The main fight card for UFC Vegas 42 features a five fight card. The card will see longtime heavyweight veteran Ben Rothwell step back into the octagon. It is headlined by a featherweight fight former champion Max Holloway (pictured left) and top contender Yair Rodriguez (pictured right). All projections are based off a fighter’s CC rating and their place in the CC rankings.

You can view the forecasts for the prelim card here.

Song Yadong vs. [8] Julio Arce (Men’s Bantamweight)

Song Yadong

• CC Rating: 1685.2
• Division Ranking: 24th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 162nd out of 503 men

Julio Arce

• CC Rating: 1748.1
• Division Ranking: 10th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 75th out of 503 men

Yadong (NR CC, #15 UFC) is coming off a split decision win over Casey Kenney at UFC 265 in August. That bout was incredibly close and some thought Kenney pulled through. Yadong is looking to back up the win and his subsequent entry into the UFC’s top 15 with a more decisive win this time out. Yadong is less than a year-and-a-half removed from a fight of the night victory over Marlon Vera (#6 CC, #11 UFC). Yadong is only 23 years old, so the sky is the limit for this prospect if he can string together another couple of wins.

Arce (#8 CC, NR UFC) came into the UFC after a win on Dana White’s Contender Series in August of 2017. Prior to that, his career consisted almost entirely of title fights. He was a multi-divisional champion in the Ring of Combat promotion. There he won the bantamweight and featherweight belts and strung together seven title defenses between the two. His UFC career has been a little more mixed, going 4-2 over six fights. Three of his four wins came by finish.

This fight comes between Arce, whose ranked by CC but not the UFC, and Yadong, ranked by the UFC but not the CC. Naturally, the algorithm gives preference to its own rankings. Arce comes in as the favorite to take Yadong’s number.

CC Projection: Julio Arce (59.0%)

Miguel Baeza vs. Khaos Williams (Men’s Welterweight)

Miguel Baeza

• CC Rating: 1663.1
• Division Ranking: 42nd out of 75 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 199th out of 503 men

Khaos Williams

• CC Rating: 1666.9
• Division Ranking: 40th out of 75 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 192nd out of 503 men

Baeza comes into this bout after suffering his first professional defeat at the hands of Santiago Ponzinibbio (#7 CC, #13 UFC). Prior to that, he held a perfect 10-0 record, with three of those wins being in the UFC. Two of those wins notched him a performance of the night bonus. All came by way of second round stoppage. Baeza promises to be an exciting fight, win or lose. He’s been an underdog in each of his fights according to the forecast, with the exception of his UFC debut against Hector Aldana.

Speaking of exciting fighters, Williams stormed into the UFC with two straight first round KOs, both of which came in under 30 seconds. After dropping a bout to Michel Pereira, Williams rebounded with a win over Matthew Semelsberger. Williams is certainly a rising star to keep an eye on in the stacked welterweight division.

The tale of the tape promises fireworks, as does the forecast. These two are almost even, with the slimmest of edges going to Williams.

CC Projection: Khaos Williams (50.5%)

[3] Felicia Spencer vs. [5] Leah Letson (Women’s Featherweight)

Felicia Spencer

• CC Rating: 1604.4
• Division Ranking: 4th out of 7 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 42nd out of 121 women

Leah Letson

• CC Rating: 1534.8
• Division Ranking: 6th out of 7 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 94th out of 121 women

The featherweight division seems to be getting a breath of life recently, with the injection of Aspen Ladd (#2 CC) and the potential entry of former bantamweight champion Holly Holm (#1 CC). If there’s a renaissance of this division that seemed all but doomed months ago, Spencer (#3 CC) will likely be a part of it. Spencer took the champion Amanda Nunes all five rounds last year, an accomplishment in itself. Spencer then came out and dropped a split decision to Norma Dumont (#4 CC). That loss seems more forgivable after seeing how dominantly Dumont defeated Ladd last month. If the featherweight belt is sticking around the UFC, Spencer may not be far off from another crack at it.

It has been almost three years since Letson (#5 CC) last stepped into the UFC octagon. After winning her UFC debut by split decision, Letson suffered a number of health issues that kept her out of the cage. She has been open about the toll the three-year layoff has taken on her emotional and physical health. Now, she is finally ready to step in and defend her undefeated 1-0 UFC record against the former title challenger. In a division as wide open as you can get, with only seven fighters, it doesn’t take too many wins to say your in the title conversation. Crazier things have happened.

Spencer is still a top featherweight, despite two straight losses. The model doesn’t foresee a third.

CC Projection: Felicia Spencer (59.9%)

[5] Ben Rothwell vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (Men’s Heavyweight)

Ben Rothwell

• CC Rating: 1747.3
• Division Ranking: 7th out of 39 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 76th out of 503 men

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

• CC Rating: 1614.5
• Division Ranking: 24th out of 39 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 283rd out of 503 men

Rothwell (#5 CC, NR UFC) is a legend of the sport. He made his UFC debut at UFC 104 in October of 2009 against then-future champ, Cain Velasquez. His UFC debut marked his 37th professional MMA bout. Rothwell has since logged 16 fights in the UFC, marking a 9-7 record in the promotion. The record may be deceiving, as Rothwell has been locked in the cage with some of the best. Rothwell seems determined to be a part of the age resurgence, having won three of his last four, with the one defeat being by decision against Marcin Tybura (#6 CC, #9 UFC). “Big Ben” has far too much experience to be counted out until he officially calls it quits.

Since his victory over Igor Pokrajac in December of 2014, De Lima has alternated wins and losses over his last 11 fights, going 6-5 and never having one or lost more than once in a row. A former light heavyweight, De Lima made the jump in 2018 after being submitted by Ovince Saint-Preux. De Lima doesn’t often go to the judges’ scorecards, with only four of his 25 career fights going the distance.

The algorithm puts a heavy weight (no pun intended) on experience and Rothwell has oodles. He comes in as the steep favorite.

CC Projection: Ben Rothwell (68.2%)

[1] Max Holloway vs. [9] Yair Rodriguez (Men’s Featherweight)

Max Holloway

• CC Rating: 1956.9
• Division Ranking: 2nd out of 75 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 6th out of 503 men

Yair Rodriguez

• CC Rating: 1737.9
• Division Ranking: 10th out of 75 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 87th out of 503 men

August 17, 2013 was the last time Holloway (#1 CC, #1 UFC) lost to a featherweight not named Alexander Volkanovski. Of course, that featherweight bout in 2013 was against none other than Conor McGregor (#4 CC, #9 UFC) himself. Since then, Holloway has been nearly flawless. He even delivered a fight of the night bid that came up just short to claim the interim lightweight title against Dustin Poirier (#1 CC, #1 UFC). When Holloway is at his best, there are few men who have a prayer at beating him. His last time out, he delivered a performance for the ages, shattering the UFC’s record for most strikes landed in a single fight. The self-proclaimed “best boxer in the UFC” promised to break his own record and secure a third matchup with the champion Volkanovski.

Having something to say about that will be Rodriguez (#9 CC, #3 UFC). Rodriguez is another fighter who has been near flawless during his time in the UFC. His only defeat in his seven years in the promotion came to Frankie Edgar (#10 CC, #12 UFC), who’s since moved down to bantamweight. Rodriguez has not been in the cage for just over two years now. We’ll see if there’s any ring rust, as he’ll need to be as close to perfect to knock off the top contender Holloway and earn a title shot of his own.

The algorithm heavily favors Holloway, and anyone who’s seen him fight lately can hardly disagree.

CC Projection: Max Holloway (77.9%)

Photo Credit: UFC.com