MMA fans were given another treat Saturday evening with this fight card. Nine of eleven fights ended with a finish. The main event between top featherweight contenders, Max Holloway (pictured above) and Yair Rodriguez will be mentioned as a fight of the year contender (though Gaethje vs. Chandler might make that a difficult feat to achieve this year). The depth of a number of divisions was on display and we likely got a glimpse of at least two fighters who will challenge for a title in the near future.
Over the eleven fight card, Cage Calculus favorites went 8-3, bringing the forecast favorites’ overall record to 69-38-2 since the launch of Cage Calculus. You can look back at the previews and projections for this fight card here and here.
With so many fighters standing out, there are a number of takeaways. So, without further ado, here’s what we learned from UFC Vegas 42.
A Title Fight is the Only Option for Max Holloway
According to the Cage Calculus fighter ratings, no champion and #1 contender have a higher combined CC rating than the men’s featherweight division does with the champ Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway (#1 CC, #1 UFC). After losing the rematch at UFC 251 last year in a controversial split decision, Holloway could have sat out and demanded his next fight be a trilogy for the belt. However, he’s instead fought two intense contenders in Calvin Kattar (#7 CC, #5 UFC) and Yair Rodriguez (#13 CC, #3 UFC). In those fights, Holloway put on striking clinics, landing with unheard of volume. He has proven the only capable competition is Volkanovski.
UFC boss Dana White acknowledged as much in his post-fight press conference. Holloway is someone Volkanovski is going to have to definitively dispose of to move on in this division. Roughly 140 points separate Holloway from the next highest contender, Brian Ortega (#2 CC, #2 UFC). Ortega is coming off a loss in his bid for the featherweight crown back in September. There truly is no one else that makes sense at this point.
Yair Rodriguez is Due for a Boost
Yes, Rodriguez may be #13 in the Cage Calculus featherweight rankings, but that does not tell the whole story. He took the undisputed #1 contender five rounds and it was by no means a blowout. He currently sits as the #3 contender in the official UFC rankings. After that performance, subjectively, it’s hard to argue. Dana White will more than likely give Rodriguez another top contender in his next fight. Given that all things eventually revert to the mean, the discrepancy between Rodriguez’s CC rating and his impressive performances will likely rectify soon. He’s proven he can compete with the names ahead of him and his CC rating will reflect that once he starts winning again.
Ben Rothwell is Due for a Slide
The CC algorithm values experience in the octagon and Rothwell (#11 CC, NR UFC) had it in spades coming in. Not to mention, he’d won three of his last four and carried some of the best names in the division’s history on his resume. That was enough for his CC rating to make him the #5 contender coming in. Less than a minute later, that rating proved to be inflated and reality corrected itself (Herb Dean’s questionable stoppage notwithstanding). Rothwell still finds himself buoyed by his experience, maintaining a spot in the CC top 15. It is very possible his rating will be used as a step ladder for an up-and-comer to springboard themselves into the top 15. But, Rothwell will now need a win to maintain his place. At 40, he’ll need to find the same resurgence Andrei Arlovski (#15 CC, NR UFC) has.
The UFC Should Keep the Women’s Featherweight Division
The main card also featured a fight in the women’s featherweight division, a weight class that only currently boasts seven fighters. The thin pool of fighters and the fact that the UFC doesn’t even have a formal ranking for this division have led Dana White to speculate it may be scrapped altogether. Saturday, former championship contender Felicia Spencer (#2 CC) put on a dominant all-around performance before scoring a TKO in the final round. This win showcased Spencer’s skill, especially when remembering she was able to last five rounds with the double champ, Amanda Nunes. It also demonstrated by proxy the skill of a fighter like Norma Dumont (#4 CC), who defeated Spencer in May and then went on to defeat Aspen Ladd (#3 CC) a month ago. While thin, this division boasts plenty of talent. This fight proved compelling MMA can happen at this weight class. The success and popularity of fighters like Kayla Harrison in PFL and former UFC champion Cris Cyborg now in the Bellator promotion show that there can be a good market for a women’s featherweight division in the UFC.
Joel Alvarez is Dangerous (If He Can Make Weight)
Alvarez (#10 CC, #15 UFC) displayed incredible striking to KO Thiago Moises in the first round, moving his career record to 19-2. All 19 wins have come by finish, with a staggering 16 submission wins. He dispatched Moises far more easily than top contender Islam Makhachev (#5 CC, #4 UFC) did earlier this year. However, this is the second consecutive fight where Alvarez missed weight. He currently sits as the #10 contender in the CC lightweight rankings with a 1757.2 CC rating. If Dana White determines his weight cut woes to be enough of an issue to move him up to welterweight, Alvarez’s rating would not be enough to crack the top 15 in that weight class. Alvarez is a talent in multiple facets of the game. That much was clear. He needs to conquer the scale before conquering the lightweight division.
Andrea Lee Bullied Herself Into the Flyweight Title Picture
Lee (#5 CC, #7 UFC) turned in the best performance of her career, wearing down Cynthia Calvillo (NR CC, #9 UFC) before she had to finally call it quits from the stool. The flyweight title picture is fairly wide open given how convincingly champion Valentina Shevchenko has dispatched any and all challengers. The consensus was that the winner of next weekend’s Joanne [Calder]Wood (NR CC, #5 UFC) vs. Taila Santos (#2 CC, #10 UFC) would have the inside track. Lee’s dominance and marketability (with her trademark cowboy hat and the nickname ‘KGB’) will most certainly force Dana White and the UFC matchmakers to give her a look regardless of how the Wood/Santos fight goes on Saturday.
Photo Credit: MMA Junkie

