UFC 269 kicks off with a ten fight prelim card, the first five of which are previewed here. These first five bouts feature a number of high octane fights, including two that will shape the future of the women’s flyweight division. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC rankings. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

Priscila Cachoeira vs. Gillian Robertson (Women’s Flyweight)

Priscila Cachoeira

• CC Rating: 1568.5
• Division Ranking: 25th out of 42 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 64th out of 117 women

Gillian Robertson

• CC Rating: 1576.3
• Division Ranking: 21st out of 42 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 58th out of 117 women

To say that Cachoeira had a rough start to her UFC career would be an understatement. She suffered her first professional defeat in her UFC debut by submission at the hands of none other than the then-future flyweight champion, Valentina Shevchenko. She would then go on to lose each of her next two bouts, starting her career off on a three-fight losing streak. However, she pulled it together, stringing together wins against Shana Dobson and Gina Mazany. She’ll still have some proving to do, as Dobson has since been cut from the UFC and Mazany sits as the lowest rated female flyweight in the CC ratings.

If Cachoeira was hoping for a stronger opponent, she certainly found one in Robertson (pictured, above left). Robertson is currently tied for the UFC record for most finishes by a women’s flyweight with the champion Shevchenko. Robertson started out hot in this division. However, her momentum was stalled a bit when she was kncoked out by fellow flyweight phenom Maycee Barber (#11 CC, #13 UFC) in the first round. She would rebound with two straight wins over Cortney Casey and Poliana Botelho. That is where the winning stopped. Robertson is now on a two-fight losing streak after being defeated by Taila Santos (#2 CC, #5 UFC) and Miranda Maverick (#15 CC, NR UFC). Her losses have typically come against top tier talent. Robertson will look to prove she is still a cut above. Despite having ten UFC fights already, she is only 26 years old. There is a lot of time for this submission artist to yet make a run at the rankings.

Robertson’s experience, finishing ability, and strength of schedule gives her a slight advantage over the surging Cachoeira.

CC Projection: Gillian Robertson (51.1%)

Randy Costa vs. Tony Kelley (Men’s Bantamtweight)

Randy Costa

• CC Rating: 1550.9
• Division Ranking: 63rd out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 422nd out of 498 men

Tony Kelley

• CC Rating: 1538.5
• Division Ranking: 68th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 437th out of 498 men

Costa has yet to see a fight through to the judges’ scorecards in his entire MMA career. All of his wins and all of his losses have been finishes. Even more stunning is that all of Costa’s wins have been by knockouts in the first round. On the other hand, however, that means Costa has yet to win a fight in his career that has gone beyond one round. His most recent loss came to Adrian Yanez, who has demonstrated impressive abilities since. That might become more forgivable a defeat as time passes.

Kelley, on the other hand, has seen both of his fights in the UFC go the distance. One came up in his favor against Ali AlQaisi. He fell in the other, his UFC debut, against Kai Kamaka. One advantage to look out for for Kelley in this bout is his submission ability. Submissions are Kelley’s most common method of victory over his professional MMA career. Costa, on the other hand, does not have one submission to his credit. Kelley will look to show no ring rust, as it’s been over a year since his last bout.

Costa’s activity and perfect finishing rate give him the edge.

CC Projection: Randy Costa (51.8%)

Ryan Hall vs. Darrick Minner (Men’s Featherweight)

Ryan Hall

• CC Rating: 1616.4
• Division Ranking: 36th out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 274th out of 498 men

Darrick Minner

• CC Rating: 1594.1
• Division Ranking: 53rd out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 337th out of 498 men

You know what Hall is going out there to do. He’s going to go for a submission (typically a heel hook). The only question is whether or not opponents can stop it. Since 2006, only Ilia Topuria has stopped Hall in his MMA career. Hall is one of the most proficient Brazilian Jiu Jitsu artists in the game today. His unorthodox grappling style has even made it hard for him to find an opponent at times. His ability to get a hold of an opponent’s ankles and torque the leg is second to none. For those who don’t believe that, Hall’s fight against BJ Penn is required viewing before Saturday. On the feet, Hall, honestly, looks like anyone off the street, not having a KO since 2014. If the game goes to the ground, Hall is as dangerous as anyone in the sport.

Not to be outdone, Minner has 26 career MMA wins, 22 of which are by submission. That is an absurdly high submission rate. Minner came to his UFC debut with 34 pro fights already under his belt. He’s gone 2-2 in four fights thus far, with one submission win. One thing that may set Minner apart from Hall in the ground game is that Minner has been submitted himself eight times, whereas Hall has never been submitted. This may be a product, however, of Minner’s wealth of experience. He has 38 pro fights, compared to Hall’s 10.

Hall’s proficiency, especially since he joined the UFC is just a step above. He comes in as the favorite in what promises to be a grappling spectacle.

CC Projection: Ryan Hall (53.2%)

[4] Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell (Men’s Flyweight)

Alex Perez

• CC Rating: 1733.3
• Division Ranking: 5th out of 32 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 91st out of 498 men

Matt Schnell

• CC Rating: 1601.9
• Division Ranking: 17th out of 32 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 308th out of 498 men

It has been over a year since Perez (#4CC, #4 UFC) challenged Deiveson Figueiredo (#1 CC, #1 UFC) for the flyweight title. Perez was submitted early, though he does have a legitimate gripe that Figueiredo used a fence grab to get position. Aside from that, Perez has been near flawless in the UFC. He is 6-2 in his eight-fight UFC career, with his only other loss being against former flyweight title challenger Joseph Benavidez. It takes a special brand of fighter to beat Perez, that is for certain.

After winning the Legacy FC flyweight championship, Schnell (NR CC, #9 UFC) came into the fledgling 125 pound division with high expectations. However, he started with two consecutive losses to start. He’d get it together, winning five of his next six, with the lone loss being against the dangerous Alexandre Pantoja (#2 CC, #3 UFC). Schnell has also played footsie with bantamweight, with his most recent bout being a loss at 135 pounds. He comes back down to flyweight with an opportunity to climb the UFC ranks and to enter the CC flyweight top 15.

The algorithm does not think this will be close. Perez has faced higher quality opponents and put together a better record than Schnell. He is a sizable favorite.

CC Projection: Alex Perez (68.1%)

Erin Blanchfield vs. [15] Miranda Maverick (Women’s Flyweight)

Erin Blanchfield

• CC Rating: 1560.6
• Division Ranking: 30th out of 42 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 73rd out of 117 women

Miranda Maverick

• CC Rating: 1596.1
• Division Ranking: 16th out of 42 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 47th out of 117 women

The UFC has very high hopes for Blanchfield and regards her as one of the top women’s prospects in the game today. She certainly backed it up with a relentless victory over Sarah Alpar in her UFC debut. Blanchfield initially stepped in to face Maycee Barber on this card after Montana De La Rosa (#8 CC, NR UFC) pulled out. However, Barber subsequently pulled out as well. It seems clear Blanchfield is another rising prospect who can potentially challenge for the flyweight title one day, being thrust this close to the top 15 at only 22 years of age.

Maverick (pictured, above right) is another prospect in this division, being only 24 years old herself. She started her career with a vicious finish of Liana Jojua, that very nearly took Jojua’s nose off her face. She then scored an impressive win over the aforementioned Robertson. Maverick’s third UFC bout was a matchup against Maycee Barber (who Maverick is replacing on short notice in this bout). Despite almost every MMA outlet scoring the bout in Maverick’s favor, two of the three judges scored it for Barber, handing Maverick her first UFC loss and stalling her ascent in the top 15 temporarily. Maverick can prove she’s still a top young gun by knocking off the UFC’s newest flyweight prospect on short notice in front of a packed crowd.

Maverick’s experience gives her the edge in what ought to be a fantastic flyweight showcase.

CC Projection: Miranda Maverick (55.1%)