UFC 269 kicks off with a ten fight prelim card, the final five of which are previewed below. You can find the projections for the first five prelims here. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC rankings. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

[14] Andre Muniz vs. Eryk Anders (Men’s Middleweight)

Andre Muniz

• CC Rating: 1717.1
• Division Ranking: 15th out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 113th out of 498 men

Eryk Anders

• CC Rating: 1657.5
• Division Ranking: 25th out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 204th out of 498 men

Muniz (#14 CC, NR UFC) is quietly stringing together an impressive run at middleweight. His last loss at 185 pounds was in October of 2013. After two wins on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018 and 2019, Muniz earned a UFC contract. He hasn’t disappointed there either. He is 3-0 since joining the big promotion. In his last bout, he ended the UFC career of Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza via armbar. Unfortunately, due to Souza’s unwillingness to tap, Muniz had to break the arm for all to see (and hear). That represented a submission over one of the greatest grapplers in MMA history. It’s no surprise, as Muniz has finished 14 of his 21 career wins by submission (including two of his three UFC wins). He’s already cracked the CC top 15. Now, he wants to get the respect from the UFC top brass.

His opponent, Anders, will look to seize an opportunity that’s fallen in his lap. Anders has been a relatively disappointing 6-5 in his UFC career, with one no contest bout added on top of that for an illegal knee. However, with rising South African prospect Dricus Du Plessis dropping out of the fight with Muniz, Anders will fill that void on this card. Though Anders’ finishing ability has seemingly waned of late, he does still have eight KOs in 14 career wins. His power is not to be taken lightly. He’ll also likely be on the bigger end as he’s moving down from light heavyweight to take this bout.

Muniz has been too dominant for too long and the algorithm sees him as a criminally underrated fighter in this division. He has the decent advantage in this fight.

CC Projection: Andre Muniz (58.5%)

Bruno Silva vs. Jordan Wright (Men’s Middleweight)

Bruno Silva

• CC Rating: 1640.1
• Division Ranking: 30th out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 230th out of 498 men

Jordan Wright

• CC Rating: 1614.9
• Division Ranking: 39th out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 279th out of 498 men

Silva has lived up to the hype thus far in his short UFC career. Coming in as the former M-1 middleweight champion, he has delivered two wins and two knockouts inside the octagon. This fight will be his third in the UFC in just under six months. This is unsurprising as, in 21 career wins for Silva, a whopping 18 have come by knockout. Silva is coming off of relatively easy wins over Wellington Turman and Andrew Sanchez in June and October respectively.

Wright has had an up-and-down ride in the UFC thus far. He began by cutting Ike Villanueva badly with a knee 90 seconds in, which led the ringside doctor to call a stop to the fight. Three months later, he became the latest highlight reel knockout for Joaquin Buckley. Wright eventually recovered at UFC 262 with another knockout in under two minutes against Jamie Pickett.

This fight is closer than oddsmakers give it credit for (currently Silva is a -360 favorite). However, the algorithm does agree that Silva is the better fighter coming in.

CC Projection: Bruno Silva (53.6%)

Augusto Sakai vs. [9] Tai Tuivasa (Men’s Heavyweight)

Augusto Sakai

• CC Rating: 1635.1
• Division Ranking: 22nd out of 39 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 240th out of 498 men

Tai Tuivasa

• CC Rating: 1700.2
• Division Ranking: 11th out of 39 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 136th out of 498 men

Sakai (NR CC, #11 UFC) started his UFC career on a roll. He won four straight to start, including wins over top heavyweights Andrei Arlovski (#15 CC, NR UFC), Blagoy Ivanov (#8 CC, #12 UFC), and Marcin Tybura (#5 CC, #9 UFC). This earned him the opportunity to headline fight cards, as his last two fights have been five round main events. Unfortunately for him, this hasn’t translated to further success. In both headliners, he was knocked out by Alistair Overeem and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (#7 CC, #6 UFC). He returns to the under card, looking to recapture the magic.

Tuivasa (#9 CC, NR UFC) is on an opposite trajectory. He began his UFC career 3-0. He would then go on to lose each of his next three. Now, however, he’s put together yet another three-fight winning streak. This latest streak has seen him string together three consecutive first round knockouts against Stefan Struve, Harry Hunsucker, and Greg Hardy. This will be his chance to cement his spot in the UFC’s top 15 and become a bona fide contender in the dense heavyweight division.

The algorithm loves momentum and tabs Tuivasa to continue his run.

CC Projection: Tai Tuivasa (59.3%)

[5] Pedro Munhoz vs. [3] Dominick Cruz (Men’s Bantamweight)

Pedro Munhoz

• CC Rating: 1785.5
• Division Ranking: 7th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 46th out of 498 men

Dominick Cruz

• CC Rating: 1853.6
• Division Ranking: 4th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 22nd out of 498 men

You have to go back to March 2018 to find the last fight where Munhoz (#5 CC, #8 UFC) lost to someone who had not previously been a UFC champion. Munhoz has lost three of his last four, but they came at the hands of former featherweight champion Jose Aldo (#2 CC, #3 UFC), former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (#10 CC, #13 UFC), and current bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling. Munhoz’s strength of schedule is off the charts. It will only go higher from here, as he sets up to face off against another former champion.

Cruz (#3 CC, #9 UFC) will walk into the UFC 269 octagon for his 9th UFC fight. It will only be his third non-title fight. Cruz (pictured, above) is perhaps the most dominant bantamweight in the history of the UFC. He’s won four bantamweight title fights, tied with Renan Barao for most in UFC history (Cruz stands alone if you don’t count interim title fights). Cruz eventually lost his title to Cody Garbrandt (#5 CC-flyweight), who fights on this card as well. Cruz dropped another bid for the belt to then-champ (and former double champ), Henry Cejudo. Cruz righted the ship against unranked Casey Kenney in March and now looks to climb back up the ranks of the division he used to own.

Cruz is being written off for his age and inactivity as of late. People forget his dominance and how much it has taken to beat him lately. He is given the significant edge in this one.

CC Projection: Dominick Cruz (59.7%)

[3] Josh Emmett vs. [15] Dan Ige (Men’s Featherweight)

Josh Emmett

• CC Rating: 1778.5
• Division Ranking: 4th out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 51st out of 498 men

Dan Ige

• CC Rating: 1714.5
• Division Ranking: 16th out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 120th out of 498 men

It’s been a long road back to the UFC for Emmett (#3 CC, #7 UFC). He tore his ACL in his fight against Shane Burgos (NR CC, #14 UFC) back in June of 2020. Despite the injury, Emmett went on to win that fight before stepping out of the octagon for a year-and-a-half. Emmett has won five of his last six and was firmly on the rise in the featherweight division. Adding to his momentum was his streak of two consecutive bonuses before the injury hiatus. Emmett has the skills to compete at the top of this division. The question is whether or not the injury or the time off will impact his performance. We won’t have to wait long to see.

Ige (#15 CC, #9 UFC) is another man looking to change his fortunes but for different reasons. Ige snapped a six-fight winning streak last July against Calvin Kattar (#7 CC, #5 UFC). After securing a quick, highlight reel KO of Gavin Tucker this March, he turned around and fought The Korean Zombie (#6 CC, #4 UFC) in a main event bout. Ige was dominated for most of the five round fight. Ige is sliding down the rankings and needs a win to stay relevant in this division.

The algorithm sees Ige’s recent struggles hurting him more than Emmett’s inactivity. Emmet gets the edge in the featured prelim.

CC Projection: Josh Emmett (59.1%)

Photo Credit: MMA Fighting