The UFC 268 pay-per-view card at Madison Square Garden is a five fight card across five weight classes. It gets kicked off by a lightweight battle between Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler. It is capped by two title fight rematches; the first for the women’s strawweight championship between champion Rose Namajunas and challenger Zhang Weili. The main event is for the men’s welterweight title between champion Kamaru Usman and challenger Colby Covington. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

You can also view the forecasts for both prelim cards here and here.

Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler (Men’s Lightweight)

Justin Gaethje

• CC Rating: 1891.4
• Division Ranking: 3rd out of 85 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 11th out of 505 men

Michael Chandler

• CC Rating: 1771.5
• Division Ranking: 11th out of 85 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 55th out of 505 men

Gaethje has fought in the UFC eight times. In only one of those fights has he failed to turn in a performance of the night or fight of the night bonus. Gaethje wants to make a run back at UFC gold after he failed to unify his interim title when he was swiftly submitted by then-champ Khabib Nurmagomedov. Gaethje is 5-3 in the UFC, but those losses have come against the aforementioned former champ, Nurmagomedov, former interim champion and current #1 contender Dustin Poirier, and former undisputed champion Eddie Alvarez. Gaethje has fought the absolute best the UFC has to offer. His crowning achievement was his TKO victory over Tony Ferguson to win the interim belt. There is little doubt that if Gaethje wins this, he will fight the winner of the lightweight title fight in December.

Chandler is in the same situation of making his first octagon appearance since losing his bid for the title. Chandler had Charles Oliveira in deep waters before getting caught in the second round. He too is trying to earn a second title shot with a victory. He impressed everyone in his UFC debut by knocking out Dan Hooker in the first round. Prior to joining the UFC, he was the most dominant lightweight in Bellator history, winning six lightweight title fights during his time there. Like Gaethje, he possesses one punch KO power in his hands.

In what is almost a sure bet to be fight of the night, Gaethje comes in as a heavy favorite. The forecast is impressed with his wins, finishing power, and strength of schedule. Meanwhile, Chandler’s Bellator success isn’t enough to put him over the top of Gaethje considering he is only 1-1 in the big promotion. He can prove doubters (and the algorithm) wrong in New York Saturday.

CC Projection: Justin Gaethje (66.6%)

Shane Burgos vs. Billy Quarantillo (Men’s Featherweight)

Shane Burgos

• CC Rating: 1660.3
• Division Ranking: 24th out of 75 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 202nd out of 505 men

Billy Quarantillo

• CC Rating: 1696.9
• Division Ranking: 19th out of 75 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 138th out of 505 men

His last time out, Burgos was the victim of one of the more bizarre knockouts we’ve seen. He got caught by an Edson Barboza punch right on the temple. Burgos seemed to take it well, but after a few seconds of hesitation, his legs gave out as if it took his body a minute to register the punch had landed. That marked his second straight defeat. His previous defeat was to Cage Calculus’ #3 ranked featherweight contender, Josh Emmett. Prior to that, Burgos had won six out of his first seven UFC bouts. Don’t let this current losing streak fool you. Burgos is on his way up in the division and happened to get stopped by two of the best featherweights out there.

Quarantillo promised he would be a household name after this one. He is certainly a name to watch in the division, as he’s won four of his first five fights in the UFC. He now gets the chance to put a number next to his name (likely by both CC and the UFC) with a win in this one. Three of his four wins have come by way of finish. He also boasted titles in both the KOTC and SOFC promotions prior to joining the UFC. According to the forecast, Burgos would be Quarantillo’s highest rated victory if he pulls it out.

Both fighters are just on the outside of the rankings. Quarantillo’s recent momentum and past title experience give him the slight edge in the forecast.

CC Projection: Billy Quarantillo (55.2%)

Frankie Edgar vs. Marlon Vera (Men’s Bantamweight)

Frankie Edgar

• CC Rating: 1777.4
• Division Ranking: 8th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 52nd out of 505 men

Marlon Vera

• CC Rating: 1734.7
• Division Ranking: 13th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 90th out of 505 men

Edgar is truly one of the legends of the game. He held the UFC’s lightweight title for almost two years from 2010-2012. He then challenged for the featherweight title on three separate occasions (against Jose Aldo twice and Max Holloway once), though coming up short each time. Edgar is now seeking to make his mark in a third weight class at bantamweight. He won his bantamweight debut in a fight of the night bout against Pedro Munhoz. However, in his second time out, he got caught by a flying knee from recent interim title challenger Cory Sandhagen. That knee will no doubt be a KO of the year contender. Edgar wants to prove that is not the last word on him and he has one run left in him in the twilight of his career.

Vera, on the other hand, is looking to begin his run towards a UFC title. He made his mark in the division by becoming the first (and only thus far) man to defeat Sean O’Malley. He then suffered a very close decision loss to Jose Aldo before recovering with a win over Davey Grant. He is now #11 in the CC bantamweight rankings and #13 in the official UFC ranks.

Edgar’s only lost to Sandhagen in the bantamweight division. The forecast thinks that means it’s too premature to say he’s over the hill. The algorithm says he ought to be the favorite here.

CC Projection: Frankie Edgar (56.1%)

Rose Namajunas vs. Zhang Weili (Women’s Strawweight Championship)

Rose Namajunas

• CC Rating: 1794.6
• Division Ranking: 2nd out of 47 strawweights (Champion)
• Overall Ranking: 4th out of 121 women

Zhang Weili

• CC Rating: 1808.7
• Division Ranking: 1st out of 47 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 3rd out of 121 women

When Namajunas wins title fights, she wins them in dazzling fashion. Her first title win came against the seemingly unbeatable Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Namajunas finished her in the first round in one of the biggest female upsets in history according to Cage Calculus (Namajunas had only a 24.7% chance according to the CC forecast). After defeating Joanna again, Namajunas lost the title to Jessica Andrade in a fight she was dominating until Andrade slammed her on her head, knocking her out. Namajunas would go on to avenge that loss at UFC 251. She then knocked out Zhang Weili in under two minutes to regain her title (the CC forecast gave her only a 30.2% chance in that fight). It has been four-and-a-half years since Namajunas fought someone not ranked inside the top 6 in the Cage Calculus women’s overall rankings.

Weili came into the UFC on an absolute tear. She was the top strawweight in China and was riding a 16 fight winning streak into her UFC debut. She continued by winning her first three against Danielle Taylor, Jessica Aguilar, and Tecia Torres. This led to her earning a title shot against then-champion Andrade. Weili finished the fight with a flurry of punches in just 42 seconds. Her first title defense was a fight of the year contender against the aforementioned Jedrzejczyk by split decision. Then came the fight against Namajunas at UFC 261. Here she is now, having earned an immediate rematch, looking to once again reclaim strawweight gold. Weili has moved training camps to train with former men’s flyweight champs Deiveson Figueiredo and Henry Cejudo. This suggests she may take a grappling heavy approach.

The women’s strawweight division is the only women’s division that seems to change hands. The flyweights have been ruled by Valentina Shevchenko for three years. Amanda Nunes has reigned over the featherweight title for almost three years and the bantamweight title for well over five. The competition at strawweight is stiff and no one (save for perhaps Jedrzejczyk’s early run) has established the same dominance. As of now, the strawweight division is one of the few where the CC forecaster has the champion as not the highest rated fighter (men’s flyweight and lightweight being the other two). The forecast gives Weili the slightest of edges to unseat Namajunas and take back her title.

CC Projection: Zhang Weili (52.0%)

Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington (Men’s Welterweight Championship)

Kamaru Usman

• CC Rating: 2003.2
• Division Ranking: 1st out of 75 welterweights (Champion)
• Overall Ranking: 2nd out of 505 men

Colby Covington

• CC Rating: 1840.0
• Division Ranking: 4th out of 75 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 26th out of 505 men

Usman is no longer vying for just the welterweight title. He is quickly entering the conversation for greatest mixed martial artist of all time. He is just the seventh man to eclipse a 2000 rating by the Cage Calculus forecaster (after Georges St-Pierre, Anderson Silva, Jon Jones, Daniel Cormier, Stipe Miocic, and Khabib Nurmagomedov). He is a staggering 14-0 since joining the UFC. He took the title from Tyron Woodley, a dominant champion in his own right, and has successfully defended it three times, securing finishes in three of the four defenses. Since moving to train with coach Trevor Wittman, Usman has become a dangerous striker as well as an issue in the ground game. He’s as well-rounded a fighter as exists in the world right now.

One could argue the only time Usman’s been in danger of losing was in his first matchup against Covington. Many fan and expert scorecards had that fight at two rounds a piece going into the final round. Some even went so far as to say it was 3-1 Covington. Usman would take it out of the judges’ hands with a TKO win and a dispute over whether or not he broke Covington’s jaw in the process. Covington bounced back by securing a TKO of his own over Woodley, boosting his UFC record to 11-2 and earning a rematch with the champion. Covington has as many submissions as knockouts and might have something to say about Usman’s well-rounded game.

Usman’s dominance is just too pronounced at this point that any algorithm that makes him an underdog against anyone not named Jon Jones ought to be questioned. Covington stands to gain more than a few CC points with the upset, and it would be quite a big one.

CC Projection: Kamaru Usman (71.9%)

Photo Credit: UFC.com