The UFC 268 slate kicks off with an early preliminary card featuring four fights across four different weight classes. It is headlined by a heavyweight bout between Gian Villante and Chris Barnett (pictured above). It also features the UFC debuts of Bruno Souza and CJ Vergara. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

CJ Vergara vs. Ode’ Osbourne (Men’s Flyweight)

CJ Vergara

• CC Rating: 1565.0
• Division Ranking: 23rd out of 32 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 395th out of 505 men

Ode’ Osbourne

• CC Rating: 1518.3
• Division Ranking: 28th out of 32 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 463rd out of 505 men

Vergara makes his UFC debut coming in on a five fight winning streak. He possesses rare power for a flyweight, with all five of those wins coming by way of KO or TKO. After winning the Fury FC Flyweight title, he earned his contract by delivering a 41 second KO in his one and only fight on Dana White’s Contender Series. Vergara comes into a division that is fairly wide open behind champion Brandon Moreno and #1 contender Deiveson Figueiredo. Now would be a good time to make his mark.

September 24, 2016. That was the last time an Osbourne fight did not end in a first round stoppage. Osbourne is on an eight fight streak of first round stoppages, coming out victorious in five of them. Osbourne is a converted featherweight, who was able to make the weight in his flyweight debut. However, his opponent Manel Kape missed by three pounds. The fight proceeded anyway and Osbourne was knocked out by a knee.

Don’t expect this fight to last very long. Given Vergara’s consistency as of late, he has the edge in the forecast.

CC Projection: CJ Vergara (56.7%)

Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Bruno Souza (Men’s Featherweight)

Melsik Baghdasaryan

• CC Rating: 1568.0
• Division Ranking: 59th out of 75 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 389th out of 505 men

Bruno Souza

• CC Rating: 1600.0
• Division Ranking: 46th out of 75 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 316th out of 505 men

The Armenian Baghdasaryan made a statement in his UFC debut with a second round KO of Collin Anglin that earned him a performance of the night bonus. The CC forecast made him a slight underdog against Anglin, who was also making his debut that night. Since losing his pro debut, Baghdasaryan has not lost since, posting a 6-0 record since.

Souza is just two months removed from winning the LFA featherweight championship. Now, he’ll step in to make his UFC debut, filling in for the injured TJ Laramie. Training out of the Machida academy (as in former UFC light heavyweight champion, Lyoto Machida), Souza has posted an impressive 10-1 career record. Only three wins, though, have come by finish (two KOs, one submission). Given that he lost his pro debut, he is on a ten fight streak.

Once again, the forecast believes the newcomer has the skill set and resume to stack up and be the favorite. We shall see Saturday.

CC Projection: Bruno Souza (54.6%)

Dustin Jacoby vs. John Allan (Men’s Light Heavyweight)

Dustin Jacoby

• CC Rating: 1622.3
• Division Ranking: 25th out of 41 light heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 270th out of 505 men

John Allan

• CC Rating: 1517.9
• Division Ranking: 38th out of 41 light heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 464th out of 505 men

Jacoby made his UFC debut way back at UFC 137. After losing his first two fights in the UFC, he left to improve in other promotions. He returned just over a year ago and has looked like a whole new fighter. He’s gone 3-0-1 since returning, with the one draw being against the dangerous Ion Cutelaba. Two of his wins have been first round KOs. Clearly, Jacoby has worked out the kinks and is ready to compete in this light heavyweight division.

Allan thought he had a win in his UFC debut in July 2019, but a failed drug test after the fight turned it to a no contest. He then fell via split decision to Roman Dolidze in December. Allan is still looking for his first official UFC win. He was initially slated to face Aleksa Camur, but an injury forced Camur out last month, with Jacoby stepping in. Allan is dangerous on the ground with a very good submission game.

The forecast is a believer in Jacoby’s career renaissance and has him as the favorite to continue the upward trend.

CC Projection: Dustin Jacoby (64.6%)

Gian Villante vs. Chris Barnett (Men’s Heavyweight)

Gian Villante

• CC Rating: 1515.2
• Division Ranking: 36th out of 40 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 468th out of 505 men

Chris Barnett

• CC Rating: 1568.0
• Division Ranking: 30th out of 40 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 389th out of 505 men

This will be Villante’s 18th fight in the UFC. And, he announced this week, it will be his last. Since making his debut at UFC 159 as part of the Strikeforce invasion, Villante has been a steady presence in the promotion. He’s never threatened UFC gold at any point, having posted a pedestrian 7-10 record. However, he has been a part of a number of great fights, including wins over Saparbeck Safarov, Corey Anderson, and Sean O’Connell. He’ll look to add another to his resume before bowing out into retirement.

Barnett was thrown into the fire in his UFC debut. He was immediately faced against longtime UFC veteran, Ben Rothwell (CC’s #5 ranked heavyweight contender, unranked by the UFC). Barnett was submitted in the second round. Barnett was 21-6 prior to joining the UFC and also has experience kickboxing. Of those 21 wins, 16 came by way of knockout. As evidenced by his showing against Rothwell, he’s not a threat in the submission game. Might be something to look for, as Villante has registered two submission wins in his career.

Barnett faces another veteran, but no one near as talented as Rothwell. The forecast doesn’t hold that loss against him as much and figures he will spoil Villante’s exit from the UFC.

CC Projection: Chris Barnett (57.5%)

Photo Credit: UFC.com