What We Learned from UFC Fight Night (Font vs. Aldo)

As the old mantra goes, “Legends never die.” Jose Aldo went out trying to prove that and more at UFC Vegas 44. He’s certainly making it hard for critics to argue. The former featherweight champion is making waves at bantamweight with three straight victories. After the dust settled, more than one weight class saw a shift in the rankings and a number of prospects rose.

Through the 13 fights, the Cage Calculus forecast favorites went 7-6, bringing the forecast favorites to an overall 84-47-2 record since the site’s inception. A friendly reminder that the projections indicate win probabilities and are not absolute predictions. You can look back at the previews for UFC 268 herehere, and here.

Without further ado, here is what we learned at UFC Vegas 44:

Jose Aldo vs. TJ Dillashaw is Next

After losing to Marlon Moraes (NR CC, #10 UFC) in his bantamweight debut and getting pummeled by current interim champion Petr Yan his next time out, many MMA fans were ready to write Aldo (#2 CC, #3 UFC) off. But after putting together two straight wins, he delivered a third in his biggest statement yet at 135 pounds. Aldo dominated Rob Font (#4 CC, #5 UFC) over five rounds, nearly knocking him out twice. Aldo is not only not over the hill, but he now has to be considered firmly in the title picture in the bantamweight division.

The disjointed timing in the division may be a blessing in disguise now. With the long-awaited rematch between Yan and current belt holder Aljamain Sterling looming for an unknown date due to Sterling’s neck issues, no one knows quite when the next man up will get a shot. This gives Aldo and former bantamweight champ, TJ Dillashaw (#1 CC, #2 UFC) a chance to battle out to determine who that next man might. This battle of UFC legends would be must-watch, even more so given that it would have very real title implications. Aldo named Dillashaw as his preferred opponent after the Font fight. It makes sense on too many levels not to happen.

Rafael Fiziev is Exciting, But Let’s Pump the Brakes

Fiziev (NR CC, #11 UFC) delivered another bonus-worthy performance Saturday night (his fourth consecutive). He is one of the most exciting fighters in the promotion for sure. He is certainly making his way up the leaderboard, with five consecutive wins in the UFC. However, commentator Daniel Cormier asserted he needs a top 10 opponent. While Fiziev is exciting, he still hasn’t generated enough to crack the CC top 15. The threshold to clear the CC lightweight top 15 right now is a CC rating of 1733.2. Fiziev has never faced a fighter with a CC rating above 1700 thus far in his career. While he’s exciting, and deserves a chance to prove himself, this KO victory can’t quite convince us that he’s top tier material just yet. His strength of schedule needs to improve significantly first.

Jamahal Hill Needs More Respect on His Name

Hill (NR CC, #12 UFC) annihilated Jimmy Crute (NR CC, #14 UFC) within one minute at UFC Vegas 44. The win was not enough to put him in the CC light heavyweight top 15 just yet. His strength of victory is still a little lacking and he got docked quite a few points for being finished as early as he did against Paul Craig (#7 CC, #11 UFC). However, his performance Saturday showed without a doubt that he deserved to be far closer than he was coming in. His CC rating got a big boost as a result of this win and a KO win over an opponent like Crute will help his strength of victory numbers in the future. What would help it even more is if he gets his wish, facing off against middleweight Paulo Costa (#8 CC, #5 UFC) who may make the full-time jump to light heavyweight.

Chris Curtis Needs a UFC-Ranked Opponent

Curtis (#9 CC, NR UFC) has now taken two fights on short notice within the span of a month. He delivered bonus-worthy knockouts in both of those fights. He was a sizable underdog according to Vegas oddsmakers in both fights (CC, though, did have him as a favorite in his first). The two KOs against very strong opponents have vaulted Curtis into the CC middleweight top 10 in just two fights in the UFC. It’s time for the matchmakers at UFC to give Curtis a proper fight camp to prepare for a fighter in their top 15 rankings. It may take some time, though, given the pile-up of ranked matchups in the middleweight division coming down the line. However long it takes, Curtis has more than earned it.

The Scale is Manel Kape’s Biggest Obstacle

Kape (#8 CC, #14 UFC) has finished each of his last two fights with devastating first round KOs. He is very fast and very big for this division. The sky is the limit… as long as he can make weight. He missed badly his last time out against Ode’ Osbourne. This time, he made the weight, but was one of the last to weigh in, indicating he may have struggled with the cut. His performance inside the octagon speaks for itself, though. If he can make the weight, he can be a title contender in this weight class. The rest is up to him.

Cheyanne Buys is Someone to Keep an Eye On

Buys delivered her second straight win and her second straight bonus-worthy performance in the UFC. She is now creeping up the strawweight leaderboards, coming in at 23rd in the latest CC ratings. She may only be another win or two away from cracking the top 15. Her emotion after her last win show she is all-in for this sport. Her win this Saturday was even more impressive, knowing it was on very short notice. It may also have cost her opponent, Mallory Martin, a roster spot. Martin dropped to a 1473.2 CC rating after her second straight loss. Fighters below 1500 typically don’t stick around long in the UFC. We will see what happens.

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