The main fight card for UFC Vegas 44 features a six fight card, five of which are previewed below. Mickey Gall vs. Alex Morono was a late addition to the main card and is included in our prelim projections. The main card is headlined by top bantamweight contenders, Rob Font and Jose Aldo. All projections are based off a fighter’s CC rating and their place in the CC rankings.

You can view the forecasts for the prelim card here and here.

[9] Brendan Allen vs. [13] Chris Curtis (Men’s Middleweight)

Brendan Allen

• CC Rating: 1747.2
• Division Ranking: 10th out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 76th out of 499 men

Chris Curtis

• CC Rating: 1720.8
• Division Ranking: 14th out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 110th out of 499 men

Allen (#9 CC, NR UFC) has had pretty smooth sailing this far in the UFC. He won his debut by submitting the dangerous Kevin Holland (#14 CC, #12 UFC). Overall, he’s compiled an impressive 5-1 record over his UFC career. His lone loss was in a catchweight bout with Sean Strickland (#3 CC, #7 UFC), so he is still undefeated in the UFC when fighting at 185 pounds. Allen is a threat in the ground game, with nine of his 17 career wins coming by submission.

Curtis (#13 CC, NR UFC) is just four weeks removed from his stunning KO victory at UFC 268 against Phil Hawes. Curtis broke into the CC middleweight top 15 after the win. He takes this fight on short notice after Brad Tavares (NR CC, #11 UFC) pulled out of the bout with injury. Curtis is already 34 years old and has 35 professional fights to his name. He’ll for sure be looking to stay active and stay hot to make an upward run before he retires.

Allen has more time against UFC level competition. That gives him the advantage over Curtis in the forecast.

CC Projection: Brendan Allen (53.8%)

Clay Guida vs. Leonardo Santos (Men’s Lightweight)

Clay Guida

• CC Rating: 1630.8
• Division Ranking: 43rd out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 245th out of 499 men

Leonardo Santos

• CC Rating: 1722.4
• Division Ranking: 18th out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 105th out of 499 men

This could very well be the final fight of Guida’s storied UFC career. In 15 years, he’s put together 31 fights in the UFC, going 16-15 over that span. It seems to be coming to a close, as he’s lost four out of his last six now. Guida is always dangerous on the ground, having finished 13 fights by way of submission. If this is the end of the line, Guida will be able to hold his head high, win or lose. Very few men get to make it this far.

Santos has been in the UFC since June of 2013. It wasn’t until March of this year that he registered his first loss in the octagon. Like Guida, Santos is an expert grappler, with half of his 18 career wins coming by submission. With two high level grapplers, a stand-up fight usually ensues. Santos has three career KOs, compared to Guida’s seven. Despite Guida’s long career, Santos will come in as the older fighter at 41 years old (compared to Guida’s 39). It may be late in the game for Santos to win a belt, but cracking the top 15 may not be out of the question with a 7-1-1 record thus far in the UFC.

Santos has not shown any signs of being beaten by someone at Guida’s level, especially given Guida’s recent struggles.

CC Projection: Leonardo Santos (62.9%)

[11] Jimmy Crute vs. Jamahal Hill (Men’s Light Heavyweight)

Jimmy Crute

• CC Rating: 1696.1
• Division Ranking: 12th out of 40 light heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 141st out of 499 men

Jamahal Hill

• CC Rating: 1619.0
• Division Ranking: 25th out of 40 light heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 269th out of 499 men

Crute (#11 CC, #13 UFC) had all the momentum in the world going into his fight with Anthony Smith (#2 CC, #4 UFC) at UFC 261. However, a Smith leg kick rendered Crute unable to continue after it became clear he could no longer put weight on it. However, Crute still has four UFC wins to his name, with all of them coming by finish. Crute is equally dangerous on the feet and on the ground, with five knockouts and four submissions over his twelve win career. Over over seven months off, Crute will try to resume his ascent.

Hill (NR CC, #14 UFC) had an equally upsetting loss in his last fight. He got caught in an armbar by Paul Craig (#7 CC, #11 UFC) and disturbingly dislocated his elbow due to his refusal to tap out. The loss to Craig signified his first as an MMA professional. The UFC still clearly thinks highly of Hill and he’ll have an opportunity to continue his assault on the top 15 with this bout.

Crute has faced higher caliber opponents and has a higher finishing rate. He has a significant edge over Hill.

CC Projection: Jimmy Crute (60.9%)

Rafael Fiziev vs. Brad Riddell (Men’s Lightweight)

Rafael Fiziev

• CC Rating: 1669.1
• Division Ranking: 29th out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 185th out of 499 men

Brad Riddell

• CC Rating: 1669.6
• Division Ranking: 28th out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 183rd out of 499 men

With the exception of his UFC debut against Magomed Mustafaev, Fiziev (NR CC, #14 UFC) has been perfect in his MMA career. He is riding a four-fight winning streak. The most recent of which was a controversial decision win over Bobby Green at UFC 265. In his 4-1 run in the UFC, Fiziev has only delivered one finish. This is unique, as all six of his pre-UFC fights were finish wins. Now would be as good a time as any to get another.

Riddell (NR CC, #12 UFC) has been perfect thus far in his UFC career. The New Zealand native is 4-0 with four decision wins. His most recent outing was a decision win over Drew Dober at UFC 263. His closest brush with defeat in the UFC was a split decision win over the aforementioned Mustafaev in February of last year. He’s already entered the UFC’s top 15 and wants to justify the placement, beating a dangerous finisher like Fiziev.

This could not have been matched up better than this. These two are only separated by half a point in the ratings. In a razor thin forecast, Riddell has about the slimmest edge you can have.

CC Projection: Brad Riddell (50.1%)

[4] Rob Font vs. [2] Jose Aldo (Men’s Bantamweight)

Rob Font

• CC Rating: 1808.7
• Division Ranking: 6th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 39th out of 499 men

Jose Aldo

• CC Rating: 1863.5
• Division Ranking: 3rd out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 19th out of 499 men

Font (#4 CC, #4 UFC) has been in the UFC since 2014, but really seems to have found his groove in the last three years, going 4-0 over that span. He’s claimed some big name victories, with his last two wins coming over Marlon Moraes (NR CC, #9 UFC) and former champion Cody Garbrandt (#5-flyweight CC, #7 UFC). This will be the second straight card that Font is headlining. With the bantamweight belt on the line early next year, Font wants to make it difficult for the UFC to deny him a shot.

Font’s opponent is no stranger to title pictures. Aldo (#2 CC, #5 UFC) is the former UFC featherweight champion, a belt he defended seven times (not including a subsequent interim belt win). Aldo had a rough go when he first decided to move to bantamweight. He dropped his bantamweight debut by a close split decision to the aforementioned Moraes. He then was thrust into a title shot against current interim champ Petr Yan. Aldo was badly battered before the ref finally decided to end it. However, since then, Aldo’s turned in two decisive wins, looking to earn his way back to the top and have a belt around him once again.

Aldo’s experience and recent renaissance gave the forecast enough confidence to make him the clear favorite in this exciting main event.

CC Projection: Jose Aldo (57.8%)

Photo Credit: UFC