The UFC’s return to Madison Square Garden was one for the ages. UFC 268 set a record for most significant strikes landed over an entire UFC event. In the end, both champions successfully defended their belts in bouts that were close and very technical in nature. And, in the unofficial co-main event, Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler delivered what will likely go down as the UFC’s fight of the year. There are no shortage of storylines coming out of this one.

The Cage Calculus favorites came out with a 6-8 record across the 14 fights of the evening, bringing CC favorites to a 61-35-2 record overall since the launch of the site. A friendly reminder that the projections indicate win probabilities and are not absolute predictions. You can look back at the previews for UFC 268 here, here, and here.

So, without further ado, here is what we learned at UFC 268:

Nothing New About Kamaru Usman

Usman came into the fight as CC’s #2 overall men’s fighter (rated #1 pound for pound by the UFC). He came in as the heavy favorite. Nothing happened Saturday night that would push us off of either conclusion. He is a step above everyone else in that division. As we mentioned in our previews, Usman is just the seventh man to ever achieve a CC rating above 2000. He’s not just vying to be the best welterweight in the world, he’s vying to be the best welterweight of all time (a title that UFC boss Dana White seems to think he’s already attained). Usman did drop a couple of rounds to Colby Covington, but nobody watching had any doubts about who’s name would be coming out of Bruce Buffer’s mouth when all was said and done. Usman continues his stretch of dominance.

The only thing that remains unclear is when he will fight next and against whom. He indicated he’s going to be taking some time to spend with his family, so it might be a while. If Leon Edwards beats Jorge Masvidal at UFC 269 in December, he’d be the logical pick from a resume perspective. Another option would be Vicente Luque, who’s riding a hot streak of his own and sits as the #1 welterweight contender in the CC rankings (#4 in the UFC rankings).

“Thug Rose” is Approaching All-Time Great Status

Prior to UFC 268, only two strawweights had ever eclipsed 1800 in the CC ratings: Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Zhang Weili. With her win over Weili on Saturday, Rose Namajunas became the third and holds a 4-0 combined record against the other two. She is just the seventh woman overall to join the CC 1800 club. Namajunas is often overlooked when it comes to imagining the Mount Rushmore of women’s MMA. She’s come in as an underdog in all six of her career title fights. Yet, she’s won four of them and still reigns as the best strawweight in the world.

The chart above tracks the careers of the UFC’s three female champions. Namajunas hovered below or around the UFC women’s average for much of the early stages of her career. However, her first title fight came when she was just 22 years old. Having grown into herself a bit more, it’s becoming clear she is approaching the likes of Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko. She may not be as dominant as either of those two yet, but she is fighting in a much deeper, more talented weight class at the moment. It’s time she started getting mentioned in these all-time great conversations. A couple more title wins, and she will be right in the heart of it.

Zhang Weili is Still the #1 Contender at Strawweight

This fight was very close. One could be forgiven for having scored the fight 48-47 for Weili. In the end, Cage Calculus believes the better fighter got the decision in this, but it was by no means assured. Having lost two straight to Namajunas, it will definitely take at least a couple of wins for Weili to get back into the strawweight title picture. Carla Esparza and Marina Rodriguez are waiting in the wings, while the return of former champion Jedrzejczyk seems not too far over the horizon. Another former champion, Jessica Andrade, has expressed a desire to return to the strawweight division to try to regain the belt after moving up to fight Shevchenko for the flyweight title. There are too many cooks in the kitchen at 115 pounds. In terms of skill and talent, however, Weili is the next best at strawweight until someone proves otherwise. Her next fight will be a must watch.

Justin Gaethje Should Fight for the Title Next

It almost feels wrong to categorize this as “something we learned” from UFC 268, given that this truth was apparent to many already. However, it’s now an undeniable reality that if Gaethje does not get the winner of Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier at UFC 269, a severe injustice has been done. He now sits as the #2 contender in CC’s lightweight rankings (also #2 in the UFC’s rankings). He was leapfrogged by Michael Chandler (CC’s #11 contender and UFC’s #5) for a crack at the vacant belt in May. Gaethje proved Saurday that that was a mistake and one that should not be repeated in the near future. When the lightweight belt goes on the line again in 2022, Gaethje needs to be a part of that fight.

Michael Chandler is Underrated

This is an odd take after a loss, but the CC algorithm was unimpressed with Chandler’s 1-1 UFC record coming into this fight and had him just on the edge of the lightweight top 10. Gaethje came in as a sizable favorite over Chandler in this one. While Gaethje did end up winning the fight, it was an all-out war and it looked for a moment as if Chandler might secure a first round KO. Chandler very clearly belonged in the cage with someone like Gaethje. While his CC rating will decrease after the loss, it’s clear Chandler is better than his ranking might suggest at the moment. Interestingly enough, Chandler appeared to call dibs on Conor McGregor’s return fight in 2022. That would be quite the matchup.

Photo Credit: The Athletic