UFC Vegas 43 features a seven-fight prelim card, three of which are previewed in this post. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

Luana Pinheiro vs. Sam Hughes (Women’s Strawweight)

Luana Pinheiro

• CC Rating: 1579.0
• Division Ranking: 20th out of 45 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 58th out of 119 women

Sam Hughes

• CC Rating: 1477.8
• Division Ranking: 42nd out of 45 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 112th out of 119 women

Pinheiro (pictured above) made her UFC debut back in May against the recently released strawweight veteran Randa Markos. Pinheiro was dominating the fight until Markos threw an illegal upkick to her face that knocked her out and ended the fight via disqualification. It certainly wasn’t the way anyone would want to win their debut, but nothing up to that point in the fight should give Pinheiro any reason to hang her head. In fact, the UFC thought highly enough of Pinheiro to give her a ranked matchup against Jessica Penne (#15 CC, #15 UFC). However, Penne pulled out with injury. This may deny Pinheiro a shot at a UFC ranking, but if she wins this fight with a finish, it will be enough for her to crack the Cage Calculus strawweight top 15 come Monday.

Hughes has had a disappointing run in the UFC thus far. She lost her debut via doctor’s stoppage to Tecia Torres (#10 CC, #8 UFC). She then went on to drop her second fight back in May to Loma Lookboonmee. After winning each of her first four professional fights, Hughes has dropped three of her most recent four. If there were ever a way to prove herself and avoid scrutiny for getting cut, it’d be defeating a hot prospect like Pinheiro.

The algorithm gives Pinheiro the edge to continue her run towards the rankings.

CC Projection: Luana Pinheiro (64.2%)

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs. Sean Soriano (Men’s Featherweight)

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

• CC Rating: 1547.6
• Division Ranking: 65th out of 75 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 423rd out of 501 men

Sean Soriano

• CC Rating: 1506.3
• Division Ranking: 71st out of 75 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 471st out of 501 men

Nuerdanbieke strung together a nice professional MMA career in China before stepping up to join the UFC. He came into his debut a respectable 19-6. He would drop that debut fight to Josh Culibao. The CC forecast had Culibao as the slight favorite in that bout. Nuerdanbieke has an impressive finishing rate, with 14 of his 19 wins coming inside the distance. Another would be a nice way to get his UFC career on track.

Soriano took over six years off from the UFC after going 0-3 to start his UFC career. In the interim, he fought primarily for CES MMA, where he would unsuccessfully fight for their featherweight championship, being submitted in the second round. In his return to the UFC at UFC 262, he would again get submitted in the second round by Christos Giagos. Soriano came in as a substantial underdog according to the CC forecast. This will be his fifth opportunity now to get a win in the UFC. It may be his last.

Soriano’s poor track record buys him no favors with the forecast. Nuerdanbieke comes in as the favorite.

CC Projection: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (55.9%)

Cody Durden vs. Aori Qileng (Men’s Flyweight)

Cody Durden

• CC Rating: 1535.3
• Division Ranking: 28th out of 32 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 445th out of 501 men

Aori Qileng

• CC Rating: 1515.0
• Division Ranking: 30th out of 32 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 466th out of 501 men

Durden has had a disappointing start to his UFC career. After scoring a draw in his debut against Chris Gutierrez, Durden was the victim of a submission of the year candidate his next time out against Jimmy Flick. Prior to joining the UFC, Durden found himself on a seven fight win streak in various other promotions. All seven of those wins had come by way of finish. The sky was the limit. In a thin flyweight division, it still could be. However, he needs to figure out how to get back to those winning ways soon. Dana White doesn’t often tolerate long winless streaks in the UFC.

Known as “The Mongolian Murderer,” Qileng put on an absolute show in his UFC debut at UFC 261. In a card that was absolutely stacked with incredible performances and high octane bouts, Qileng’s matchup with Jeff Molina ended up winning fight of the night honors. Unfortunately for him, Qileng came out as the loser in that bout. Prior, he assembled an 18-8 record, with only seven of those 18 wins coming by finish. The Chinese fighter can be exciting and will look to get his first UFC win against slightly easier competition this time.

In a bout between men looking for a win, the forecast tips Durden to take it home.

CC Projection: Cody Durden (52.9%)

Photo Credit: UFC