struggles and Ponzinibbio’s wealth of experience have him as the heavy favorite in this one.

CC Projection: Santiago Ponzinibbio (66.4%)

[C] Amanda Nunes vs. [9] Julianna Pena (Women’s Bantamweight Championship)

Amanda Nunes

• CC Rating: 1965.2
• Division Ranking: 1st out of 28 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 1st out of 117 women

Julianna Pena

• CC Rating: 1619.8
• Division Ranking: 10th out of 28 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 33rd out of 117 women

Nunes, the near-universally regarded greatest women’s mixed martial artist, looks to make her sixth defense of her bantamweight belt. A win would move her into a tie with former bantamweight champion, Ronda Rousey, and current flyweight champion, Valentina Shevchenko, for most consecutive defenses of a single belt in the women’s division. The last time Nunes was ever in any trouble in a bout was in September of 2017 when she eeked out a split decision victory over Shevchenko for the bantamweight belt. Since, she’s been as dominant as they come, defending two title simultaneously. Her current rating of 1965.2 is the highest ever for a female fighter in the CC ratings. In fact, she’s the only woman ever to even eclipse 1900 (Shevchenko is close now at 1895.4). A win here would be another feather in the cap of one of the most impressive MMA legacies of all time. This will be her first defense of her bantamweight belt in almost two years, focusing on her featherweight title in the meantime.

The next woman to try her hand at taking down the GOAT is Pena (#9 CC, #3 UFC). Pena has been calling for this fight for a long time, demanding it after Nunes first won the belt at UFC 200. Pena also scored an impressive win over Cat Zingano on that same card and declared she was next. Pena would instead face the aforementioned Shevchenko next at bantamweight and lose by submission, cooling her title aspirations. She’d recover with a win over former flyweight champion Nicco Montano before again being submitted in her next fight, this time by former UFC featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie (#1 CC, NR UFC). Pena would get a submission win of her own against Sara McMann at UFC 257 and again demand a title shot. It’s been granted now and she’ll certainly have her work cut out for her.

There is no diplomatic way to say this, but without Pena’s war of words in the media, there is no justification for this matchup. There are a number of contenders better suited to face off for the belt (even if the UFC was insistent upon having a new contender face Nunes). The 345.4 CC rating difference is the largest observed in the history of the forecast. Nunes will be the heaviest favorite in the forecast’s history in this one.

CC Projection: Amanda Nunes (88.0%)

[C] Charles Oliveira vs. [1] Dustin Poirier (Men’s Lightweight Championship)

Charles Oliveira

• CC Rating: 1940.7
• Division Ranking: 2nd out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 10th out of 498 men

Dustin Poirier

• CC Rating: 1983.1
• Division Ranking: 1st out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 4th out of 498 men

The lightweight champion Oliveira is the UFC’s record holder for most submission wins (14) and most finishes overall (17). All that culminated in his 28th UFC fight at UFC 262 in May, where he finally got a shot at UFC gold and he made the most of it. Winner of nine straight, Oliveira appears to be peaking this deep into his career. He made his case for being in the title picture with his dominant win over Tony Ferguson (#3 CC, #7 UFC) at UFC 256 last year. Everyone overlooked Oliveira, believing Ferguson would win and finally earn his shot at undisputed UFC gold. Oliveira rag-dolled him for three rounds, nearly earning a submission win when he had Ferguson in a tight armbar, but Ferguson was ultimately saved by the bell. He then knocked out Michael Chandler (#12 CC, #5 UFC) in impressive fashion to finally take home his belt. He won’t be overlooked any longer.

He’ll face another UFC veteran in Poirier (#1 CC, #1 UFC). Poirier will look to cap off a lucrative 2021 with his first undisputed UFC title. Poirier is coming off of two consecutive knockout wins over Conor McGregor (#4 CC, #9 UFC). Poirier is himself the former interim champion, when he beat then-featherweight champion Max Holloway for the interim lightweight belt. He was not able to unify that belt, as he was submitted by then-champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Poirier’s resume is outstanding. In the last five years, in addition to beating McGregor and Holloway, Poirier has bested former UFC champions Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje (#2 CC, #2 UFC), and Anthony Pettis. He’s also beaten the likes of Dan Hooker (#15 CC, #8 UFC) and Jim Miller. The only obstacle left is the Brazilian champion.

This is one of the highest possible combined CC ratings for a matchup within a single division possible right now. Only Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway or a rematch between Francis Ngannou and Stipe Miocic would yield a higher combined score (alternatively, a heavyweight bout between either Ngannou or Miocic and Jon Jones would also be a higher score). This will be one for the ages. The lightweight division is one of the only divisions where the #1 contender has a higher CC rating than the champion. Poirier will come in as the favorite to finally achieve his career dream and capture UFC gold.

CC Projection: Dustin Poirier (56.1%)

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