UFC Vegas 44 features an eight-fight prelim card, the final six of which are previewed in this post. You can find the previews for the first two (including Morono vs. Gall, which was subsequently moved to the main card) here. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

Alonzo Menifield vs. William Knight (Men’s Light Heavyweight)

Alonzo Menifield

• CC Rating: 1651.2
• Division Ranking: 20th out of 40 light heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 213th out of 499 men

William Knight

• CC Rating: 1613.7
• Division Ranking: 26th out of 40 light heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 280th out of 499 men

Menifield’s time in the UFC has been streaky. Coming in a perfect 7-0 and off of two wins on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS), he won his first two fights in the promotion. Both of those wins came by first round KO, including a performance of the night showing against light heavyweight contender Paul Craig (#7 CC, #11 UFC). However, Menifield then turned it around by losing his next two at the hands of veterans Devin Clark and Ovince Saint Preux. The pendulum eventually swung back, with Menifield going 2-0 thus far in 2021. One thing that has remained consistent is Menifield’s finishing ability. Only one of his 11 career wins has come by decision.

Knight, in many ways has followed a similar career path to his opponent. Knight also came to the UFC on the heels of two wins in DWCS. He also has struggled to find consistency. He’s 2-1, alternating wins and losses since joining UFC. Knight also shares Menifield’s finishing prowess. Knight’s lone decision win in his career came at UFC 253. All of his other pro wins have come by way of knockout. Don’t expect this fight to go the distance.

Menifield’s higher caliber of opponent over his career gives him the slight edge in this one.

CC Projection: Alonzo Menifield (55.4%)

Mallory Martin vs. Cheyanne Vlismas (Women’s Strawweight)

Mallory Martin

• CC Rating: 1494.7
• Division Ranking: 41st out of 45 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 106th out of 118 women

Cheyanne Buys

• CC Rating: 1543.1
• Division Ranking: 29th out of 45 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 86th out of 118 women

Martin has had a tough go in the UFC. She dropped her debut to contender, Virna Jandiroba (#7 CC, #13 UFC) by submission via rear naked choke. She was able to rebound eight months later, finishing Hannah Cifers (who holds the dubious distinction of being the lowest rated woman in the UFC). Six months later, though, Martin was again submitted, this time by Polyana Viana. Martin has proved vulnerable on the ground against better grapplers, landing her near the bottom of the strawweight ranks.

Buys (or Vlismas) delivered a stunning KO of Gloria de Paula her last time out. The finish, coming just 60 seconds in, earned her a performance of the night bonus. This was an important rebound, as Buys dropped her UFC debut to Montserrat Ruiz. Ironically enough, Buys is taking this fight with Martin on short notice, replacing Ruiz, who pulled out with an injury. Coming almost four months after her last victory, this would be a big momentum boost. Though, Buys does not have the grappling prowess that’s proved a nightmare for Martin in the past.

Martin’s inconsistency, however, and Buys’ impressive performance of late, have Buys as a slim, but not insignificant favorite.

CC Projection: Cheyanne Vlismas (56.9%)

Jake Matthews vs. Jeremiah Wells (Men’s Welterweight)

Jake Matthews

• CC Rating: 1683.3
• Division Ranking: 37th out of 75 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 165th out of 499 men

Jeremiah Wells

• CC Rating: 1597.2
• Division Ranking: 55th out of 75 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 321st out of 499 men

Back in March, Matthews became yet another victim of undefeated rising welterweight star, Sean Brady (#10 CC, #8 UFC). However, in his 15 fight UFC career, Matthews has fought some of the very best. He’s scored victories over decorated veterans Diego Sanchez and Li Jingliang (NR CC, #13 UFC). He also faced off against the likes of the aforementioned Brady and Kevin Lee. Matthews is impressive on the ground, with seven submissions to his name.

Wells delivered an impressive upset victory over Warlley Alves at his UFC debut in June. Wells only had a 32.6 percent chance of victory according to the CC forecast in that fight. Diversity is a highlight of Wells’ game, with a near even split of knockouts and submissions over his career.

Matthews’ impressive career pedigree gives him a substantial edge in the forecast.

CC Projection: Jake Matthews (62.1%)

Bryan Barberena vs. Darian Weeks (Men’s Welterweight)

Bryan Barberena

• CC Rating: 1590.2
• Division Ranking: 58th out of 75 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 343rd out of 499 men

Darian Weeks

• CC Rating: 1550.0
• Division Ranking: 65th out of 75 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 423rd out of 499 men

It looked like this fight may not come to fruition for Barberena, as his original opponent, Matt Brown tested positive for COVID-19. However, Barberena remains on the card, looking to avenge his majority decision loss to Jason Witt back in July. Barberena has turned in an even 6-6 record in his seven-year UFC career. Despite the average record, Barberena has been in the cage with some of the best the welterweight division has. Three of his six losses have come at the hands of Vicente Luque (#1 CC, #4 UFC), Leon Edwards (#3 CC, #3 UFC), and Colby Covington (#5 CC, #1 UFC).

Weeks is the beneficiary of Brown’s departure from the card. After only a handful of fights in regional promotions in the Midwest, Weeks scored a KO victory in his LFA debut. He now gets the call to save this fight for the UFC. A win would make his case to be a mainstay in the big promotion. His record thus far has not disappointed. Weeks is a perfect 5-0 in his MMA career. All five wins have come by finish.

Barberena has too much experience for Weeks. The forecast gives him the advantage in this one.

CC Projection: Bryan Barberena (55.8%)

Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. [14] Manel Kape (Men’s Flyweight)

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

• CC Rating: 1598.4
• Division Ranking: 18th out of 32 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 315th out of 499 men

Manel Kape

• CC Rating: 1611.4
• Division Ranking: 15th out of 32 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 285th out of 499 men

Zhumagulov (pictured above right) looked to be missing out on Kazakhstan’s entry and success in the UFC. After a 13-3 record and a Fight Nights Global flyweight championship, he dropped his first two fights in the UFC. Needing a win badly, Zhumagulov delivered with a first round submission of Jerome Rivera at UFC 264. It was the first submission win of his MMA career. He also carries seven career knockouts.

Kape (#14 CC, NR UFC) has faced some adversity in his UFC career. He too dropped his first two UFC fights. He delivered a stunning flying knee KO at UFC 265, but it was somewhat marred by the fact he missed weight by a whopping three pounds. The UFC clearly has high hopes for the Portugese-Angolan Kape (pictured above left). He was thrown into the fire against the likes of Alexandre Pantoja (#2 CC, #3 UFC) and Matheus Nicolau (#8 CC, #8 UFC). He puts his place in the CC top 15 on the line in this flyweight battle.

Both men have similar pedigrees, with 1-2 UFC records and the win coming by first round finish. However, Kape has fought higher quality opponents, giving him the slight edge.

CC Projection: Manel Kape (51.9%)

Maki Pitolo vs. Dusko Todorovic (Men’s Middleweight)

Maki Pitolo

• CC Rating: 1490.9
• Division Ranking: 65th out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 483rd out of 499 men

Dusko Todorovic

• CC Rating: 1573.5
• Division Ranking: 49th out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 376th out of 499 men

If ever Pitolo needed a win in his career, it is now. In his five-fight UFC career, he is a dismal 1-4, having been finished in two of his last three. He finds himself now in the bottom 20 of all male fighters in the CC ratings. Another loss in this fight will almost surely result in him being cut from the UFC roster altogether. Pitolo’s lone UFC win came against Charles Byrd, against whom he was favored. That win sent Byrd into retirement. Pitolo needs very badly to turn his career around as soon as possible.

Todorovic is coming off a loss at the hands of Gregory Rodrigues in June. Oddly enough, Rodrigues took that fight on short notice, replacing an injured Pitolo. Todrovic will finally get his shot at Pitolo after a six month wait. Todorovic is another fighter facing potential release. He’s on a two fight losing streak. His only win in the UFC came in his debut in October of 2020 against Dequan Townsend. He’ll be facing an equally desperate Pitolo.

Todorovic has had slightly more success in the UFC than Pitolo. Boosting Todorovic is his pre-UFC record that was an impressive 9-0. He is a healthy favorite against the struggling Hawaiian.

CC Projection: Dusko Todorovic (61.7%)

Photo Credit: UFC Twitter