The UFC 268 slate continues with a five fight prelim card that includes three fights in the middleweight division. It is headlined by the UFC debut of Alex Pereira, the only man to have ever knocked out Israel Adesanya in any combat sport, which he did when they were both on the kickboxing circuit. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

You can also view the forecasts for the early prelim fights here.

Jordan Williams vs. Ian Garry (Men’s Welterweight)

Jordan Williams

• CC Rating: 1479.1
• Division Ranking: 73rd out of 75 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 498th out of 505 men

Ian Garry

• CC Rating: 1590.0
• Division Ranking: 59th out of 75 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 343rd out of 505 men

Williams has had a rough go of it thus far in the UFC. After earning a contract in his second shot on Dana White’s Contender Series, he’s gone 0-2 since joining the big promotion. He dropped his debut against Nassourdine Imavov (also featured on this card) at middleweight. After that, he decided to make the drop to welterweight, where he was submitted in the first round by Mickey Gall. Williams may need a win here to avoid being cut from the roster altogether.

Garry comes into his UFC debut as a highly touted Irish prospect. Having fought his entire career within the Cage Warriors promotion, he strung together a perfect 7-0 record. The capstone of his time at Cage Warriors was winning their welterweight title. In his seven career fights, five have come by way of KO or TKO. Both of his decision wins (including his title win) were unanimous.

Williams is sliding towards the bottom of the barrel and the forecast believes the newcomer ought to be the favorite until Williams proves himself in some way, shape, or form.

CC Projection: Ian Garry (65.4%)

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Nassourdine Imavov (Men’s Middleweight)

Edmen Shahbazyan

• CC Rating: 1655.7
• Division Ranking: 26th out of 67 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 210th out of 505 men

Nassourdine Imavov

• CC Rating: 1608.9
• Division Ranking: 41st out of 67 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 294th out of 505 men

Shahbazyan roared into the UFC, going 4-0 over his first four fights, including three first round knockouts. That stretch brought his professional record to 11-0 and saw him enter the UFC rankings. Then, came the heavy hitters. He was matched up against Derek Brunson and Jack Hermansson (Cage Calculus’s #2 and #4 ranked middleweight contenders respectively). After being finished by Brunson, he lost a unanimous decision to Hermansson and slid lower in the middleweight ranks. That said, the talent is still there and the strength of his opponents dwarfs many in his position.

In his UFC debut, Imavov defeated the aforementioned Williams by unanimous decision. He then lost a razor majority decision to Phil Hawes (also featured on this card). In his most recent bout, he defeated Ian Heinisch by second round KO. The Cage Calculus forecast had Heinisch as a heavy favorite going in. That win earned him this shot against the dangerous Shahbazyan in yet another tough test for the Russian.

The forecast believes Shahbazyan is too highly rated to fall a third time in a row, making him the decent favorite going in.

CC Projection: Edmen Shahbazyan (56.7%)

Phil Hawes vs. Chris Curtis (Men’s Middleweight)

Phil Hawes

• CC Rating: 1626.9
• Division Ranking: 34th out of 67 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 259th out of 505 men

Chris Curtis

• CC Rating: 1690.0
• Division Ranking: 23rd out of 67 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 153rd out of 505 men

Hawes made an absolute statement in his UFC debut, knocking out Jacob Malkoun in just 18 seconds at UFC 254. He’s then gone on to win each of his next two fights in the UFC against the aforementioned Imavov and Kyle Daukaus. Hawes is a dangerous finisher, with only two of his 11 professional victories coming by way of decision. His return to a numbered card shows the UFC sees big things in his future.

Curtis will make his UFC debut at the ripe age of 34. He’s racked up 26 professional wins, with a number of different championships in other promotions. Rumor has it the UFC wasn’t ready to pull the trigger on Curtis, but his training partner, top middleweight contender Sean Strickland, vouched for him to top brass. Curtis has promised he’ll get a finish win to reward the vote of confidence. It wouldn’t be out of character, as Curtis has registered 15 finishes in his career thus far.

The forecast is impressed enough with Curtis’ championship resume to make him a favorite in his debut.

CC Projection: Chris Curtis (59.0%)

Al Iaquinta vs. Bobby Green (Men’s Lightweight)

Al Iaquinta

• CC Rating: 1715.8
• Division Ranking: 20th out of 85 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 119th out of 505 men

Bobby Green

• CC Rating: 1665.5
• Division Ranking: 31st out of 85 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 192nd out of 505 men

After 25 months away, Iaquinta (pictured above) will make his return to the UFC octagon after dropping his most recent bout by decision to Dan Hooker. Iaquinta is perhaps best known for going five rounds with Khabib Nurmagomedov on less than one day’s notice. Iaquinta was preparing for a bout with Paul Felder when Max Holloway was forced to pull out of the title bout with Nurmagomedov on weigh-in day. Iaquinta answered the call the day before the fight and avoided being finished by one of the sport’s most dominant fighters of all time. Iaquinta holds victories over some of the UFC’s very best, inlcuding Kevin Lee (twice), Joe Lauzon, Jorge Masvidal, and Diego Sanchez. Iaquinta may be approaching the latter stages of his career, but he’s been locked in the cage with the best of the best for quite some time.

Bobby Green appeared to be on track toward a late career renaissance having won three straight fights in fewer than three months. However, he tried to make it four in four months and was soundly defeated by the dangerous Thiago Moises. Green attempted to recover against Rafael Fiziev at UFC 265. Many watching the world over would argue he did, but a questionable 30-27 scorecard for Fiziev made the difference in the split decision and Green suffered his second straight loss. This will be Green’s 17th UFC fight.

In this battle of veterans, the forecast favors Iaquinta largely due to his ridiculously high strength of schedule and strength of victory.

CC Projection: Al Iaquinta (57.2%)

Alex Pereira vs. Andreas Michailidis (Men’s Middleweight)

Alex Pereira

• CC Rating: 1510.0
• Division Ranking: 64th out of 67 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 475th out of 505 men

Andreas Michailidis

• CC Rating: 1572.6
• Division Ranking: 50th out of 67 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 377th out of 505 men

Looking at his CC ratings and rankings numbers, one might be forced to wonder why Pereira is anywhere near this fight card at Madison Square Garden, let alone in the featured prelim. However, there is only one man who has ever knocked out Israel Adesanya in any combat sport. Pereira holds that distinction. Pereira does not have an extensive MMA resume (in four fights, he holds a 3-1 record). However, he is an accomplished two division champion in kickboxing, a sport in which he defeated the reigning UFC middleweight champion Adesanya twice (once by unanimous decision, once by KO). Pereira comes in with a point to prove, with his eyes set on gold and his former foe.

Michailidis is the former Cage Survivor middleweight champion. In his UFC debut back in July 2020, he moved up to light heavyweight only to be defeated by Modestas Bukauskas in the first round. He moved back to his normal weight class in his second fight and defeated KB Bhullar by unanimous decision. The CC forecast had Michailidis as a definite underdog against Bukauskas, whereas the Bhullar fight was almost dead even. He’ll face quite the hype train under a bright spotlight for his third bout.

Given the differences between the sports, the CC forecast does not take into account Pereira’s success in kickboxing. Thus, he comes in boasting only his limited MMA record and will thus be the underdog. If he displays the finishing power he did as a kickboxer, his rating will rise quickly.

CC Projection: Andreas Michailidis (58.9%)

Photo Credit: MMAFighting.com