UFC Vegas 44 features a nine-fight prelim card, four of which are previewed in this post. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

UPDATE: As of 12:30pm EST on December 2nd, Morono vs. Gall has been moved from the prelims to the main card. The preview for that fight will still be viewable in this post.

UPDATE: Murzakanov vs. Vanderaa has been cancelled after weigh-ins due to Vanderaa not being medically cleared to fight.

Louis Smolka vs. Vince Morales (Men’s Bantamweight)

Louis Smolka

• CC Rating: 1606.0
• Division Ranking: 43rd out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 297th out of 500 men

Vince Morales

• CC Rating: 1537.8
• Division Ranking: 68th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 441st out of 500 men

Smolka started his UFC career at the young age of 22 in 2014. He instantly made a splash, winning five of his first six fights. He then went on a four-fight losing streak that saw him drop fights to current flyweight champion Brandon Moreno, to title challengers Ray Borg and Tim Elliott (NR CC, #11 UFC), capped by a loss at the hands of contender Matheus Nicolau (#9 CC, #8 UFC). That streak forced him to take a break from the UFC. Now in his second stint, Smolka has been alternating wins and losses in his five fights since returning. He’s also moved up a weight class to bantamweight. He has an impressive finishing rate, with 15 finishes in his 17 career wins.

Morales has not had much luck since coming to the UFC from Bellator. He has posted only two wins in five fights in the big promotion. Overall, he’s a disappointing 3-4 since starting his MMA career 7-1. He is, however, coming off a win against Drako Rodriguez at UFC 265 in August. Morales finishes 70 percent of his wins, with five of his ten wins coming by KO and two by submission.

In a fight unlikely to go the distance, Smolka’s longevity and better finishing rate are enough to separate him from Morales. Two inconsistent fighters looking to get on a win streak.

CC Projection: Louis Smolka (59.7%)

Alex Morono vs. Mickey Gall (Men’s Welterweight)

Alex Morono

• CC Rating: 1704.2
• Division Ranking: 29th out of 75 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 131st out of 500 men

Mickey Gall

• CC Rating: 1624.5
• Division Ranking: 46th out of 75 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 260th out of 500 men

Morono (pictured above right) has been active since joining the UFC, with 16 fights since joining just under six years ago. He put his stamp on this division by defeating UFC legend Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone on short notice back in May by first round KO. Morono followed that up with a victory over David Zawada in December. He’ll look to complete a perfect 3-0 2021, with his eyes on the top 15 in 2022 if he can do it.

Gall came into the UFC in 2015 with just one professional fight to his name. Yet, he managed to win each of his first three fights in the big promotion. That includes his submission win over former WWE champion, CM Punk. Gall is an artist on the ground, with all but one of his MMA victories coming by way of submission. Since his hot start, Gall has struggled to find consistency, alternating wins and losses in his last seven fights. His most recent fight saw him get a submission win over Jordan Williams (Williams is the lowest rated welterweight in the CC ratings). He can get back on track with a step up in competition here.

Morono has fought higher quality opponents and been a tad more consistent in the win column. He’s an over 60 percent favorite to get another W Saturday.

CC Projection: Alex Morono (61.3%)

Azamat Murzakanov vs. Jared Vanderaa (Men’s Heavyweight)

Azamat Murzakanov

• CC Rating: 1620.0
• Division Ranking: 24th out of 40 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 267th out of 500 men

Jared Vanderaa

• CC Rating: 1514.1
• Division Ranking: 37th out of 40 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 467th out of 500 men

Murzakanov has been on a tear in his MMA career. After winning the Brave CF light heavyweight championship, he earned a shot on Dana White’s Contender Series. He did not disappoint there, getting a first round KO and earning a UFC contract. Murzakanov is a perfect 10-0 over his professional career, with eight wins coming by finish. For his UFC debut, he’ll take a step up to heavyweight, instead of his natural weight class at 205 pounds. The talent pool is a little thinner at heavyweight, so if he can start out with a win, it won’t be long until we see him threaten the top 15.

Vanderaa, on the other hand, is desperately in need of a win. In his 1-2 stint in the UFC, Vanderaa has been finished twice. He did, however, turn in a fight of the night win in his only UFC victory. He currently sits very near the bottom of the heavyweight division in terms of CC rating. He takes on a hot prospect in Murzakanov. While Murzakanov may have the better skill and more polished record, Vanderaa could likely use the fact that he’ll be the bigger fighter to his advantage.

Murzakanov’s recent success and Vanderaa’s struggles make the former the clear favorite coming into this one.

CC Projection: Azamat Murzakanov (64.8%)

Claudio Puelles vs. Chris Gruetzemacher (Men’s Lightweight)

Claudio Puelles

• CC Rating: 1602.9
• Division Ranking: 54th out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 305th out of 500 men

Chris Gruetzemacher

• CC Rating: 1597.6
• Division Ranking: 56th out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 320th out of 500 men

A year-and-a-half after losing the lightweight tournament for The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America, Puelles eventually earned a spot in the UFC. He has not disappointed, with three straight wins and counting. This is especially impressive given he has come in as a CC underdog in two of those three bouts. Puelles is also a threat in the ground game, with five of his ten career wins coming by submission.

Gruetzemacher is another product of The Ultimate Fighter. He fought on Team Urijah Faber on Season 22. He too did not win his season, but earned a shot in the UFC nonetheless. Gruetzemacher’s run has been a little more even-handed, with a 3-3 record in six fights. He will look to recapture the dominance he had before the UFC when he was 12-1 as a pro. At 35, there’s not a whole lot of time left to go on a run.

In a battle between two men at very different stages of their career, the algorithm favors the 25 year-old Peruvian who’s on a hot streak over the grizzled vet who’s been average of late. But just barely.

CC Projection: Claudio Puelles (50.8%)

Photo Credit: MMA Fighting