The preliminary fight card for UFC Vegas 42 features a six fight card. The card features a bout between ranked women’s flyweights, Cynthia Calvillo and Andrea Lee (pictured above). It is headlined by two men, Thiago Moises and Joel Alvarez, looking to crack the lightweight top 15. All projections are based off a fighter’s CC rating and their place in the CC rankings.

A new feature of these previews is the bracketed number next to certain fighters’ names in bold. If a fighter has that number, that indicates that they are a ranked fighter according to the Cage Calculus top 15 rankings for their division. Any fighter ranked in either the Cage Calculus rankings or the UFC rankings will be given a parenthetical with their CC ranking and their UFC ranking listed the first time they’re mentioned in a preview.

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. [15] Da Un Jung (Men’s Light Heavyweight)

Kennedy Nzechukwu

• CC Rating: 1628.8
• Division Ranking: 24th out of 41 light heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 258th out of 503 men

Da Un Jung

• CC Rating: 1675.4
• Division Ranking: 16th out of 41 light heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 176th out of 503 men

The Nigerian Nzechukwu entered the UFC and was thrown promptly into the fire. He faced off against the dangerous Paul Craig (#7 CC, #11 UFC). Nzechukwu was submitted in the final minute of that fight. Since then, he’s delivered three straight victories, earning one performance of the night bonus and one fight of the night bonus along the way. That Nzechukwu came right in against a talent like Craig shows how highly the UFC values his talent. He’s now getting on a streak that just might earn his way into the top 15 soon enough.

Jung (#15 CC, NR UFC) comes in on quite the streak of his own. He is 13-0-1 in his last 14 fights. He is still undefeated in his four-fight UFC career. Of his 14 career wins, only two have come by way of decision. At only 27 years old, Jung holds a bright future in this division if he can continue his winning ways. Jung has been a favorite in three of his four UFC bouts, only having come in as an underdog in his debut against Khadis Ibragimov.

In this battle of up-and-coming light heavyweight prospects, Jung carries the momentum and the algorithm makes him a favorite in this exciting opener.

CC Projection: Da Un Jung (56.7%)

Rafael Alves vs. Marc Diakiese (Men’s Lightweight)

Rafael Alves

• CC Rating: 1499.8
• Division Ranking: 83rd out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 480th out of 503 men

Marc Diakiese

• CC Rating: 1660.9
• Division Ranking: 35th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 202nd out of 503 men

Alves is still looking for his first win in the UFC after dropping his debut to Damir Ismagulov (#10 CC, NR UFC) back in May. According to the CC forecaster, Ismagulov is a top 10 lightweight contender, so this may be a forgivable defeat. However, at age 31, Alves’ career has been relatively average. He holds a 19-10 career record. One point in his favor is his ability to vary his finishes. He has seven wins by KO/TKO and another seven by submission. This will make it difficult for any opponent to figure him out inside the octagon.

Diakiese came into the UFC an undefeated 9-0 and right off an impressive title run as the BAMMA lightweight champion. He backed that up by starting his UFC career 3-0, including a highlight reel KO of Teemu Packalen within 30 seconds of the first round. However, when Diakiese stepped up the competition, he rattled off three losses to Drakkar Klose, Dan Hooker (#14 CC, #8 UFC), and Nasrat Haqparast. He’s turned it around since, going 2-1 in his last three. This will be his first fight since July of last year.

Diakiese has the far more impressive resume. The algorithm reflects this by making him a heavy favorite in this bout.

CC Projection: Marc Diakiese (71.7%)

Cortney Casey vs. Liana Jojua (Women’s Flyweight)

Cortney Casey

• CC Rating: 1527.3
• Division Ranking: 38th out of 43 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 100th out of 121 women

Liana Jojua

• CC Rating: 1515.1
• Division Ranking: 39th out of 43 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 104th out of 121 women

Casey has been in the UFC for over six years now. During that time, she’s turned in a rather disappointing 5-8 record, including 1-2 since her return to the flyweight division in May 2020. Given her wealth of experience, though, Casey has fought some of the best the UFC has to offer in multiple weight classes. That experience may serve her well against a relative newcomer like Jojua.

Jojua came into the UFC as a former bantamweight champion in the FNG promotion. She lost her debut to Sarah Moras, who missed weight badly ahead of the fight. Jojua decided to make the move down to flyweight. The move looked to pay dividends as she delivered a first round submission against Diana Belbita. However, she was promptly stopped her next time out against Miranda Maverick at UFC 254. Maverick’s power gave Jojua a gruesome nose injury that forced the fight to be stopped and required six stitches. This will be Jojua’s first fight since.

Casey’s experience and strength of schedule gives her the slight edge in the algorithm for this bout.

CC Projection: Cortney Casey (51.8%)

Sean Woodson vs. Collin Anglin (Men’s Featherweight)

Sean Woodson

• CC Rating: 1564.9
• Division Ranking: 61st out of 75 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 394th out of 503 men

Collin Anglin

• CC Rating: 1522.0
• Division Ranking: 70th out of 75 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 457th out of 503 men

Woodson saw his undefeated pro record evaporate in June 2020 when he suffered his first defeat to Julian Erosa. However, he would recover with a split decision win against Youssef Zalal almost a year later. Woodson has bounced around weight classes over his career, usually alternating between lightweight and featherweight, but getting as high as middleweight. He’ll return to 145 pounds for this one.

Anglin suffered a KO loss at the hands of Melsik Baghdasaryan in his UFC debut back in July. He will turn it around and look for his first UFC victory in this one. It won’t get easier, as Woodson is rated slightly higher than Baghdasaryan was at the time of the last fight. Anglin however, does have decent finishing ability, having finished five of his eight wins. Woodson only has three career finishes. If the fight ends early, chances are Anglin will have the upper hand.

Woodson’s recent wins give him the leg up on Anglin in this one.

CC Projection: Sean Woodson (56.1%)

[9] Cynthia Calvillo vs. [8] Andrea Lee (Women’s Flyweight)

Cynthia Calvillo

• CC Rating: 1617.7
• Division Ranking: 10th out of 43 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 34th out of 121 women

Andrea Lee

• CC Rating: 1624.5
• Division Ranking: 9th out of 43 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 32nd out of 121 women

After having struggles making weight at strawweight, Calvillo (#9 CC, #5 UFC) made the jump up to flyweight, looking to make a stamp on a division that’s wide open underneath champion Valentina Shevchenko. After winning her UFC flyweight debut against Jessica Eye (NR CC, #8 UFC), Calvillo then dropped two straight to Katlyn Chookagian (#3 CC, #2 UFC) and Jessica Andrade (#1 CC, #1 UFC). Granted, those are two of the scariest flyweights out there. Calvillo will aim a little lower for this bout, trying to re-establish herself near the top of the division. Calvillo is taking this fight on short notice after the aforementioned Eye dropped out last month.

Lee (#8 CC, #12 UFC) started her UFC career 3-0 before then dropping her next three bouts (two of them by split decision). She then turned it around by securing a submission win over Antonina Shevchenko at UFC 262 in May. Lee came in as a hot prospect in this division. Given how the champion Shevchenko has run through this division, it may not take much more than a win or two to get Lee into title contention. An impressive win might even make her next up before the winner of Joanne Calderwood (NR CC, #6 UFC) vs. Taila Santos (#2 CC, #9 UFC) next week.

This is a high octane flyweight matchup, with Lee getting only the slimmest of edges by the algorithm. Perhaps the actual gap is wider, considering Calvillo will have a limited camp.

CC Projection: Andrea Lee (51.0%)

Thiago Moises vs. Joel Alvarez (Men’s Lightweight)

Thiago Moises

• CC Rating: 1687.4
• Division Ranking: 24th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 157th out of 503 men

Joel Alvarez

• CC Rating: 1723.6
• Division Ranking: 17th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 106th out of 503 men

Moises (NR CC, #15 UFC) had just cracked the UFC top 15 and had a chance to make a statement against Islam Makhachev (#5 CC, #4 UFC) his last time out. However, Moises succumbed to a rear naked choke and quickly fell back out of the rankings after that. Moises has delivered a 4-3 record in the UFC, but is undefeated when he’s not facing a fighter ranked in the CC lightweight top 10. His strength of schedule thus far has been quite heavy. He’ll turn himself around in just under four months to try and get a number back next to his name.

Alvarez is another lightweight, positioned just outside the top 15, looking to earn a number. His only loss in the UFC came at the hands of the aforementioned Ismagulov. He is on a three-fight winning streak. A win against Moises no doubt positions the Spaniard to fight against one of the UFC’s top 15 lightweights his next time out.

Alvarez has always followed the CC forecast, being 3-0 as a favorite and 0-1 as an underdog. That bodes well for him, as the algorithm gives him a slim edge over Moises.

CC Projection: Joel Alvarez (55.2%)

Photo Credit: MMA Mania