UFC Vegas 43 features an seven-fight prelim card, the final four of which are previewed in this post. You can find the previews for the first four here. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam (Men’s Lightweight)

Terrance McKinney

• CC Rating: 1579.2
• Division Ranking: 65th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 368th out of 502 men

Fares Ziam

• CC Rating: 1621.0
• Division Ranking: 49th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 269th out of 502 men

McKinney (pictured above) could not have started his UFC career any better. In his debut at UFC 263, McKinney set the record for fastest knockout by a UFC lightweight, finishing Matt Frevola in just seven seconds. The only improvement he could have made would have been not hopping up on the cage and injuring his knee on the way down. Now, “T Wrecks” is lurking around the division, waiting to make his rise. He has been calling out Dan Hooker for a while, promising Dana White he is ready for any lightweight fight on short notice. Now, he gets his second crack to continue his trek towards the upper echelons of this division.

Ziam is riding a two-fight win streak after dropping his UFC debut at UFC 242. Both of his two UFC wins have come by way of decision, however, in his ten win career prior to the UFC, only one of those wins came by decision. The rest were finishes, mostly by submission. He’s faced down two pretty dangerous opponents as of late in Jamie Mullarkey and Luigi Vendramini. He’ll face another on Saturday.

In a pretty close bout, Ziam’s experience nets him the edge over McKinney.

CC Projection: Fares Ziam (56.0%)

Loma Lookboonmee vs. Lupita Godinez (Women’s Strawweight)

Loma Lookboonmee

• CC Rating: 1563.0
• Division Ranking: 22nd out of 45 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 70th out of 119 women

Lupita Godinez

• CC Rating: 1548.1
• Division Ranking: 26th out of 45 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 80th out of 119 women

At only 25 years old, Lookboonmee has already registered three wins inside the UFC octagon. The former Invicta FC atomweight has displayed top level Muay Thai skills en route to a 3-1 record thus far, with her only loss coming to veteran Angela Hill (NR CC, #12 UFC). Lookboonmee has only one finish win in her 6-2 career, and none during her time in the UFC. She was originally meant to face Cheyanne Buys, who had to drop out after testing positive for COVID-19.

Godinez just can’t seem to stay away from the octagon these days. With this fight, she will shatter the record for quickest three fight stretch in UFC history, with three fights in the last 43 days. Her last time out, she faced Luana Carolina on short notice at flyweight, fighting on consecutive cards. She dropped that bout by decision, ending her bid for the record for quickest turnaround between two wins. Now, Godinez returns to her natural weight class, fighting again on short notice.

Both fighters are right around the same place in the divisional ranks. Lookboonmee has more success in the UFC up to this point, though, giving her the edge in the forecast.

CC Projection: Loma Lookboonmee (52.1%)

Rafa Garcia vs. Natan Levy (Men’s Lightweight)

Rafa Garcia

• CC Rating: 1568.5
• Division Ranking: 67th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 379th out of 502 men

Natan Levy

• CC Rating: 1560.0
• Division Ranking: 72nd out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 403rd out of 502 men

Garcia came into the UFC as a pretty hot commodity. He was 12-0 and had just won the Combate lightweight championship. He had all the momentum in the world behind him. However, he was thrown in to a tough matchup against Nasrat Haqparast (CC had him as a slight underdog, whereas oddsmakers had him as a +410 underdog). He dropped that bout by unanimous decision. Four months later, he came in as a favorite to turn things around against Chris Gruetzemacher. Disappointingly, he dropped that one as well. He needs to stop the slide soon to hang on in this very deep lightweight division.

Garcia’s opponent knows what it’s like to come into the UFC undefeated. Levy will make his debut Saturday, with a 6-0 record prior. The Israeli fighter finished half of those wins by submission. Levy previously fought as a featherweight, before moving up to a catchweight 160 pound fight for his appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series. He’ll make his debut as a lightweight trying to maintain his unblemished record.

The forecast hasn’t seen enough experience from Levy to make him a favorite, Garcia’s recent woes aside. It is a close matchup.

CC Projection: Rafa Garcia (51.2%)

Tucker Lutz vs. Pat Sabatini (Men’s Featherweight)

Tucker Lutz

• CC Rating: 1619.5
• Division Ranking: 36th out of 75 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 271st out of 502 men

Pat Sabatini

• CC Rating: 1640.0
• Division Ranking: 28th out of 75 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 231st out of 502 men

October 24, 2015 was the first and only time Lutz has lost a professional MMA bout. He has been on a 12 fight winning streak ever since that time, with his most recent win coming in the UFC. Eight of the 12 came inside the full distance. Lutz was originally scheduled to face Lando Vannata last week, but the UFC rebooked him for this card against Sabatini (filling in for the injured Gavin Tucker), where he’ll face an opponent with a very similar rating as his last, Kevin Aguilar.

Sabatini is on a win streak of his own, taking home each of his last four. He is a perfect 2-0 in the UFC since joining the promotion in April at UFC 261. His latest win came via a first round heel hook that earned him performance of the night honors. That is a trend for Sabatini, as he has an incredible 11 submission wins out of 15 total career victories. Few people are as dangerous on the ground.

Sabatini’s unreal finish rate gives him the slight edge over the red hot Lutz. This ought to be a great fight.

CC Projection: Pat Sabatini (52.9%)

Photo Credit: MMA Junkie – USA Today